Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick0–1
Las Palmas eye progress in Copa del Rey trip to RSD Alcalá
Las Palmas head to RSD Alcalá with clear knockout aims: a win takes the Segunda División side into the next round and spares the Canary Islanders an early cup headache. Alcalá will view the tie as a chance to upset a higher-division opponent and energise their season.
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Match report
Las Palmas beat RSD Alcalá 3-1 after extra time in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. The scoring opened in the 49th minute when K. Rodriguez put Las Palmas ahead with an assist from A. Rodriguez. RSD Alcalá levelled through L. Simon in the 67th minute. In extra time K. Rodriguez scored again in the 95th minute to restore Las Palmas’ lead, and M. Fuster made it 3-1 in the 105th minute from a J. Betancor assist. There were no red cards.
The match was decided after extra time. Before kickoff the PreviaXI model had predicted a 0-1 score, with a 26% chance of a home win, 27% for a draw and 47% for an away win.
Goals
- 49'K. Rodriguez · A. Rodriguez · Las Palmas
- 67'L. Simon · RSD Alcalá
- 95'K. Rodriguez · Las Palmas
- 105'M. Fuster · J. Betancor · Las Palmas
Cards
- 18'J. Jimenez · RSD Alcalá
- 28'A. Perez · RSD Alcalá
- 61'M. Lopez · RSD Alcalá
- 67'K. Rodriguez · Las Palmas
- 71'M. Sanchez · RSD Alcalá
- 78'Ato · RSD Alcalá
- 101'P. Moya · RSD Alcalá
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| RSD Alcalá | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Las Palmas | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.06 – 1.51
- Double chance
- X2 · 74%1X 53% · 12 73%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%Over 1.5: 73% · Over 3.5: 26%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 22% – 35%RSD Alcalá–Las Palmas
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 22% · 2 35%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 29%X/X 17% · X/2 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 0-111%
- 1-29%
- 0-29%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Canary Island urgency — what a win means for Las Palmas
Las Palmas arrive in the Round of 128 of the Copa del Rey seeking a straightforward path through a tie that would avoid an early-season distraction. The Segunda División side sit 14th in their league after 11 matches and will see progression as a way to build confidence and maintain focus on their league recovery without extra fixtures later in the season.
Alcalá’s cup moment
RSD Alcalá, competing in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 and also 14th in their table, treat this fixture as a rare high-profile opportunity. A victory over a club two tiers above would boost morale, attract attention and offer the kind of momentum that can lift results at a difficult stage of their campaign.
Recent form and context
Neither side has compiled competitive form data in this dataset beyond domestic league records. In league play, Alcalá’s run reads LDDLL while Las Palmas have WLLDL across their last five. Those sequences suggest both teams arrive with inconsistency, making the one-off nature of a cup tie especially significant for momentum.
Tactical edge
PreviaXI’s model gives Las Palmas the edge: they are expected to create more clear chances and arrive as the more likely winners in a tight game. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Alcalá able to frustrate but Las Palmas having the quality to find a decisive goal.
Our prediction
This looks like a narrow away victory for the Segunda División side — Alcalá will be competitive and make it uncomfortable, but Las Palmas should edge through with a single goal. Expect a tight, structured match where small margins decide the tie.
RSD Alcalá 0-1 Las Palmas
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