Championship · Matchday 14 
Blackburn’s home edge meets Stoke’s defensive resilience
Blackburn’s stronger home record faces a Stoke side with the better league position and a tighter recent defence. The contrast could make a close contest at Ewood Park.
📍 Ewood Park
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All Matchday 14 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Stoke City | 1.5 | 1.2 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.29 – 1.03
- Double chance
- 1X · 71%12 70% · X2 59%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%Over 1.5: 68% · Over 3.5: 20%
- Both teams score
- 47%
- Clean sheet
- 36% – 28%Blackburn–Stoke City
- Half-time result
- X · 46%1 31% · 2 23%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 24%X/X 19% · 2/2 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.95.9 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 64%
- Expected cards
- 4.12.0 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 57%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-012%
- 0-011%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Blackburn
- Power ratings: Blackburn -0.27 goals per game (18th of 24 in Championship), Stoke City -0.29 (20th).
- Blackburn's attack (1.12 goals per game) meets Stoke City's defence (1.40 conceded per game).
- Stoke City's attack (1.11) meets Blackburn's defence (1.39).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.29 – 1.03 goals: Blackburn 41%, draw 30%, Stoke City 29%.
Key trends
- 6 of Blackburn’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings with Blackburn.
Absences
Blackburn
- OutA. Forshaw · Hip Injury
- OutM. Litherland · Muscle Injury
- OutL. Miller · Achilles Tendon Injury
- DoubtfulR. Morishita · Injury
Stoke City
- OutA. Ampah · Knee Injury
- OutE. Bocat · Injury
- OutA. Cresswell · Knee Injury
- OutE. Galbraith · Yellow Cards
- OutS. Gallagher · Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Blackburn
- A. Guðjohnsen9 goals in 12 games38%
- O. Afolayan5 goals in 14 games21%
- R. Morishita2 goals in 13 games10%
Stoke City
- J. McGlynn2 goals in 8 games12%
- J. Devenny2 goals in 8 games12%
- R. Boženík3 goals in 11 games11%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Blackburn | Stoke City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-5 | 4-0-2 | 7-2-4 | 3-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.46 | 1.83 | 1.54 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.17 | 1.23 | 1.67 |
| xG per game | 0.98 | 1.45 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| xG against per game | 1.77 | 1.28 | 1.46 | 2.07 |
| Scored in | 85% | 100% | 92% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 17% | 38% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 15% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 83% | 62% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 100% | 77% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 83% | 62% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 17% | 31% | 33% |
| Shots per game | 11.2 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 12.7 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Shots on target | 34% | 33% | 31% | 30% |
| Possession | 47% | 46% | 47% | 43% |
| Passes per game | 406.8 | 417.5 | 373.5 | 342.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 80% | 77% | 78% |
| Corners per game | 5.9 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 |
| Cards per game | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Fouls per game | 11.1 | 10.0 | 13.1 | 13.3 |
League matches this season (Championship). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Blackburn
- 0-153 / 3
- 16-303 / 3
- 31-454 / 2
- 46-606 / 4
- 61-750 / 3
- 76-90+2 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Stoke City
- 0-154 / 1
- 16-305 / 3
- 31-453 / 0
- 46-603 / 4
- 61-751 / 3
- 76-90+3 / 6
Usual formation: 3-4-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | +7 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | +15 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | -8 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | -14 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | -17 | 5 |
Table as of
Next matches
Blackburn
- Sat 7 NovBlackburn – West HamChampionship
- Sun 22 NovBurnley – BlackburnChampionship
- Wed 25 NovWatford – BlackburnChampionship
Stoke City
- Sat 7 NovPortsmouth – Stoke CityChampionship
- Sat 21 NovStoke City – BirminghamChampionship
- Wed 25 NovStoke City – MillwallChampionship
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Blackburn 3 wins · 2 draws · Stoke City 5 wins
- 11/04/2026Stoke City1-1BlackburnChampionship
- 04/10/2025Blackburn1-1Stoke CityChampionship
- 12/03/2025Stoke City1-0BlackburnChampionship
- 06/11/2024Blackburn0-2Stoke CityChampionship
- 10/02/2024Blackburn3-1Stoke CityChampionship
- 25/11/2023Stoke City0-3BlackburnChampionship
- 10/03/2023Stoke City3-2BlackburnChampionship
- 27/08/2022Blackburn0-1Stoke CityChampionship
- 18/04/2022Blackburn0-1Stoke CityChampionship
- 27/11/2021Stoke City0-1BlackburnChampionship
A gap to close at Ewood Park
Blackburn have a chance to narrow the gap to Stoke in the Championship table, but their home advantage meets a visiting side that has been more consistent across the campaign. Stoke sit seventh on 23 points, five clear of 13th-placed Blackburn after 13 matches.
The key contrast is clear: Blackburn’s home record offers a platform, while Stoke arrive with a stronger overall points return and fewer goals conceded. Blackburn have won four of six at Ewood Park; Stoke have won three of six away from home.
Stoke’s recent defensive edge
Both teams have scored seven goals across their last five matches, but their defensive records differ sharply. Blackburn have conceded eight in that spell, compared with four for Stoke. That recent resilience complements Stoke’s season total of 16 goals conceded, while Blackburn have let in 20.
Blackburn’s 11 goals in six home league matches show they can make their ground count. Stoke, meanwhile, have taken seven wins from 13 games overall and have four clean sheets, against Blackburn’s three. The visitors’ main vulnerability is away from home, where they have conceded 10 goals in six matches.
Recent meetings have been tight
The last two Championship meetings ended 1-1, including the most recent encounter in April. Stoke won 2-0 at Ewood Park in November 2024, while Blackburn’s latest home win in this five-match sequence was a 3-1 result in February 2024.
Absences on both sides
Blackburn will be without A. Forshaw, M. Litherland and L. Miller, while R. Morishita is questionable. Stoke are without A. Ampah, E. Bocat, A. Cresswell, E. Galbraith and S. Gallagher.
Blackburn’s home attack against Stoke’s back line
Blackburn’s four home wins offer reason for confidence, but Stoke’s four clean sheets and recent run of conceding just four goals in five matches point to a difficult test. The visitors’ away defence has been less secure than their overall record, giving Blackburn an opening if they can turn home pressure into clear chances.
Our prediction
Blackburn’s home advantage gives them a narrow edge, while Stoke’s defensive improvement should keep the match close. PreviaXI’s model leans towards the hosts, and a low-scoring game looks likelier than an open contest.
Blackburn 1-0 Stoke City
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