Our pick1–0Correct result
Coventry vs Sunderland: A One-Point Scrap for a Crucial Edge
Only one point separates Coventry and Sunderland after eight Premier League matches, with both sides seeking a result to lift them from the bottom two. Coventry arrive with the stronger recent form, while Sunderland have struggled to score.
📍 Coventry Building Society Arena
Preview written:
All Matchday 9 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Coventry beat Sunderland 3-1. Tatsuhiro Sakamoto opened the scoring in the 17th minute, and Taiwo Awoniyi doubled the home side’s lead in the 37th. Jack Rudoni made it 3-0 in the 52nd minute, assisted by Victor Torp. Sunderland pulled one back in the 67th minute through Enzo Le Fée’s penalty. Omar Alderete was sent off for Sunderland in the 90th minute plus nine.
Sunderland had more possession, 57% to Coventry’s 43%, and more shots, 17 to 12, but Coventry recorded more shots on target, 4-2. The xG figures were 1.72 for Sunderland and 0.79 for Coventry. Rudoni was the top-rated player, with a score of 8.2. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 1-0 Coventry prediction, with win probabilities of 37% for Coventry, 31% for a draw and 32% for Sunderland.
Goals
- 17'Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry
- 37'Taiwo Awoniyi · Coventry
- 52'Jack Rudoni · Victor Torp · Coventry
- 67'Enzo Le Fée (pen.) · Sunderland
Cards
- 7'Victor Torp · Coventry
- 55'Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry
- 90+4'Omar Alderete · Sunderland
- 90+9'Omar Alderete · Sunderland
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: J. Rudoni (Coventry) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Coventry · 4-2-3-1
- 19C. RushworthG
- 27M. van EwijkD
- 12S. MfuniD
- 2E. PinnockD
- 3J. DasilvaD
- 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
- 29V. TorpM
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 5J. RudoniM
- 34Y. GbohoM
- 14T. AwoniyiF
Coach: F. Lampard
Sunderland · 4-2-3-1
- 22R. RoefsG
- 32T. HumeD
- 13L. O'NienD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 17ReinildoD
- 27N. SadikiM
- 34G. XhakaM
- 11C. RiggM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
Coach: R. Le Bris
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Sunderland | 0.8 | 1.8 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | -8 | 5 |
Last meetings
- 2025Sunderland1-1Coventry
- 2025Coventry1-2Sunderland
- 2025Coventry3-0Sunderland
- 2024Sunderland2-2Coventry
- 2023Sunderland0-3Coventry
Absences
Coventry
- OutA. Amenda · Calf Injury
- OutL. Woolfenden · Knee Injury
- OutH. Wright · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Eccles · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulB. Thomas · Leg Injury
Sunderland
- OutD. Ballard · Muscle Injury
- OutR. Mundle · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulW. Isidor · Injury
- DoubtfulN. Mukiele · Face Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Ta Bi · Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.25 – 1.12
- Double chance
- 12 · 69%1X 68% · X2 63%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 22%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 33% – 29%Coventry–Sunderland
- Half-time result
- X · 46%1 29% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%X/X 20% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 7.94.4 – 3.5 · Over 9.5: 28%
- Expected cards
- 3.61.5 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 49%
- Most likely scores
- 1-115%
- 0-011%
- 1-010%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
One point, one big opportunity
Coventry and Sunderland are separated by just one point after eight Premier League games: Coventry have six and sit 19th, while Sunderland are bottom with five. With both in the bottom two of the 20-team table, Saturday’s meeting at the Coventry Building Society Arena offers either side a chance to gain a decisive edge over a close rival.
The numbers make Coventry the slight standings and form leaders, but neither side has built a comfortable cushion. Coventry have lost six of their opening eight matches; Sunderland have lost five and drawn two, with one win between them. A result here could matter well beyond the points gained.
Coventry have the recent momentum
Coventry’s last five show six goals scored and 10 conceded. Their season record reads two wins and six defeats, and they have conceded 15 goals in eight games. At home, they have scored four and let in eight across four matches, so the home setting has not yet brought defensive security.
Sunderland have scored only three times in their last five, conceding 11. They have six goals in total this season, but their away attack has been more productive than their home one: five of those goals came on the road. That contrast offers a possible route to trouble Coventry, whose recent defensive record has been vulnerable.
Recent meetings offer little separation
The last five Championship meetings include two draws, two Coventry wins and one Sunderland victory. Their most recent encounter ended 1-1 in May 2025, while the previous meeting at Coventry saw Sunderland win 2-1. The history is close enough to reinforce the sense that a small detail could decide this one.
Absences on both sides
Coventry will be without A. Amenda, L. Woolfenden and H. Wright, while J. Eccles and B. Thomas are listed as questionable. Sunderland are without D. Ballard and R. Mundle; W. Isidor, N. Mukiele and J. Ta Bi are doubts.
Attacking burden on the available players
With Coventry scoring six times and Sunderland also on six for the season, both sides need more from their attack. Sunderland’s three goals across the last five underline the urgency, while Coventry will look to turn their better recent scoring return into a result at home.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model leans narrowly towards Coventry, with the home side’s recent attacking edge and home advantage enough to tip a close contest. Sunderland’s away scoring record could keep the pressure on, but a tight, low-scoring game looks the likeliest outcome.
Coventry 1-0 Sunderland

