Finland 7–2 San Marino

Third and fourth places already settled

Finland have seven points after five matches in Group C1, while San Marino have none. Finland are assured of third place: they cannot catch Albania, and even if they finish level with Belarus on points, Belarus rank higher after a win and a draw in their head-to-head meetings. San Marino are confirmed fourth. UEFA results and head-to-head tie-break rules.

Finland’s scoring edge

In their five UEFA Nations League matches in this competition, Finland have scored nine goals and conceded four, recording two wins, a draw and two defeats. They have lost their last two matches, but at home they have taken four points from two games and conceded just once.

San Marino have lost all five of their matches in this competition, scoring once and conceding 18. Away from home, they have lost twice, conceding six goals and scoring once.

Finland have won the three most recent meetings

Finland have won the three most recent meetings between the sides. Their latest encounter came in September, when Finland won 7-0 away from home. Each of those three recent meetings featured more than two goals.

Finland’s attack

Finland’s nine goals across five Nations League matches in this competition offer a clear attacking contrast with San Marino, who have scored once and conceded 18 in the same span. Finland will look to carry that scoring threat into the final group match.

Our prediction

Finland have the clear edge, with their stronger scoring record, home results and three recent head-to-head wins all pointing towards a home win. San Marino’s five-match losing run makes that outcome the likeliest, although football always leaves room for an alternative.