Portsmouth’s injury crisis tests their home edge against Swansea
Portsmouth face a long list of absences against second-placed Swansea, with injuries affecting several areas of the squad. Their home record offers hope, but the visitors arrive with a stronger season tally.
📍 Fratton Park
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All Matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Swansea | 1.5 | 1.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.18 – 1.06
- Double chance
- 12 · 70%1X 68% · X2 62%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%Over 1.5: 66% · Over 3.5: 19%
- Both teams score
- 46%
- Clean sheet
- 35% – 31%Portsmouth–Swansea
- Half-time result
- X · 47%1 28% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%X/X 20% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 10.06.2 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 53%
- Expected cards
- 3.91.7 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 54%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-012%
- 0-011%
- 0-111%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Portsmouth
- Power ratings: Portsmouth -0.11 goals per game (13th of 24 in Championship), Swansea 0.00 (11th).
- Portsmouth's attack (1.13 goals per game) meets Swansea's defence (1.27 conceded per game).
- Swansea's attack (1.27) meets Portsmouth's defence (1.24).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.18 – 1.06 goals: Portsmouth 38%, draw 30%, Swansea 32%.
Key trends
- 3 of the last 4 meetings between the two sides had over 2.5 goals.
- 6 of Swansea’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Absences
Portsmouth
- OutK. Anderson · Overload
- OutB. Arthur · Back Injury
- OutC. Bishop · Knee Injury
- OutL. Brooke-Smith · Ankle Injury
- OutC. Ogilvie · Knee Injury
- OutJ. Swift · Knee Injury
Swansea
- OutC. Burgess · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutRonald · Hamstring Injury
- OutM. K. Yeo · Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Portsmouth
- A. Segecic3 goals in 13 games16%
- M. Milovanović3 goals in 11 games16%
- T. Devlin2 goals in 12 games12%
Swansea
- A. Idah4 goals in 12 games19%
- J. Opoku2 goals in 0 games15%
- Eom Ji-Sung2 goals in 10 games10%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Portsmouth | Swansea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-4 | 3-1-2 | 8-2-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.54 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| xG per game | 1.24 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.31 |
| xG against per game | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.54 |
| Scored in | 69% | 83% | 69% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 17% | 46% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 31% | 17% | 31% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 67% | 38% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 100% | 69% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 67% | 62% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 50% | 31% | 33% |
| Shots per game | 13.8 | 17.7 | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Shots on target | 25% | 27% | 38% | 36% |
| Possession | 52% | 54% | 60% | 57% |
| Passes per game | 383.9 | 388.0 | 542.8 | 477.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 77% | 76% | 82% | 81% |
| Corners per game | 5.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Cards per game | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Fouls per game | 11.0 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 10.7 |
League matches this season (Championship). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Portsmouth
- 0-153 / 2
- 16-301 / 3
- 31-452 / 5
- 46-603 / 3
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+4 / 0
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Swansea
- 0-154 / 5
- 16-302 / 1
- 31-454 / 3
- 46-606 / 2
- 61-752 / 0
- 76-90+2 / 2
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +13 | 28 | |
| 2 | 13 | +7 | 26 | |
| 3 | 13 | +7 | 24 | |
| 4 | 13 | +5 | 24 | |
| 5 | 13 | +15 | 23 | |
| 6 | 13 | +10 | 23 | |
| 7 | 13 | +4 | 23 | |
| 8 | 13 | +15 | 22 | |
| 9 | 13 | +5 | 20 | |
| 10 | 13 | +2 | 19 | |
| 11 | 13 | +1 | 19 | |
| 12 | 13 | +2 | 18 | |
| 13 | 13 | -1 | 18 | |
| 14 | 13 | -2 | 18 | |
| 15 | 13 | -1 | 15 | |
| 16 | 13 | -9 | 15 | |
| 17 | 13 | -1 | 14 | |
| 18 | 13 | -4 | 14 | |
| 19 | 13 | -8 | 14 | |
| 20 | 13 | -10 | 14 | |
| 21 | 13 | -11 | 11 | |
| 22 | 13 | -8 | 9 | |
| 23 | 13 | -14 | 7 | |
| 24 | 13 | -17 | 5 |
Table as of
Next matches
Portsmouth
- Sat 7 NovPortsmouth – Stoke CityChampionship
- Sat 21 NovBolton – PortsmouthChampionship
- Tue 24 NovPortsmouth – West HamChampionship
Swansea
- Sat 7 NovBirmingham – SwanseaChampionship
- Sat 21 NovSwansea – West BromChampionship
- Tue 24 NovMiddlesbrough – SwanseaChampionship
Head-to-head: last 4 meetings
Portsmouth 1 wins · 1 draws · Swansea 2 wins
- 10/03/2026Portsmouth1-2SwanseaChampionship
- 09/12/2025Swansea1-0PortsmouthChampionship
- 01/01/2025Portsmouth4-0SwanseaChampionship
- 30/11/2024Swansea2-2PortsmouthChampionship
A difficult test at Fratton Park
The last meeting at Fratton Park ended in a 2-1 Swansea win on 10 March, and the return fixture arrives with the visitors second in the Championship and Portsmouth 11th. Swansea have 26 points from 13 matches, seven more than Portsmouth, but the home side’s six absences make this a particularly demanding assignment.
Portsmouth’s injury list includes forward C. Bishop, alongside C. Ogilvie and J. Swift, both sidelined with knee injuries. B. Arthur has a back injury and L. Brooke-Smith an ankle problem, while K. Anderson is missing through overload. With absences across several positions, Portsmouth may have less flexibility to manage the contest, especially if the game becomes stretched.
Portsmouth’s recent resilience
Portsmouth have scored seven goals and conceded four across their last five matches. Their home results this season offer a useful platform: three wins and a draw from six games at Fratton Park, where they have scored 10 times.
Swansea’s recent five-match return is also seven goals, but they have conceded seven. Their overall record is stronger, with eight wins in 13 league games, including four victories from six away matches. Yet their away defence has been more vulnerable than their home one, conceding 10 goals on the road.
A mixed recent rivalry
Swansea won the most recent meeting 2-1, and also claimed a 1-0 home victory in December 2025. Portsmouth’s 4-0 win in January 2025 shows they can punish Swansea, while the other meeting in this run finished 2-2. The recent series has therefore offered contrasting results rather than a clear pattern.
The absences shape the contest
Portsmouth’s lengthy list is the defining team-news issue. Losing Bishop and several other players through injury could narrow the options available to the home side, while the absence of Anderson adds another name to the list. Swansea are not at full strength either: C. Burgess, Ronald and M. K. Yeo are all out, with Achilles tendon, hamstring and other injury problems respectively.
The difference is one of scale: Portsmouth have six players unavailable to Swansea’s three. That could matter over the course of a close match, even as Portsmouth look to make their home record count.
Swansea’s points threat
Swansea’s 26 points and second-place standing underline the challenge, while their 20 goals in 13 league matches point to a side capable of scoring consistently. Portsmouth, however, have been productive at home and conceded only four goals across their last five overall, giving them reason to believe they can keep the contest tight.
Our prediction
Portsmouth’s home strength and recent defensive resilience make this look close, but their injury crisis could limit their options. PreviaXI’s model leans narrowly towards the hosts, who have enough at Fratton Park to edge a low-scoring contest.
Portsmouth 1-0 Swansea

