Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15

1–0 Full time Sunday 1 November

Our pick1–0Exact score

Boca and River meet with top-four places at stake

Boca Juniors and River Plate are separated by four points in their Clausura groups, making this derby a chance for Boca to widen the gap or for River to close it. Both arrive in the top four and in strong recent form.

📍 Alberto J. Armando

Preview written: Sat 31 Oct 00:37

All Clausura, matchday 15 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Boca Juniors beat River Plate 1-0. River Plate were reduced to ten men in the 10th minute when Lucas Martinez Quarta was sent off. Lautaro Di Lollo scored the only goal in the 27th minute, with Sebastián Villa providing the assist. River Plate lost another player to a red card in the 79th minute, when Gonzalo Montiel was sent off.

The statistics underline Boca Juniors’ control: they had 71% possession and led 16-3 in total shots, with a 6-0 advantage in shots on target. Their expected goals were 1.23 to River Plate’s 0.13. L. Di Lollo was the top-rated player, with a rating of 7.8. The 1-0 result matched the pre-match model’s predicted score; it had assigned Boca Juniors a 46% win probability, a draw 30%, and River Plate a 24% win probability.

Goals

27'Lautaro Di Lollo · Sebastián Villa · Boca Juniors

Cards

10'Lucas Martinez Quarta · River Plate
20'Lautaro Di Lollo · Boca Juniors
43'Facundo Ezequiel Herrera · Boca Juniors
45+4'Marcos Acuña · River Plate
45+5'Leandro Paredes · Boca Juniors
57'Lautaro Blanco · Boca Juniors
68'Alan Velasco · Boca Juniors
77'Enner Valencia · Boca Juniors
79'Gonzalo Montiel · River Plate
82'Rafael Borré · River Plate
90+7'Ayrton Enrique Costa · Boca Juniors

Match stats

Boca JuniorsRiver Plate

71%Possession29%

16Shots3

6Shots on target0

1.23Expected goals (xG)0.13

10Corners2

17Fouls8

1Offsides2

0Saves5

⭐ Top-rated player: L. Di Lollo (Boca Juniors) 7.8

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Boca Juniors · 4-3-3

1Á. MonteroG
17L. LozanoD
2L. Di LolloD
42F. HerreraD
3L. BlancoD
25S. AscacíbarM
5L. ParedesM
18M. DelgadoM
19L. FloresF
16M. MerentielF
22S. VillaF

Coach: R. Arruabarrena

River Plate · 4-3-1-2

41S. BeltránG
29G. MontielD
28L. MartínezD
30N. OtamendiD
21M. AcuñaD
50T. AndradaM
44L. SilvaM
26T. GalvánM
23T. AlmadaM
10Á. CorreaF
18L. BeltránF

Coach: Leonardo Ponzio

Match facts

Recent form

Boca JuniorsWWDWW

River PlateLWDWW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Boca Juniors	1.5	0.8
River Plate	1.4	0.9

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
2	Boca Juniors	16	+13	30
2	River Plate	16	+10	29
3	Boca Juniors	14	+8	27
4	River Plate	14	+6	23

Last meetings

2026River Plate0-1Boca Juniors
2025Boca Juniors2-0River Plate
2025River Plate2-1Boca Juniors
2024Boca Juniors0-1River Plate
2024River Plate2-3Boca Juniors

PreviaXI model

Boca Juniors46%Draw30%River Plate24%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 1-0
Expected goals (model): 1.31 – 0.85
Double chance: 1X · 76%12 70% · X2 54%
Over 2.5 goals: 37%Over 1.5: 64% · Over 3.5: 17%
Both teams score: 43%
Clean sheet: 43% – 27%Boca Juniors–River Plate
Half-time result: X · 47%1 33% · 2 20%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 27%X/X 21% · X/1 17%
Expected corners: 8.24.5 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 32%
Expected cards: 5.52.3 – 3.2 · Over 3.5: 80%
Most likely scores: 1-014%
1-114%
0-012%
2-010%
0-19%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

A derby with points to gain

Boca Juniors and River Plate meet as top-four sides, with Boca able to widen its lead over River in the Clausura groups and River looking to close the four-point gap. Boca are third in Group A with 27 points from 14 matches; River sit fourth in Group B with 23 from the same number of games.

The standings are from separate groups, but the stakes are clear: a victory would strengthen Boca’s position and keep River within reach of the places above. Boca’s goal difference is also better, at +8 to River’s +6.

Boca arrive in stronger form

Boca have won four and drawn one of their last five, scoring 10 goals and conceding three. River’s recent record is also positive, with three wins, a draw and a defeat across their last five; they have scored seven and allowed three.

Boca’s season figures point to a particularly strong home platform: they have lost just once in 15 home league matches, winning eight and drawing six. River have won seven of 14 away games, alongside three draws and four defeats. Both have conceded three times in their latest five-match spells, but Boca have scored three more.

Recent meetings favour Boca

The last five encounters have produced three Boca wins and two River victories, with no draws. Boca won the most recent meeting 1-0 away in April and also took a 2-0 home victory in November 2025. River’s wins in that run came 2-1 at home in April 2025 and 1-0 away in September 2024; Boca also won a 3-2 contest in April 2024.

No listed absences

Neither side has a listed absence for the derby, leaving both teams without a reported personnel issue to shape the preview.

Boca’s home edge

Boca’s record at home is the clearest advantage: 14 goals conceded across 15 league matches, compared with River’s 10 conceded in 14 away games. The recent head-to-head pattern also gives Boca encouragement, though River have shown they can win this fixture on the road.

Our prediction

Boca’s stronger recent scoring and impressive home record give them the edge in a match likely to be decided by fine margins. PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts, with a narrow home win the likeliest outcome.

Boca Juniors 1-0 River Plate

⚑ Report a mistake Editorial policy

Liga Profesional Argentina table All previews that day