Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–2
Copa del Rey opener pits Don Benito’s home solidity against Extremadura 1924’s higher-tier edge
A Copa del Rey tie that tests a fourth-tier side's home resilience against a third-tier club carrying momentum and expected superiority.
Preview written:
Match report
Don Benito 2-4 Extremadura 1924 (AET). The scoring began with G. Santamaria for Don Benito in the 35th minute, assisted by Pavon Lolo, and he doubled the lead in the 44th with an assist from A. Lopez. Extremadura 1924 pulled one back when Dieguito converted a penalty in the 75th minute, then L. Morcillo equalised in the 81st. In extra time I. Burgos scored in the 97th minute, and M. Nordin completed the comeback with a 120+2 goal assisted by Rodri. Don Benito saw C. Llera sent off at 90+5, while L. Morcillo received a red card in the 118th minute.
The match was a Copa del Rey Round of 128 tie decided after extra time. The final score overturned the previaxi model’s pre-match predicted score of 1-2; the model had given home win 31%, draw 23% and away win 46%.
Goals
- 35'G. Santamaria · Pavon Lolo · Don Benito
- 44'G. Santamaria · A. Lopez · Don Benito
- 75'Dieguito (pen.) · Extremadura 1924
- 81'L. Morcillo · Extremadura 1924
- 97'I. Burgos · Extremadura 1924
- 120+2'M. Nordin · Rodri · Extremadura 1924
Cards
- 28'A. Pavon · Don Benito
- 28'L. Lecic · Extremadura 1924
- 50'S. Gomis · Don Benito
- 61'J. Mancha · Don Benito
- 78'L. Morcillo · Extremadura 1924
- 90+3'I. Burgos · Extremadura 1924
- 90+5'C. Llera · Don Benito
- 95'Dieguito · Extremadura 1924
- 96'E. Attipoe · Don Benito
- 118'L. Morcillo · Extremadura 1924
- 118'L. Morcillo · Extremadura 1924
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Don Benito | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Extremadura 1924 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2025Don Benito0-2Extremadura 1924
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.50 – 1.85
- Double chance
- 12 · 77%1X 54% · X2 69%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%Over 1.5: 85% · Over 3.5: 43%
- Both teams score
- 66%
- Clean sheet
- 16% – 22%Don Benito–Extremadura 1924
- Half-time result
- X · 37%1 27% · 2 36%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 28%1/1 18% · X/2 14%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 1-29%
- 2-17%
- 2-27%
- 0-16%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A one-match shot at progressing
This Round of 128 Copa del Rey game hands Don Benito a chance to use home familiarity to upset a team from a higher division, while Extremadura 1924 arrive as the nominal favorites thanks to their status in the Primera División RFEF.
Form: who’s riding momentum?
Don Benito sit fifth in Segunda División RFEF – Group 4 with 14 points from eight matches and a league sequence reading DWLLW, showing inconsistency but the ability to grind out results. Extremadura 1924 are seventh in Primera División RFEF – Group 1 with 13 points from nine games and form WDWWL, a slightly steadier run against tougher opposition in a higher division.
Previous meeting
The clubs met in a friendly on 10 August 2025, when Extremadura 1924 won 2-0 away at Don Benito, the only recent H2H recorded between them.
Tactical contrast: stability vs higher-level quality
The clearest contrast is Don Benito’s strength in home competitive familiarity and lower-league resilience against Extremadura’s edge in quality from playing one tier above. PreviaXI’s model projects both teams to score and sees an open game — Extremadura generate the higher expected goals (1.85 to Don Benito’s 1.5), hinting they create the clearer chances, while Don Benito can still exploit set-pieces and home rhythm.
Our prediction
This tie looks competitive but leans to the visitors’ higher-level sharpness producing the decisive moments. Expect both sides to find the net, with Extremadura edging through on the road.
Don Benito 1-2 Extremadura 1924
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