Cyprus 1–4 Montenegro

Group positions already settled

Montenegro lead Group C2 with 13 points from five matches, five clear of Cyprus on eight. With one match left, Montenegro have secured first place. Cyprus are assured of second: Armenia can only draw level on points and lose the head-to-head tie-break after a defeat and a draw against Cyprus. The meeting in Limassol closes the group programme. UEFA results and head-to-head tie-break rules.

Cyprus building momentum, Montenegro steady

In five matches in this competition, Cyprus have taken two wins, two draws and a defeat. Their draw in Armenia on 12 November extended their unbeaten run to four. They have scored six goals, conceded four and kept two clean sheets in those five games.

Montenegro are unbeaten in five Nations League matches, with four wins and a draw. They have scored nine goals and conceded five. Both teams have won their two home or away fixtures respectively in the competition: Cyprus at home and Montenegro away.

Recent meetings favour Montenegro

Montenegro have won three of the last four meetings, with the other ending in a draw; Cyprus have not won any of them. The latest encounter came in September, when Montenegro beat Cyprus 2-1 in the Nations League. Two of the four meetings had two goals or fewer, so the previous results offer both a clear edge for Montenegro and some reason not to expect a one-sided contest.

Goals to watch for

Cyprus have scored six goals in their five Nations League matches, while Montenegro have scored nine in the same number. The hosts’ two wins at home in this competition included four goals scored and one conceded. Montenegro’s two away wins brought five goals, though they also conceded three and kept no clean sheets on the road.

Those figures point to attacking threat from both sides, but Montenegro’s stronger overall scoring record and unbeaten run underline why Cyprus will need to make their home advantage count.

Our prediction

Montenegro have a cautious edge: their group lead, unbeaten Nations League run and stronger scoring return all favour the visitors. Cyprus have won both home matches in this competition, however, so a home response remains a plausible alternative.