Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15 
Our pick1–0Missed
Lanus’ defensive edge meets Gimnasia M.’s away-day weakness
Lanus have conceded just twice across their last five matches, while Gimnasia M. have scored only twice and let in six over the same span. The contrast is especially sharp away from home, where Gimnasia M. have won three of 15 league matches.
📍 Estadio Ciudad de Lanus
Preview written:
All Clausura, matchday 15 matches
Match report
Lanus and Gimnasia M. drew 1-1. Lanus went ahead in first-half stoppage time, with Gonzalo Thomás Lobos scoring in the 45+4th minute after an assist from Felipe Peña Biafore. Gimnasia M. equalised in the 72nd minute through Raul Loaiza’s own goal. There were no red cards.
Gimnasia M. had more possession, 55% to 45%, and more shots, 15 to 13, including six on target compared with Lanus’s four. Lanus recorded the higher expected goals figure, 1.2 to 0.73. Lanus’s G. Lobos was the top-rated player, with a 7.7 rating. The 1-1 draw differed from the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction for Lanus, which gave the hosts a 56% chance of winning, a draw 27%, and an away win 17%.
Goals
- 45+4'Gonzalo Thomás Lobos · Felipe Peña Biafore · Lanus
- 72'Raul Loaiza (o.g.) · Gimnasia M.
Cards
- 44'Nahuel Barboza · Gimnasia M.
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: G. Lobos (Lanus) 7.7
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Lanus · 4-2-3-1
- 26N. LosadaG
- 33T. GuidaraD
- 35R. De JesúsD
- 13J. CanaleD
- 6S. MarcichD
- 5F. PeñaM
- 30A. CardozoM
- 16M. SepúlvedaM
- 11E. SalvioM
- 42G. LobosM
- 20A. WlkF
Coach: M. Pellegrino
Gimnasia M. · 4-2-3-1
- 23C. RigamontiG
- 32L. ParedesD
- 2D. MondinoD
- 42L. CarreraD
- 3M. RecaldeD
- 21F. AntoniniM
- 5N. BarbozaM
- 17I. SabatiniM
- 30E. FernándezM
- 26F. LencioniM
- 9A. MódicaF
Coach: D. Franco
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Gimnasia M. | 1.0 | 1.2 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | +7 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | -8 | 19 |
Last meetings
- 2026Gimnasia M.1-0Lanus
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.58 – 0.78
- Double chance
- 1X · 83%12 73% · X2 44%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%Over 1.5: 69% · Over 3.5: 21%
- Both teams score
- 44%
- Clean sheet
- 46% – 21%Lanus–Gimnasia M.
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 40% · 2 16%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 34%X/1 19% · X/X 18%
- Expected corners
- 9.35.8 – 3.5 · Over 9.5: 45%
- Expected cards
- 4.41.9 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 63%
- Most likely scores
- 1-014%
- 1-112%
- 2-012%
- 0-010%
- 2-19%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Lanus’ defensive edge sets the stakes
Lanus have conceded just twice in their last five matches, the standout statistic ahead of their Liga Profesional Argentina meeting with Gimnasia M. That defensive resilience meets an away side struggling to make an impact in front of goal: Gimnasia M. have scored only twice across their own last five.
The league standings underline Lanus’ advantage. In the Clausura Group A table, Lanus are fifth with 24 points from 14 matches, while Gimnasia M. sit seventh on 20. The gap is modest, but Lanus have also been the stronger side over the longer league campaign, taking 13 wins from 31 matches against Gimnasia M.’s 11 from 30.
Recent form sharpens the contrast
Lanus’ recent numbers show a team capable of keeping games tight: six goals scored and two conceded in five matches. Their home record across the league campaign is also solid, with seven wins, five draws and three defeats in 15 games.
Gimnasia M.’s latest run has been more difficult. They have managed two goals and conceded six over five matches, and their away record offers little reassurance: three wins, three draws and nine defeats from 15 league trips. They have scored 11 times away, compared with 24 goals conceded.
A narrow head-to-head reminder
The most recent meeting, in April, ended in a 1-0 win for Gimnasia M. over Lanus. That result is a warning against assuming the hosts will have it all their own way, though the current form and the visitors’ away record point to a different challenge this time.
The finishing burden
Lanus’ goals have tended to arrive later in matches: 11 of their 35 league goals came between the 61st and 75th minutes. Gimnasia M. have been more productive early, scoring 17 of their 30 goals before half-time. But their away scoring average of 0.7 per match makes converting that threat a key obstacle.
Our prediction
Lanus’ defensive strength and Gimnasia M.’s limited away output point towards a controlled home performance rather than a high-scoring contest. PreviaXI’s model also favours Lanus, with the hosts better placed to create the decisive opening.
Lanus 1-0 Gimnasia M.
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Liga Profesional Argentina table All previews that day
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
Liga Profesional Argentina 
Belgrano Cordoba 
Barracas Central Our pick1–0Missed
Belgrano and Barracas Central are level on points after 14 Clausura matches, with only a small goal-difference gap between them. Home advantage and Belgrano’s stronger recent scoring offer a possible difference in a finely balanced contest.
Read preview Liga Profesional Argentina 
Newells Old Boys 
Union Santa Fe Our pick1–0Missed
Newells came from behind to beat Union 3-2 in April, but the recent head-to-head record is finely balanced. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Newells holding a slight home edge.
Read preview Liga Profesional Argentina 
Boca Juniors 
River Plate Our pick1–0Exact score
Boca Juniors and River Plate are separated by four points in their Clausura groups, making this derby a chance for Boca to widen the gap or for River to close it. Both arrive in the top four and in strong recent form.
Read preview Liga Profesional Argentina 
Defensa Y Justicia 
Independiente Our pick1–0
Three of the last five meetings have ended level or been decided by a single goal. That pattern meets two sides with contrasting recent scoring records.
Read preview