UEFA Nations League · League A - 6 
Belgium 4–1 Italy
📍 Roi Baudouin
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Match report
Goals
- 11' Pio Esposito · Michael Kayode · Italy
- 15' Maxim De Cuyper · Charles De Ketelaere · Belgium
- 22' Nathan Ngoy · Belgium
- 26' Jeremy Doku · Charles De Ketelaere · Belgium
- 80' Diego Moreira · Kevin De Bruyne · Belgium
Cards
- 45+1' Sandro Tonali · Italy
- 51' Giorgio Scalvini · Italy
- 81' Gianluigi Donnarumma · Italy
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: J. Doku (Belgium) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Original preview
Italy’s one-point lead over Belgium faces a test in Brussels
Italy sit one point above Belgium in League A, with both sides seeking a strong finish to the group. The visitors arrive unbeaten in four, but Belgium won the latest meeting between them.
Most likely result Away win Medium confidence Missed
One point separates the sides
Italy lead Group A1 on 10 points, one ahead of third-placed Belgium after five games. A Belgium win secures a quarter-final place and also gives them first place if France fail to beat Türkiye. Italy qualify if they avoid defeat or if France lose. Italy top the group with a win, or with a draw if France fail to win. UEFA’s qualification scenarios.
Italy’s unbeaten run, Belgium’s mixed results
Italy have three wins, one draw and one defeat in five Nations League games. Their 3–1 win over France on 12 November extended their unbeaten run to four. Belgium have three wins and two defeats, with a 2–1 away win against Türkiye in their latest game. UEFA’s group results.
Italy have scored 11 goals and conceded six in five group games. Belgium have scored eight and also conceded six. At home in this competition, Belgium have one win and one defeat, scoring three goals and conceding one. Italy’s two away matches have brought a win and a draw, with five goals scored and two conceded.
Belgium struck last time
Italy have won three of the last five meetings, against one Belgium victory and one draw. But the most recent encounter, in September, went Belgium’s way: they won 2-0 in Italy in the Nations League. That result offers a reminder that the table’s narrow gap does not guarantee the same balance on the pitch.
The attacking edge
Italy have scored three more goals than Belgium despite conceding the same number, and they have gone four games unbeaten. Italy have conceded in every group match. Belgium have kept two clean sheets in five games and conceded just once across their two home games in the competition.
Our prediction
Italy have a cautious edge: their unbeaten run and greater goal output point to a side capable of creating more, though Belgium’s home defensive record and win in the latest meeting make a home result a credible alternative. Italy are not clear favourites, and the combined chance of a Belgium win or a draw remains greater than the visitors’ chance of victory.
Pre-match forecast and result
Score after 90 minutes 4–1
- Home win (Belgium) 29%
- Draw 26%
- Away win (Italy) 45%
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Confirmed lineups
Belgium · 4-3-3
- 1S. LammensG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 15N. NgoyD
- 4B. MecheleD
- 5M. De CuyperD
- 7K. De BruyneM
- 6R. LaviaM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 19Diego MoreiraF
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 11J. DokuF
Coach: M. van Bommel
Italy · 4-3-3
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 2M. KayodeD
- 3G. ScalviniD
- 6A. BastoniD
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 18N. BarellaM
- 8S. TonaliM
- 10N. FagioliM
- 16N. PisilliF
- 9F. EspositoF
- 23L. KoleoshoF
Coach: R. Mancini
Match facts
Recent form
Recent results in our provider’s data, oldest first.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Italy | 2.2 | 1.2 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 5 | +2 | 9 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Italy 0-2 Belgium
- 2024 Belgium 0-1 Italy
- 2024 Italy 2-2 Belgium
- 2021 Italy 2-1 Belgium
- 2021 Belgium 1-2 Italy
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.48 – 1.85
- Double chance
- Either team wins74%Home win or draw 55% · Draw or away win 71%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%Over 1.5: 86% · Over 3.5: 43%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Clean sheet
- 16% – 23%Belgium–Italy
- Half-time result
- X · 37%1 26% · 2 37%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 28%1/1 17% · X/X 14%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
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