Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick2–1
Copa del Rey knockout night: what progress would mean for Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandés
A Round of 128 tie at Estadio Las Salinas pits fourth-tier Atlético Tordesillas against third-tier Mirandés, with a place in the last 64 and a vital momentum boost at stake for both clubs.
📍 Estadio Las Salinas
Preview written:
Match report
Atlético Tordesillas and Mirandes finished 3-3 after extra time, with Mirandes winning the penalty shootout 4-2. The scoring began early when Chatun put Atlético Tordesillas ahead in the 6th minute; Chatun doubled the lead in the 29th. A. Conejo made it 3-0 in the 49th minute. Mirandes fought back with Riki reducing the deficit in the 69th minute, A. Arambarri scoring in the 81st, and J. Gonzalez equalising in the 90+6th minute. No red cards were shown during the match.
The match ended level 3-3 and was decided on penalties, 2-4 in Mirandes’ favour. This was a Round of 128 Copa del Rey tie. Before kickoff the PreviaXI model had predicted a 2-1 win for the home side, with probabilities: home 40%, draw 26%, away 34%.
Goals
- 6'Chatun · Atlético Tordesillas
- 29'Chatun · Atlético Tordesillas
- 49'A. Conejo · Atlético Tordesillas
- 69'Riki · Mirandes
- 81'A. Arambarri · Mirandes
- 90+6'J. Gonzalez · Mirandes
Cards
- 61'Chatun · Atlético Tordesillas
- 76'Riki · Mirandes
- 85'A. Conejo · Atlético Tordesillas
- 90'A. Arambarri · Mirandes
- 104'S. Kante · Atlético Tordesillas
- 105+1'J. Castano · Atlético Tordesillas
- 110'A. Verde · Mirandes
- 119'F. Sanchez · Atlético Tordesillas
- 120+2'A. Uzkudun · Mirandes
- 120+2'F. Manja · Atlético Tordesillas
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Tordesillas | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Mirandes | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.50 – 1.36
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 66% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%Over 1.5: 78% · Over 3.5: 32%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Clean sheet
- 26% – 22%Atlético Tordesillas–Mirandes
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 32% · 2 27%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 24%2/2 20% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 2-19%
- 1-08%
- 1-28%
- 0-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Cup status and what’s on the line
The Copa del Rey Round of 128 brings contrasting league contexts. Atlético Tordesillas, competing in the Segunda División RFEF (Group 5), sit 10th with nine points from eight games. Mirandés play two tiers higher in the Primera División RFEF (Group 1), fifth in their table with 14 points from nine matches. Progress would be a statement for Tordesillas — a chance to knock out higher-level opposition, lift the club’s profile and galvanise a mid-table league campaign. For Mirandés, a win would be consolidation: avoiding an upset, maintaining momentum and protecting squad confidence as they chase a strong league finish.
Early-season rhythms and recent form
Form indicators point to differing rhythms. Atlético Tordesillas arrive off a league sequence shown as DWDWL in their domestic campaign, reflecting mixed results and a side capable of occasional resilience. Mirandés’ domestic form reads WLDLW, a similarly variable run but from a higher division; their position fifth in Primera RFEF underlines steadier results against stronger opposition. Neither side has competitive cup history recorded here, so this fixture will test depth and adaptability early in the season.
Knockout-match dynamics
The statistical model underlying the preview leans slightly towards a home win and projects a tight, open game. Expected-goals figures are close — 1.50 for Tordesillas and 1.36 for Mirandés — suggesting both teams can create chances and that the tie could be decided by small margins. Home advantage at Estadio Las Salinas and the chance for a giant-killing give Tordesillas an edge on paper, while Mirandés’ higher-tier experience means they cannot be written off.
Our prediction
This looks like a narrow, competitive cup tie where a single moment or set piece could decide who reaches the last 64. The model’s most likely outcome matches the view that home momentum and a balanced attacking threat tilt the edge to Atlético Tordesillas in a close match. Expect chances at both ends and a late, decisive goal. Atlético Tordesillas 2-1 Mirandes
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Copa del Rey table All previews that day
More Copa del Rey previews
Copa del Rey 
Ciudad de Lucena 
Rayo Majadahonda Our pick1–0Missed
A single cup tie carries far more than pride — progression would boost Ciudad de Lucena’s momentum in a promotion-chasing season and offer Rayo Majadahonda a welcome distraction from league struggles.
Read preview Copa del Rey 
Gimnástica Segoviana 
Cultural Leonesa Our pick1–0Missed
PreviaXI's model's most likely score is Gimnástica Segoviana 1-0 Cultural Leonesa. Progression here would be a boost for the fourth-tier hosts and a missed opportunity for the third-tier visitors.
Read preview Copa del Rey 
Llanera 
Ponferradina Our pick0–1
Llanera sit 16th in the Segunda División RFEF while Ponferradina occupy 10th in the higher Primera División RFEF; contrast in league status underpins this Round of 128 tie. The statistical model favours the visitors.
Read preview Copa del Rey 
RSD Alcalá 
Las Palmas Our pick0–1
Las Palmas head to RSD Alcalá with clear knockout aims: a win takes the Segunda División side into the next round and spares the Canary Islanders an early cup headache. Alcalá will view the tie as a chance to upset a higher-division opponent and energise their season.
Read preview