Championship · Matchday 14
Portsmouth
Doha time
Swansea

Portsmouth’s injury crisis tests their home edge against Swansea

Portsmouth face a long list of absences against second-placed Swansea, with injuries affecting several areas of the squad. Their home record offers hope, but the visitors arrive with a stronger season tally.

📍 Fratton Park

Preview written: · Team news checked:

Match facts

Recent form

PortsmouthWWDWD
SwanseaWWLLW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·ScoredConceded
Portsmouth1.21.2
Swansea1.51.0

PreviaXI model

Portsmouth38%Draw30%Swansea32%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score
1-0
Expected goals (model)
1.18 – 1.06
Double chance
12 · 70%1X 68% · X2 62%
Over 2.5 goals
39%Over 1.5: 66% · Over 3.5: 19%
Both teams score
46%
Clean sheet
35% – 31%Portsmouth–Swansea
Half-time result
X · 47%1 28% · 2 25%
Half-time / full-time
1/1 · 22%X/X 20% · 2/2 18%
Expected corners
10.06.2 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 53%
Expected cards
3.91.7 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 54%
Most likely scores
  1. 1-114%
  2. 1-012%
  3. 0-011%
  4. 0-111%
  5. 2-18%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Why the model leans towards Portsmouth

  • Power ratings: Portsmouth -0.11 goals per game (13th of 24 in Championship), Swansea 0.00 (11th).
  • Portsmouth's attack (1.13 goals per game) meets Swansea's defence (1.27 conceded per game).
  • Swansea's attack (1.27) meets Portsmouth's defence (1.24).
  • Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
  • Put together, the model expects 1.18 – 1.06 goals: Portsmouth 38%, draw 30%, Swansea 32%.

Power ratings: Championship →

Key trends

  • 3 of the last 4 meetings between the two sides had over 2.5 goals.
  • 6 of Swansea’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
  • Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Absences

Portsmouth

  • OutK. Anderson · Overload
  • OutB. Arthur · Back Injury
  • OutC. Bishop · Knee Injury
  • OutL. Brooke-Smith · Ankle Injury
  • OutC. Ogilvie · Knee Injury
  • OutJ. Swift · Knee Injury

Swansea

  • OutC. Burgess · Achilles Tendon Injury
  • OutRonald · Hamstring Injury
  • OutM. K. Yeo · Injury

Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.

Chance to score

Portsmouth

  • A. Segecic3 goals in 13 games16%
  • M. Milovanović3 goals in 11 games16%
  • T. Devlin2 goals in 12 games12%

Swansea

  • A. Idah4 goals in 12 games19%
  • J. Opoku2 goals in 0 games15%
  • Eom Ji-Sung2 goals in 10 games10%

Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.

Season stats

·PortsmouthSwansea
·AllHomeAllAway
Won-drawn-lost5-4-43-1-28-2-34-0-2
Goals scored per game1.231.671.541.50
Goals conceded per game1.151.671.001.67
xG per game1.241.601.561.31
xG against per game1.191.191.251.54
Scored in69%83%69%83%
Clean sheets31%17%46%33%
Failed to score31%17%31%17%
Both teams scored54%67%38%50%
Over 1.5 goals69%100%69%83%
Over 2.5 goals46%67%62%83%
Over 3.5 goals31%50%31%33%
Shots per game13.817.712.412.0
Shots on target per game3.54.84.74.3
Shots on target25%27%38%36%
Possession52%54%60%57%
Passes per game383.9388.0542.8477.8
Pass accuracy77%76%82%81%
Corners per game5.67.74.14.0
Corners against per game4.85.04.56.5
Cards per game1.51.31.52.0
Fouls per game11.011.79.910.7

League matches this season (Championship). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.

When goals come

Portsmouth

  • 0-153 / 2
  • 16-301 / 3
  • 31-452 / 5
  • 46-603 / 3
  • 61-752 / 3
  • 76-90+4 / 0

Usual formation: 4-2-3-1

Swansea

  • 0-154 / 5
  • 16-302 / 1
  • 31-454 / 3
  • 46-606 / 2
  • 61-752 / 0
  • 76-90+2 / 2

Usual formation: 4-3-3

Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsRecent form
1Middlesbrough1384130:17+1328WWDWW
2Swansea1382320:13+726WLLWW
3Wolves1373323:16+724WWDWL
4West Brom1373319:14+524WDWWL
5Southampton1383228:13+1523WWDWW
6Birmingham1365223:13+1023WLWWW
7Stoke City1372420:16+423WDWLW
8West Ham1364333:18+1522LLWWD
9QPR1355321:16+520LWLWD
10Sheffield Utd1354417:15+219WDWLW
11Portsmouth1354416:15+119DWDWW
12Millwall1353523:21+218WLDLW
13Blackburn1353519:20-118LWLWW
14Bristol City1353515:17-218WDLLD
15Norwich1350823:24-115WWLLL
16Lincoln1343614:23-915LWDLL
17Cardiff1335519:20-114LWDWL
18Wrexham1335515:19-414LLWLD
19Bolton1342718:26-814LLDWL
20Charlton1335511:21-1014LLLDD
21Watford1332812:23-1111LLWLL
22Burnley1316617:25-89DLLDW
23Derby1314811:25-147LDLLD
24Preston13121010:27-175LDLLL

Table as of

Next matches

Portsmouth

  • Sat 7 NovPortsmouth – Stoke CityChampionship
  • Sat 21 NovBolton – PortsmouthChampionship
  • Tue 24 NovPortsmouth – West HamChampionship

Swansea

  • Sat 7 NovBirmingham – SwanseaChampionship
  • Sat 21 NovSwansea – West BromChampionship
  • Tue 24 NovMiddlesbrough – SwanseaChampionship

Head-to-head: last 4 meetings

Portsmouth 1 wins · 1 draws · Swansea 2 wins

  • 10/03/2026Portsmouth1-2SwanseaChampionship
  • 09/12/2025Swansea1-0PortsmouthChampionship
  • 01/01/2025Portsmouth4-0SwanseaChampionship
  • 30/11/2024Swansea2-2PortsmouthChampionship

A difficult test at Fratton Park

The last meeting at Fratton Park ended in a 2-1 Swansea win on 10 March, and the return fixture arrives with the visitors second in the Championship and Portsmouth 11th. Swansea have 26 points from 13 matches, seven more than Portsmouth, but the home side’s six absences make this a particularly demanding assignment.

Portsmouth’s injury list includes forward C. Bishop, alongside C. Ogilvie and J. Swift, both sidelined with knee injuries. B. Arthur has a back injury and L. Brooke-Smith an ankle problem, while K. Anderson is missing through overload. With absences across several positions, Portsmouth may have less flexibility to manage the contest, especially if the game becomes stretched.

Portsmouth’s recent resilience

Portsmouth have scored seven goals and conceded four across their last five matches. Their home results this season offer a useful platform: three wins and a draw from six games at Fratton Park, where they have scored 10 times.

Swansea’s recent five-match return is also seven goals, but they have conceded seven. Their overall record is stronger, with eight wins in 13 league games, including four victories from six away matches. Yet their away defence has been more vulnerable than their home one, conceding 10 goals on the road.

A mixed recent rivalry

Swansea won the most recent meeting 2-1, and also claimed a 1-0 home victory in December 2025. Portsmouth’s 4-0 win in January 2025 shows they can punish Swansea, while the other meeting in this run finished 2-2. The recent series has therefore offered contrasting results rather than a clear pattern.

The absences shape the contest

Portsmouth’s lengthy list is the defining team-news issue. Losing Bishop and several other players through injury could narrow the options available to the home side, while the absence of Anderson adds another name to the list. Swansea are not at full strength either: C. Burgess, Ronald and M. K. Yeo are all out, with Achilles tendon, hamstring and other injury problems respectively.

The difference is one of scale: Portsmouth have six players unavailable to Swansea’s three. That could matter over the course of a close match, even as Portsmouth look to make their home record count.

Swansea’s points threat

Swansea’s 26 points and second-place standing underline the challenge, while their 20 goals in 13 league matches point to a side capable of scoring consistently. Portsmouth, however, have been productive at home and conceded only four goals across their last five overall, giving them reason to believe they can keep the contest tight.

Our prediction

Portsmouth’s home strength and recent defensive resilience make this look close, but their injury crisis could limit their options. PreviaXI’s model leans narrowly towards the hosts, who have enough at Fratton Park to edge a low-scoring contest.

Portsmouth 1-0 Swansea

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