Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15 
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente: recent meetings point to a tight contest
Three of the last five meetings have ended level or been decided by a single goal. That pattern meets two sides with contrasting recent scoring records.
📍 Estadio Norberto Tomaghello
Preview written: · Team news checked:
All Clausura, matchday 15 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Independiente | 1.2 | 1.2 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.28 – 1.14
- Double chance
- 12 · 71%1X 68% · X2 61%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 22%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 28%Defensa Y Justicia–Independiente
- Half-time result
- X · 45%1 30% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%X/X 19% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 9.54.7 – 4.8 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.61.9 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 68%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-011%
- 0-010%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Defensa Y Justicia
- Power ratings: Defensa Y Justicia +0.03 goals per game (17th of 30 in Liga Profesional Argentina), Independiente +0.17 (9th).
- Defensa Y Justicia's attack (1.23 goals per game) meets Independiente's defence (0.99 conceded per game).
- Independiente's attack (1.16) meets Defensa Y Justicia's defence (1.20).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 29% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.28 – 1.14 goals: Defensa Y Justicia 39%, draw 29%, Independiente 32%.
Key trends
- At least one side failed to score in 6 of Defensa Y Justicia’s last 8 matches.
- Independiente are unbeaten in their last 5 away matches.
Chance to score
Defensa Y Justicia
- L. Fernández4 goals in 14 games21%
- J. Miritello2 goals in 6 games18%
- D. Barbona5 goals in 23 games17%
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals in 23 games34%
- M. Meza3 goals in 13 games15%
- M. Abaldo5 goals in 30 games14%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Defensa Y Justicia | Independiente | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 12-10-8 | 6-6-3 | 11-10-10 | 6-5-5 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.93 | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| xG per game | 1.51 | 1.64 | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| xG against per game | 1.05 | 0.67 | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| Scored in | 73% | 80% | 77% | 81% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% | 29% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 27% | 20% | 23% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% | 55% | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 80% | 71% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 33% | 35% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 7% | 19% | 19% |
| Shots per game | 12.3 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| Shots on target | 37% | 36% | 30% | 30% |
| Possession | 52% | 54% | 52% | 49% |
| Passes per game | 404.9 | 423.2 | 368.2 | 352.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 82% | 75% | 74% |
| Corners per game | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per game | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Cards per game | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Fouls per game | 11.1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 12.1 |
League matches this season (Liga Profesional Argentina). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Defensa Y Justicia
- 0-157 / 4
- 16-303 / 7
- 31-4511 / 3
- 46-605 / 3
- 61-756 / 5
- 76-90+6 / 12
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Independiente
- 0-154 / 5
- 16-303 / 4
- 31-457 / 7
- 46-6010 / 7
- 61-754 / 7
- 76-90+9 / 8
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 4 |  Talleres Cordoba | 16 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 |  Independiente | 16 | +4 | 24 |
| 6 |  Lanus | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 |  San Lorenzo | 16 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Union Santa Fe | 16 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 |  Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Gimnasia M. | 16 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 |  Platense | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | -7 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 15 | +11 | 33 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | +9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 15 | +10 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 15 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 15 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 | Talleres Cordoba | 15 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 15 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | -12 | 10 |
Table as of
Next matches
Defensa Y Justicia
- Mon 9 NovBoca Juniors – Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
Independiente
- Mon 9 NovIndependiente – Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Defensa Y Justicia 2 wins · 3 draws · Independiente 5 wins
- 18/04/2026Independiente3-1Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 04/06/2024Defensa Y Justicia0-0IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20/02/2023Independiente0-2Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20/07/2022Defensa Y Justicia2-1IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21/08/2021Independiente0-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18/04/2021Independiente1-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 06/12/2020Independiente1-0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15/11/2020Defensa Y Justicia0-0IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27/09/2019Defensa Y Justicia0-1IndependienteCopa Argentina
- 28/07/2019Defensa Y Justicia0-1IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
A narrow gap in the Clausura
Defensa Y Justicia sit fourth in Clausura Group A with 27 points from 14 matches, while Independiente are eighth on 19 points from the same number of games. The standings give the hosts an edge, but the recent head-to-head record suggests there may be little between them on the pitch.
Recent form pulls both ways
Defensa Y Justicia have scored nine goals and conceded four across their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game in that run. Independiente have found the net four times and let in seven over their last five, a less productive spell in front of goal.
Their Clausura group records sharpen the contrast: Defensa have won eight of 14 matches, compared with Independiente’s five. Yet neither side has dominated the overall league picture, and their meeting history offers a reminder that this fixture can stay close.
The meetings have stayed close
The latest encounter, in April 2026, was the exception: Independiente beat Defensa Y Justicia 3-1. Before that, the teams drew 0-0 in June 2024, while Defensa won 2-0 away in February 2023 and 2-1 at home in July 2022. Their August 2021 meeting also finished 0-0.
That means four of the last five meetings have been decided by no more than one goal, with two goalless draws in the sequence. The latest result shows Independiente can break the pattern, but the longer run points toward another closely fought game.
A home edge, but no guarantee
Defensa have scored 18 goals and conceded 14 in 15 home league matches, and their recent scoring form is stronger than Independiente’s. The visitors, however, have scored 19 goals in 16 away league games, so they have shown they can produce on the road. With the hosts’ recent defensive record also solid, the contest may turn on fine margins.
Our prediction
Defensa Y Justicia’s stronger recent scoring and home record give them a slight edge, while the tight history between these teams argues against expecting a one-sided match. PreviaXI’s model also leans toward the hosts in a low-scoring contest.
Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 Independiente
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