Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–0Missed
Knockout stakes: Copa del Rey spot on the line for Ciudad de Lucena and Rayo Majadahonda
A single cup tie carries far more than pride — progression would boost Ciudad de Lucena’s momentum in a promotion-chasing season and offer Rayo Majadahonda a welcome distraction from league struggles.
Preview written:
Match report
Ciudad de Lucena 0-1 Rayo Majadahonda. The only goal came in the 90+3rd minute when D. del Pozo scored for Rayo Majadahonda, assisted by N. Celorio. No red cards were shown in the match.
The match statistics show 0 corners for each side and 0 red cards, while yellow cards were 0 for Ciudad de Lucena and 3 for Rayo Majadahonda. The result differed from the PreviaXI model before kickoff, which had predicted a 1-0 win for Ciudad de Lucena and gave home win, draw and away win probabilities of 39%, 29% and 32% respectively.
Goals
- 90+3'D. del Pozo · N. Celorio · Rayo Majadahonda
Cards
- 25'N. Celorio · Rayo Majadahonda
- 80'A. Amaro · Rayo Majadahonda
- 82'G. Calcada · Rayo Majadahonda
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Ciudad de Lucena · 4-4-2
- 13Froilán LealG
- 12Rubén ÁvilaD
- 14Alejandro PavónD
- 5Pablo CarmonaD
- 3Manolo OrtizD
- 16Juanma SeguraM
- 17Miguel Ángel Sánchez AgudoM
- 7Manu MolinaF
- 22Sergio GarciaF
- 6Isra CanoF
- 9Diego Cortés VargasF
Rayo Majadahonda · 4-5-1
- 1Toni FuidiasG
- 3Alejandro Díez SalomónD
- 4Daniel RamosD
- 24Bema SinaD
- 17Óscar MesaD
- 15Neco CelorioM
- 8Antonio AmaroM
- 6David Del PozoM
- 21José CambraM
- 28Iñigo Ramos GalvezF
- 19Manin GonzagaF
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Lucena | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rayo Majadahonda | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.29 – 1.14
- Double chance
- 12 · 71%1X 68% · X2 61%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 23%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 27%Ciudad de Lucena–Rayo Majadahonda
- Half-time result
- X · 45%1 30% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%X/X 18% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-011%
- 0-09%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
What progression means here
This is a straight knockout in the Copa del Rey’s Round of 128: one team advances, the other goes home. For Ciudad de Lucena, still riding a strong league run in Segunda División RFEF Group 4 (third in their table with 15 points from eight games and a recent DWWWW run), a cup win would reinforce momentum and provide confidence across competitions. For Rayo Majadahonda, sitting 16th in Primera División RFEF Group 2 with seven points from nine and a WLLLL run, a victory would be a rare lift and could arrest domestic malaise.
Recent trajectories
Form on paper points to two very different seasons. Ciudad de Lucena arrive after a run that includes three wins from four in the league and sit near the top of their group. Rayo Majadahonda’s league form has been poor, with one win in five leaving them in the lower reaches of their division. Those contrasting trajectories shape expectations: the hosts have rhythm to take into the cup; the visitors need a result to change course.
Tactical edges and match context
PreviaXI’s model projects a tight affair but edges it to Ciudad de Lucena, with expected goals of 1.29 to 1.14 and the most likely score returning a narrow home victory. The figures suggest a match that will not be open at every turn — chances on both sides are possible, but the hosts’ recent confidence and home status should allow them to control phases and press for a decisive moment.
Our prediction
A narrow, low-scoring cup tie looks most likely, with Ciudad de Lucena’s season form and slight edge in chance creation key to a home win. Expect a single-goal margin decided by a set piece or a moment of concentration in the final third.
Ciudad de Lucena 1-0 Rayo Majadahonda
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