Championship · Matchday 14 
Charlton under pressure as Bolton visit The Valley
Charlton’s run of defeats has left them level on points with Bolton near the foot of the Championship. The hosts need a response, but their recent defensive record gives the visitors reason to believe.
📍 The Valley
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All Matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Bolton | 1.4 | 2.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.46 – 1.29
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 67% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Clean sheet
- 27% – 23%Charlton–Bolton
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 32% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 24%2/2 19% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.34.9 – 5.4 · Over 9.5: 57%
- Expected cards
- 3.51.7 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 46%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 2-19%
- 1-09%
- 1-28%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Charlton
- Power ratings: Charlton -0.46 goals per game (23rd of 24 in Championship), Bolton -0.46 (22nd).
- Charlton's attack (0.99 goals per game) meets Bolton's defence (1.79 conceded per game).
- Bolton's attack (1.33) meets Charlton's defence (1.45).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.46 – 1.29 goals: Charlton 40%, draw 27%, Bolton 33%.
Key trends
- Charlton have lost their last 3 matches.
- 6 of Bolton’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Bolton’s last 8 matches.
- Charlton failed to score in 4 of their last 8 matches.
Absences
Charlton
- OutR. Apter · Knee Injury
- OutC. Sichenje · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulM. Godden · Muscle Injury
Bolton
- OutE. Erhahon · Thigh Injury
- OutR. Hardie · Hamstring Injury
- OutJ. McAtee · Knee Injury
- OutJ. Nelson · Inactive
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Charlton
- T. Campbell5 goals in 13 games34%
- L. Jones3 goals in 14 games21%
- K. Ramsay1 goals in 4 games17%
Bolton
- S. Dalby4 goals in 13 games22%
- T. Gale3 goals in 13 games17%
- X. Simons1 goals in 7 games8%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Charlton | Bolton | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-5 | 2-3-1 | 4-2-7 | 2-2-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.85 | 0.83 | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.62 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| xG per game | 0.95 | 0.94 | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| xG against per game | 1.60 | 1.17 | 2.02 | 1.92 |
| Scored in | 62% | 67% | 69% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 50% | 23% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 38% | 33% | 31% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% | 62% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 50% | 69% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 33% | 69% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 17% | 54% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 9.8 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 11.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Shots on target | 29% | 24% | 34% | 36% |
| Possession | 42% | 45% | 51% | 45% |
| Passes per game | 329.6 | 350.0 | 419.0 | 374.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 75% | 76% | 80% | 78% |
| Corners per game | 4.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Cards per game | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Fouls per game | 13.1 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 11.7 |
League matches this season (Championship). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Charlton
- 0-153 / 2
- 16-301 / 5
- 31-450 / 3
- 46-603 / 4
- 61-752 / 2
- 76-90+3 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Bolton
- 0-153 / 4
- 16-304 / 1
- 31-453 / 4
- 46-601 / 1
- 61-753 / 5
- 76-90+3 / 7
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | +7 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | +15 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | -8 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | -14 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | -17 | 5 |
Table as of
Next matches
Charlton
- Sat 7 NovCharlton – Sheffield UtdChampionship
- Sat 21 NovWolves – CharltonChampionship
- Tue 24 NovCharlton – LincolnChampionship
Bolton
- Fri 6 NovDerby – BoltonChampionship
- Sat 21 NovBolton – PortsmouthChampionship
- Wed 25 NovBolton – West BromChampionship
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Charlton 3 wins · 2 draws · Bolton 5 wins
- 21/01/2025Bolton1-2CharltonLeague One
- 24/08/2024Charlton2-0BoltonLeague One
- 17/02/2024Bolton3-3CharltonLeague One
- 28/10/2023Charlton0-2BoltonLeague One
- 28/01/2023Charlton1-2BoltonLeague One
- 03/09/2022Bolton3-1CharltonLeague One
- 08/02/2022Bolton2-1CharltonLeague One
- 28/09/2021Charlton1-4BoltonLeague One
- 28/01/2017Bolton1-2CharltonLeague One
- 27/08/2016Charlton1-1BoltonLeague One
Charlton need a response
Bolton arrive at The Valley with both sides on 14 points after 13 Championship matches, making this a meeting between 19th and 20th in the 24-team table. Charlton are bottom of the pair on goal difference, and pressure is building after a run of defeats: they have lost their last three league games and taken just two points from their last five.
A home crowd will hope the familiar setting can help spark a turnaround. Charlton have lost only once in six home league matches, though three of those ended level. Bolton, meanwhile, have won twice and drawn twice in six away games, so the visitors have shown they can collect points on the road.
A worrying defensive trend
Charlton have scored four goals and conceded 11 across their last five matches. Their overall league record is 11 scored and 21 conceded in 13 games, with 16 of those goals against coming away from home. Bolton’s recent five have also brought 11 goals conceded, but they have scored seven compared with Charlton’s four.
Bolton have taken four wins from 13 league outings, one more than Charlton, although they have also lost seven. Their total of 18 goals scored is higher than Charlton’s 11, but a goal difference of minus eight shows defensive concerns remain.
Recent meetings favour Charlton
Charlton have won two of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 away victory in January 2025 and a 2-0 home win the previous August. Bolton won the other two, while the sides drew 3-3 in February 2024. Those encounters came in League One, making this a different test in the Championship.
Absences on both sides
Charlton will be without R. Apter and C. Sichenje, both with knee injuries, while M. Godden is questionable with a muscle injury. Bolton are missing E. Erhahon, R. Hardie and J. McAtee through thigh, hamstring and knee injuries respectively; J. Nelson is also unavailable.
Bolton carry more attacking threat
Bolton’s 18 goals in 13 matches give them the stronger scoring record, and they have found the net nine times away from home. Charlton have scored only five at The Valley, so the hosts need more sharpness in front of goal as well as a tighter defensive display.
Our prediction
Charlton’s home record offers a platform, while Bolton’s greater scoring output makes them a credible threat. PreviaXI’s model leans towards a narrow home win, with Charlton’s advantage at The Valley just enough to edge a close contest.
Charlton 2-1 Bolton
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