2–3 Full time Saturday 24 October

Our pick2–1Missed

West Ham vs Southampton: Saints Chase a Foothold in the Promotion Picture

Southampton travel to London Stadium five points behind third-placed West Ham, looking to close the gap in a Championship clash with real consequences for the race at the top.

📍 London Stadium

All Matchday 12 matches

Match report

Southampton made a quick start, with Kuryu Matsuki scoring in the 2nd minute and James Bree doubling the lead in the 11th. West Ham responded through Kyle Walker-Peters in the 24th minute, assisted by Divine Mukasa, but Lewis Dobbin restored Southampton's two-goal advantage in the 34th. Tomáš Souček pulled one back in added time (90+3), assisted by Taty Castellanos, but it was not enough as the match ended 2-3.

West Ham had the bulk of the possession at 56% and outshot Southampton 28 to 15, with 10 shots on target to 7 and 14 corners to 6. Expected goals were nearly level at 1.60 for West Ham and 1.61 for Southampton. The top-rated player was Southampton's Daniel Peretz with 8.6. Before kickoff, the PreviaXI model had West Ham as the most likely winner at 54% with a predicted score of 2-1, and gave Southampton a 24% chance of winning.

Goals

2'Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton
11'James Bree · Southampton
24'Kyle Walker-Peters · Divine Mukasa · West Ham
34'Lewis Dobbin · Southampton
90+3'Tomáš Souček · Taty Castellanos · West Ham

Cards

18'Manor Solomon · West Ham
51'Caspar Jander · Southampton
78'Lewis Dobbin · Southampton

Match stats

West HamSouthampton

56%Possession44%

28Shots15

10Shots on target7

1.60Expected goals (xG)1.61

14Corners6

16Fouls7

1Offsides1

4Saves10

⭐ Top-rated player: Daniel Peretz (Southampton) 8.6

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

West Ham · 4-4-2

1M. HermansenG
2K. Walker-PetersD
15K. MavropanosD
3M. KilmanD
5MoratoD
20J. BowenM
14D. MukasaM
7A. EngelsM
10M. SolomonM
11V. CastellanosF
17M. KantéF

Coach: Nuno Espírito Santo

Southampton · 4-2-3-1

1Daniel PeretzG
14J. BreeD
5J. StephensD
13K. SchlotterbeckD
3R. ManningD
30J. Ward-ProwseM
8C. JanderM
27K. MatsukiM
10F. AzazM
7Léo ScienzaM
11L. DobbinF

Coach: Tonda Eckert

Match facts

Recent form

West HamWDDWW

SouthamptonWLWWD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
West Ham	2.7	1.1
Southampton	1.9	0.9

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
3	West Ham	11	+18	22
8	Southampton	11	+11	17

Last meetings

2026Southampton1-4West Ham
2025West Ham1-1Southampton
2024Southampton0-1West Ham
2023West Ham1-0Southampton
2022Southampton1-1West Ham

Absences

West Ham

OutK. Lamadrid · Injury

Southampton

OutM. Roerslev Rasmussen · Health problems
DoubtfulF. Downes · Ankle Injury
DoubtfulC. Larin · Hamstring Injury

PreviaXI model

West Ham54%Draw22%Southampton24%

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 2.14 – 1.39
Double chance: 12 · 78%1X 76% · X2 46%
Over 2.5 goals: 68%
Both teams score: 67%
Expected corners: 10.66.2 – 4.4 · Over 9.5: 61%
Expected cards: 4.12.2 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 57%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Southampton arrive in east London eighth in the Championship, with 17 points from 11 games. A win at London Stadium on Saturday would trim the gap to West Ham to two points and keep them firmly in contention for the top places. For the hosts, sitting third on 22 points, it is a chance to stretch a healthy lead over a side still within touching distance of the leading group.

Context and stakes

West Ham’s goal difference of +18 is the best in the top half of the table, and they have built their position on a strong home base. Southampton’s +11 suggests a side that is competitive but not yet consistent enough to pressure the very best. Both sides know that dropped points in October can be expensive when the season turns into a sprint.

Form on both sides

West Ham arrive with a WWDDW run in their last five, scoring 16 goals and conceding only three. At home they have been a formidable force, netting 15 times in five matches and keeping two clean sheets.

Southampton have been just as hard to predict. Their recent run of DWWLW has yielded seven goals and three conceded, but their away record is more modest: one win, two draws and two defeats in five trips, with five goals scored on the road.

Head-to-head

This fixture has rarely offered much in the way of goals. West Ham have won three of the last five meetings, the most recent being a 4-1 win over Southampton in the League Cup in August. Southampton have not beaten West Ham in that span, and two of the five matches ended level.

Team news

West Ham are without K. Lamadrid, who is out injured. Southampton face a bigger selection headache: M. Roerslev Rasmussen is unavailable because of health problems, while F. Downes (ankle) and C. Larin (hamstring) are doubts for the trip east.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s statistical model favours West Ham, and the numbers match the picture painted by the recent form. The hosts have the stronger home record and the more potent attack, and they are likely to create the clearer chances. Southampton have shown they can score, but their away output has been limited, and their injury concerns may restrict their options. Expect a fairly open game, with both sides finding the net, but West Ham’s home momentum should be enough to edge the contest.

West Ham 2-1 Southampton

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