Championship · Matchday 14 
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: Recent meetings point to another tight contest
Wrexham’s recent results have been uneven, while Middlesbrough arrive in stronger form at the top of the Championship. Their recent head-to-heads have been close, with neither side scoring more than twice.
📍 Racecourse Ground
Preview written:
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Middlesbrough | 2.3 | 1.3 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | +13 | 28 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | -4 | 14 |
Last meetings
- 2026Middlesbrough1-0Wrexham
- 2026Wrexham2-2Middlesbrough
- 2025Middlesbrough1-1Wrexham
Absences
Wrexham
- OutN. Broadhead · Thigh Injury
- OutL. Cacace · Calf Injury
- OutJ. Windass · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulS. Revan · Hamstring Injury
Middlesbrough
- OutA. Jones · Calf Injury
- DoubtfulR. Pukstas · Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.05 – 1.50
- Double chance
- X2 · 74%1X 53% · 12 73%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%Over 1.5: 73% · Over 3.5: 25%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 22% – 35%Wrexham–Middlesbrough
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 22% · 2 35%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 28%X/X 17% · X/2 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.24.5 – 5.7 · Over 9.5: 56%
- Expected cards
- 3.21.5 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 39%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 0-111%
- 1-29%
- 0-29%
- 0-09%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Middlesbrough
- Power ratings: Wrexham -0.11 goals per game (14th of 24 in Championship), Middlesbrough +0.62 (1st).
- Wrexham's attack (1.23 goals per game) meets Middlesbrough's defence (1.05 conceded per game).
- Middlesbrough's attack (1.67) meets Wrexham's defence (1.34).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.05 – 1.50 goals: Wrexham 26%, draw 27%, Middlesbrough 47%.
A gap in the table
Wrexham have taken 14 points from 13 Championship matches and sit 18th, while Middlesbrough lead the division with 28 points. The contrast in league position is stark, but recent meetings suggest the leaders may have to work hard for their advantage at the Racecourse Ground.
Wrexham need a response
Wrexham’s latest five matches have brought six goals for and seven against, and they have lost three of their last five league games. Their home record offers some encouragement: they have scored 10 goals in six home matches, averaging 1.7 per game.
Middlesbrough are in far stronger form. They have scored 14 times and conceded five across their last five matches, and are unbeaten in their last five league outings. Overall, they have won eight of 13 and lost only once.
Recent meetings stay close
The last three meetings have produced a Middlesbrough win and two draws. Middlesbrough edged the most recent encounter, a 1-0 League Cup result in August; before that, the sides shared a 2-2 draw at Wrexham and a 1-1 draw in Middlesbrough.
That pattern points to a contest that may be tighter than the table suggests. Wrexham have avoided defeat in both recent league meetings, although Middlesbrough’s latest cup victory gives them a fresh reminder of how to edge this matchup.
Several absences for Wrexham
Wrexham will be without N. Broadhead, L. Cacace and J. Windass, while S. Revan is questionable. Middlesbrough are missing A. Jones, with R. Pukstas also a doubt.
Middlesbrough’s scoring edge
Middlesbrough’s recent return of 14 goals in five matches is the clearest attacking difference between the sides. Wrexham have scored six over the same stretch, so their home scoring record will need to carry more weight if they are to challenge the league leaders.
Our prediction
The recent head-to-heads have been close, but Middlesbrough’s stronger form and greater scoring output give them the edge. PreviaXI’s model also favours the visitors in a narrow game.
Wrexham 0-1 Middlesbrough
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