Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick1–0Missed
Copa del Rey Round of 128: Gimnástica Segoviana 1-0 Cultural Leonesa tipped to settle knockout tie
PreviaXI's model's most likely score is Gimnástica Segoviana 1-0 Cultural Leonesa. Progression here would be a boost for the fourth-tier hosts and a missed opportunity for the third-tier visitors.
📍 Estadio La Albuera
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Match report
Gimnástica Segoviana 0-1 Cultural Leonesa. The only goal came in the 31st minute from A. Escobar for Cultural Leonesa. The match saw two red cards: B. Tiru of Cultural Leonesa was sent off in the 36th minute and S. Gnamadio of Gimnástica Segoviana received a red card early in the second half, in the 47th minute. No penalties or own goals were recorded.
The statistical story shows no corners for either side and a disparity in yellow cards, 3 for the home team and 1 for the visitors, with red cards even at 1-1. Before kickoff PreviaXI’s model had predicted a 1-0 home win and gave probabilities of 38% home, 29% draw and 33% away victory.
Goals
- 31'A. Escobar · Cultural Leonesa
Cards
- 30'S. Orviz · Gimnástica Segoviana
- 36'B. Tiru · Cultural Leonesa
- 41'S. Gnamadio · Gimnástica Segoviana
- 47'S. Gnamadio · Gimnástica Segoviana
- 47'S. Gnamadio · Gimnástica Segoviana
- 69'A. Ndiaye · Cultural Leonesa
Match stats
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Gimnástica Segoviana · 4-4-2
- 1Diego LlamazaresG
- 2Luis AguadoD
- 4Héctor EspierrezD
- 5Simón LeceaD
- 17Samba GnamadioD
- 21Alfredo PedrazaD
- 6Rodrigo IbañesM
- 7Jaime AlvarezM
- 8Sergio OrvizM
- 24Enzo FacchinF
- 20Izan Chamorro ZamoraF
Cultural Leonesa · 4-4-2
- 13Miguel San RománG
- 20Iago LópezD
- 24Bogdan ȚîruD
- 3Jaime VázquezD
- 15Antxón JasoD
- 17Carlos PomaresD
- 8Assane Ndiaye DioneM
- 23Ángel AlgobiaM
- 10Álex CarderoM
- 33Hugo AllerF
- 19Antón EscobarF
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnástica Segoviana | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cultural Leonesa | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2025Gimnástica Segoviana1-1Cultural Leonesa
- 2024Cultural Leonesa2-3Gimnástica Segoviana
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.25 – 1.13
- Double chance
- 12 · 71%1X 67% · X2 62%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%Over 1.5: 69% · Over 3.5: 22%
- Both teams score
- 49%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 29%Gimnástica Segoviana–Cultural Leonesa
- Half-time result
- X · 45%1 29% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%X/X 19% · 2/2 19%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-011%
- 0-010%
- 0-110%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Knockout meaning for both clubs
PreviaXI’s most likely score projects a narrow home win: Gimnástica Segoviana 1-0 Cultural Leonesa. For Gimnástica, a win would be a major cup scalp and a morale-boosting progression for a team currently listed in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (9th, 10 points from 8). For Cultural Leonesa, who play one level higher in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (13th, 12 points from 9), elimination would be an early missed chance to assert their superiority and generate momentum.
Momentum and recent form
Both sides arrive with short league campaigns under way. Gimnástica Segoviana’s domestic form reads DDDDW in the data provided; Cultural Leonesa’s form is LDWLD. That suggests both teams have been competitive but inconsistent, with Gimnástica carrying a late win into this tie and Cultural oscillating between draws and wins.
Recent meetings point to tight contests
The head-to-head shows recent tight encounters: a 1-1 draw in March 2025 and a 3-2 win for Gimnástica at Cultural in December 2024, both in Primera División RFEF Group 1. Those results underline that matches between these two have been close and capable of producing surprises.
Tactical edge and model reasoning
PreviaXI’s model gives Gimnástica Segoviana a slightly stronger profile for this match: expected goals are close (1.25 vs 1.13) but the home side’s overall likelihood to progress is higher in the comparison metrics. The model also projects more corners for the hosts, implying they may control wide play and apply pressure at Estadio La Albuera, where a single decisive goal could be enough in a tight cup tie.
Our prediction
This is a classic early-round cup tie where marginal edges matter. Home advantage, recent head-to-head competitiveness and a model that favours a narrow home win point to a low-scoring outcome decided by one moment. Expect a tight first half and a decisive chance in the second.
Gimnástica Segoviana 1-0 Cultural Leonesa
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