Serie A · Matchday 34 
Chapecoense seek a lift as Mirassol visit Arena Condá
Chapecoense need points to climb the Serie A standings, but arrive after a difficult run and face a Mirassol side with the stronger recent defensive record. Both clubs will also be without several players.
📍 Arena Condá
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Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Mirassol | 1.1 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mirassol | 33 | -10 | 37 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 32 | -34 | 21 |
Last meetings
- 2026Mirassol1-1Chapecoense-sc
- 2024Mirassol1-0Chapecoense-sc
- 2024Chapecoense-sc0-1Mirassol
- 2023Chapecoense-sc0-1Mirassol
- 2023Mirassol1-0Chapecoense-sc
Absences
Chapecoense-sc
- OutHeitor · Hamstring Injury
- OutRobert Conceicao · Knee Injury
- OutVinicius Balieiro · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulMauricio Garcez · Inactive
- DoubtfulRafael Carvalheira · Knee Injury
Mirassol
- OutBruno Santos · Red Card
- OutEdson Carioca · Yellow Cards
- OutNegueba · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulJose Aldo · Muscle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.24 – 1.46
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 58% · X2 69%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%Over 1.5: 76% · Over 3.5: 29%
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Clean sheet
- 23% – 29%Chapecoense-sc–Mirassol
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 26% · 2 32%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 25%1/1 18% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.05.0 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 54%
- Expected cards
- 3.71.9 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 50%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 0-19%
- 1-29%
- 1-08%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Mirassol
- Power ratings: Chapecoense-sc -0.64 goals per game (20th of 20 in Serie A), Mirassol +0.06 (13th).
- Chapecoense-sc's attack (1.05 goals per game) meets Mirassol's defence (1.29 conceded per game).
- Mirassol's attack (1.35) meets Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.69).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 43% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.24 – 1.46 goals: Chapecoense-sc 31%, draw 27%, Mirassol 42%.
Points to climb
Chapecoense return to Arena Condá on Wednesday looking to improve their position in the Serie A standings. They sit 20th with 21 points from 32 matches, while Mirassol are 16th on 37 points after 33 games. Chapecoense have the clearer need to make up ground, but Mirassol’s place in the table gives the visitors their own reason to pursue a result.
The home side have won four league matches overall and three at home. Their 21 goals in 15 home games offer some encouragement, though they have conceded 34 at Arena Condá. Mirassol have taken only two wins from 16 away matches, so the setting could give Chapecoense an opportunity to press their case.
A difficult recent run
Chapecoense have lost four of their last five, scoring three goals and conceding 13 across those matches. Their latest five-match sequence includes one win, one draw and three defeats, a run that underlines the challenge facing them.
Mirassol’s last five have brought one win, two draws and two losses. They have scored four and conceded five in that stretch. Neither team arrives in commanding form, but the visitors have been more solid at the back over the recent sample.
Recent meetings favour Mirassol
The most recent encounter ended 1-1 in Serie A in May. Before that, Mirassol won each of the four listed Serie B meetings, including a 1-0 result at Chapecoense in August 2024. The older results offer context, although Wednesday’s match is the first of those five to be played at Arena Condá in this league matchup.
Several absences on both sides
Chapecoense will be without Heitor, Robert Conceicao and Vinicius Balieiro, while Mauricio Garcez and Rafael Carvalheira are questionable. Mirassol are missing Bruno Santos, Edson Carioca and Negueba; Jose Aldo is also questionable.
A test of Chapecoense’s attack
Chapecoense’s 0.6 goals per game across their last five point to the need for a sharper attacking display. Mirassol have allowed five goals in that period, and their stronger overall defensive record offers a platform for an away challenge.
Our prediction
Mirassol’s lower goals-against rate across the campaign and the contrast in recent results give them a narrow edge, despite their limited away wins. PreviaXI’s model also favours the visitors, with a close contest expected.
Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Mirassol
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