Latvia 0–0 Armenia

Latvia need a response

Latvia arrive on a run of three straight defeats and have gone five matches without a win in this competition. Their Nations League meeting with Armenia on Sunday brings a chance to halt that slide. Armenia have five points and Latvia one after five matches in Group C2.

Both group positions are settled: Armenia will finish third and Latvia fourth. Latvia cannot catch Armenia; Armenia can only draw level with second-placed Cyprus and lose the head-to-head tie-break after a defeat and a draw against them. UEFA results and head-to-head tie-break rules. The model leans towards an away win, though a draw and a Latvia victory together remain more likely.

Goals have been scarce for Latvia

In their five matches in this competition, Latvia have drawn once and lost four times, scoring three goals and conceding eight. They have scored just once across two home games, taking one point from those outings.

Armenia have been more productive in the same five-match competition sample, with one win, two draws and two defeats, and five goals scored. They are without a win in four, however, and their two away matches have brought a draw and a defeat, with no goals scored.

Armenia have the head-to-head edge

Armenia have won four of the last five meetings, with Latvia taking the other; none ended level. The most recent encounter came in September, when Armenia won 2-0 in the Nations League. That record offers the visitors encouragement, although Latvia’s home setting gives them a chance to make this meeting more competitive.

A chance for Armenia’s attack

Armenia’s five goals in their five Nations League matches give them a modest attacking advantage over Latvia, who have scored three. The model also expects the visitors to create more of the goal threat, which helps explain its lean towards Armenia.

Latvia’s home record in this competition is mixed: one draw and one defeat, with one goal scored and two conceded. Armenia have yet to score in either of their two away games, a warning that their overall edge may not translate easily on the road.

Our prediction

Armenia have the stronger points position, a better recent competition scoring return and a clear head-to-head advantage, so they have a cautious edge. But their away scoring record leaves room for a draw or a home response.