Championship · Matchday 14 
Millwall’s injury crisis looms large against in-form Birmingham
Sixth-placed Birmingham meet 12th-placed Millwall, whose long list of absences could leave them short of options. The hosts arrive with a defensive record that gives them a platform to exploit that situation.
📍 St. Andrew's Stadium
Preview written: · Team news checked:
All Matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Millwall | 1.8 | 1.6 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.52 – 1.16
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 72% · X2 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%Over 1.5: 75% · Over 3.5: 28%
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Clean sheet
- 31% – 22%Birmingham–Millwall
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 34% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 27%X/X 16% · 2/2 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.86.7 – 4.1 · Over 9.5: 63%
- Expected cards
- 3.91.8 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 56%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-010%
- 2-19%
- 2-08%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Birmingham
- Power ratings: Birmingham +0.24 goals per game (5th of 24 in Championship), Millwall +0.17 (6th).
- Birmingham's attack (1.42 goals per game) meets Millwall's defence (1.30 conceded per game).
- Millwall's attack (1.47) meets Birmingham's defence (1.18).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.52 – 1.16 goals: Birmingham 45%, draw 27%, Millwall 28%.
Key trends
- 6 of Birmingham’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 6 of Millwall’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Millwall’s last 8 matches.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches.
Absences
Birmingham
- OutM. Leonard · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutPaik Seung-Ho · Health problems
- DoubtfulA. Priske · Health problems
Millwall
- OutT. Arconte · Ankle Injury
- OutC. De Norre · Muscle Injury
- OutL. Jensen · Muscle Injury
- OutF. Marschall · Injury
- OutJ. Metcalfe · Yellow Cards
- OutM. Servais · Inactive
- DoubtfulM. Luongo · Knee Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Birmingham
- L. Millar4 goals in 8 games32%
- A. Priske5 goals in 12 games31%
- D. Gray4 goals in 11 games20%
Millwall
- J. Coburn2 goals in 5 games18%
- L. Dykes4 goals in 14 games17%
- C. Neghli3 goals in 15 games13%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Birmingham | Millwall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-5-2 | 2-4-0 | 5-3-5 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.77 | 2.33 | 1.77 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 2.00 |
| xG per game | 1.73 | 1.61 | 1.94 | 1.66 |
| xG against per game | 1.35 | 1.45 | 1.31 | 1.41 |
| Scored in | 85% | 100% | 85% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 33% | 31% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 15% | 0% | 15% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 67% | 54% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 100% | 85% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 83% | 77% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 67% | 54% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 13.5 | 14.0 | 14.4 | 14.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| Shots on target | 36% | 34% | 30% | 21% |
| Possession | 51% | 57% | 49% | 49% |
| Passes per game | 387.5 | 436.8 | 360.1 | 379.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 74% | 79% | 71% | 72% |
| Corners per game | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 |
| Corners against per game | 4.3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| Cards per game | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Fouls per game | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 12.0 |
League matches this season (Championship). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Birmingham
- 0-151 / 1
- 16-302 / 1
- 31-455 / 9
- 46-603 / 2
- 61-753 / 0
- 76-90+3 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Millwall
- 0-155 / 1
- 16-305 / 1
- 31-454 / 3
- 46-603 / 4
- 61-751 / 4
- 76-90+7 / 6
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | +7 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | +15 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | -8 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | -14 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | -17 | 5 |
Table as of
Next matches
Birmingham
- Sat 7 NovBirmingham – SwanseaChampionship
- Sat 21 NovStoke City – BirminghamChampionship
- Wed 25 NovBurnley – BirminghamChampionship
Millwall
- Sat 7 NovWest Brom – MillwallChampionship
- Sat 21 NovMillwall – QPRChampionship
- Wed 25 NovStoke City – MillwallChampionship
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Birmingham 2 wins · 4 draws · Millwall 4 wins
- 25/02/2026Millwall3-0BirminghamChampionship
- 04/11/2025Birmingham4-0MillwallChampionship
- 09/03/2024Millwall1-0BirminghamChampionship
- 02/09/2023Birmingham1-1MillwallChampionship
- 18/04/2023Millwall0-1BirminghamChampionship
- 02/11/2022Birmingham0-0MillwallChampionship
- 23/04/2022Birmingham2-2MillwallChampionship
- 04/12/2021Millwall3-1BirminghamChampionship
- 17/02/2021Millwall2-0BirminghamChampionship
- 28/11/2020Birmingham0-0MillwallChampionship
A gap to close in the Championship
Birmingham sit sixth in the Championship with 23 points from 13 matches, five points and six places ahead of Millwall. The hosts have also built a goal difference of +10, compared with Millwall’s +2. With the table setting the stakes, Millwall’s depleted squad faces a demanding test at St. Andrew’s.
Birmingham arrive with momentum
Birmingham have scored 11 goals and conceded just twice across their last five matches. They have lost only twice in 13 league games, and have yet to lose at home, drawing four of their six matches there.
Millwall have scored eight and conceded six in their last five. Their away record is less reassuring: they have conceded 12 goals in six league trips, an average of two per match. That defensive vulnerability could be especially costly against a Birmingham side that has scored 14 times at home.
Recent meetings offer mixed signals
The last five Championship meetings are evenly split in terms of wins: Birmingham have won twice, Millwall twice, and one ended in a draw. Each side has also recorded a convincing victory in the sequence, with Birmingham winning 4-0 at home in November 2025 and Millwall claiming a 3-0 home win in February 2026.
Millwall’s absences shape the contest
Millwall are without T. Arconte, C. De Norre, L. Jensen and F. Marschall through injury, while J. Metcalfe is suspended and M. Servais is inactive. M. Luongo is also questionable with a knee injury. The number of players unavailable could limit Millwall’s choices and make it harder to respond if Birmingham take control.
Birmingham have their own concerns: M. Leonard is out with an Achilles tendon injury and Paik Seung-Ho is unavailable because of health problems. A. Priske is questionable.
Birmingham’s home attack is the key
Birmingham’s 14 home goals in six league matches point to their main route to victory. Their recent defensive record is just as significant: conceding twice in five games suggests they can keep Millwall’s attack under pressure, particularly with the visitors missing several players.
Our prediction
Birmingham’s stronger home record and Millwall’s extensive absences tilt the contest towards the hosts. PreviaXI’s model also favours Birmingham, with the expected balance of chances pointing to a narrow home win rather than a high-scoring game.
Birmingham 1-0 Millwall
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