Belarus 0–2 Albania

The group lead at stake

Albania need to protect their two-point lead over Belarus in the final League C fixture, with first place in Group C1 on the line in Budapest on Sunday. Albania are top on 12 points after five matches, while Belarus sit second on 10.

Two strong runs meet

Belarus have won three matches in a row and are unbeaten in four. In their five UEFA Nations League matches in this competition, they have scored seven goals and conceded two; at home, they have won both matches without conceding.

Albania have also won their last two, and have four victories from five Nations League matches. They have scored 10 goals and conceded three in those five games, while their two away results in the competition have been a win and a defeat.

Albania’s record in the matchup

The recent history gives Albania a clear edge: they have won all three of the sides’ last meetings, with no draws and no Belarus victories. The latest was in September, when Albania beat Belarus 2-0. Two of those three matches featured no more than two goals.

That record is a significant obstacle for Belarus, but their current winning streak and home record in this competition give them reason to believe they can change the pattern.

The leaders’ attacking threat

Albania’s 10 goals across five Nations League matches make them the more productive side in the group, while Belarus have conceded only twice in the same competition. That defensive record is especially strong at home, where they have kept two clean sheets in two matches.

Albania’s recent head-to-head success will also offer confidence, though their away results in this competition have been mixed.

A narrow call

A Belarus win would take them to 13 points, above Albania on 12, and secure first place. Albania win the group with a draw or a victory. UEFA results and head-to-head tie-break rules. The opposing strengths—a strong Belarus defence and Albania’s scoring output—point to a close contest.

Our prediction

A draw is the most likely outcome, though the match looks finely poised and either side could still take the group lead. Belarus’ home resilience meets an Albania side with a stronger scoring record and a perfect recent head-to-head run, so the visitors have reasons to believe they can avoid defeat.