Championship · Matchday 14 
Can Cardiff Trouble West Ham in a Test of Championship Ambition?
Cardiff’s home strength gives them a route to upset a West Ham side with the stronger league position and attacking record. The visitors have won all six of their away matches, but Cardiff have yet to lose at home.
📍 Cardiff City Stadium
Preview written:
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| West Ham | 2.5 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | -1 | 14 |
Last meetings
- 2019Cardiff2-0West Ham
- 2018West Ham3-1Cardiff
- 2014Cardiff0-2West Ham
- 2013West Ham3-2Cardiff
- 2013West Ham2-0Cardiff
Absences
Cardiff
- OutC. Chambers · Knee Injury
- OutD. Lawlor · Hamstring Injury
- DoubtfulK. Bielik · Inactive
- DoubtfulC. Robinson · Inactive
West Ham
- OutK. Mavropanos · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulK. Lamadrid · Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.82 – 2.02
- Double chance
- 12 · 78%1X 57% · X2 65%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%Over 1.5: 90% · Over 3.5: 53%
- Both teams score
- 73%
- Clean sheet
- 13% – 16%Cardiff–West Ham
- Half-time result
- 2 · 35%1 31% · X 34%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 27%1/1 21% · X/2 13%
- Expected corners
- 12.16.8 – 5.3 · Over 9.5: 75%
- Expected cards
- 4.01.5 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 56%
- Most likely scores
- 1-18%
- 1-28%
- 2-27%
- 2-17%
- 1-35%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards West Ham
- Power ratings: Cardiff +0.09 goals per game (7th of 24 in Championship), West Ham +0.60 (2nd).
- Cardiff's attack (1.64 goals per game) meets West Ham's defence (1.35 conceded per game).
- West Ham's attack (1.95) meets Cardiff's defence (1.55).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.82 – 2.02 goals: Cardiff 35%, draw 22%, West Ham 43%.
The last meeting between Cardiff and West Ham ended in a 2-0 Cardiff victory in March 2019. Their next encounter sets up a clear favourite-versus-underdog question: can Cardiff’s home resilience unsettle a West Ham side aiming to protect its place in the Championship’s upper reaches?
A gap in the table
West Ham arrive eighth with 22 points from 13 matches, eight points and nine places above 17th-placed Cardiff. The visitors have also scored 33 goals, compared with Cardiff’s 19, giving them a strong case as favourites. But Cardiff’s record at their own ground offers a reason not to dismiss the hosts: they have three wins and three draws in six home league games, without a defeat.
Goals at both ends
Cardiff’s last five matches have produced nine goals for and eight against, a lively return that suggests they can make West Ham work defensively. Their broader league record is less convincing, with three wins, five draws and five defeats.
West Ham have scored 11 times across their last five outings, conceding seven. They have six wins overall and, notably, have won all six away league matches. Cardiff’s home record against goals conceded is much tighter than their away form, though: they have let in six at home, compared with 14 on the road.
Cardiff’s most recent H2H win
Cardiff’s 2-0 win in the latest meeting is the standout result in a five-game sequence that otherwise favours West Ham. The Hammers won three of those encounters, including a 3-1 victory in Cardiff in December 2018. The historical record gives the hosts a reminder that they can beat this opponent, but West Ham’s stronger current campaign makes repeating that result a challenge.
Absences to monitor
Cardiff will be without C. Chambers and D. Lawlor, while K. Bielik and C. Robinson are questionable. West Ham are missing K. Mavropanos, with K. Lamadrid also questionable.
Where the contest could turn
Cardiff’s home scoring average of 2.2 goals per match gives them a credible attacking threat, particularly against a West Ham side that has conceded in recent games. West Ham, however, have scored 15 times in six away league matches and can punish any defensive lapse. Their overall goal difference of plus 15, against Cardiff’s minus one, underlines the difference in league performance.
Our prediction
Cardiff’s home record should make this competitive, and their recent scoring suggests they can trouble the visitors. Yet West Ham’s perfect away record and greater attacking output tilt the balance towards an away win, with both sides capable of finding the net.
Cardiff 1-2 West Ham
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