Championship · Matchday 12 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Blackburn vs Wrexham: Ewood's recent meetings point to a tight contest
Blackburn and Wrexham are separated by a single point in the Championship's middle third, and their recent meetings suggest a narrow margin at Ewood Park on Saturday.
📍 Ewood Park
Match report
Blackburn beat Wrexham 2-0 in round 12 of the Championship Regular Season. Andri Guðjohnsen opened the scoring in the 44th minute, with no assist recorded. Guðjohnsen struck again in the 79th minute, assisted by Todd Cantwell, to seal the win. No red cards were shown.
Wrexham had 56% of the possession to Blackburn's 44%, and they also took more shots, 23 to 16. Blackburn were the more accurate side, with 5 shots on target to Wrexham's 1, and their expected goals stood at 1.61 against 1.74. Wrexham made 3 saves, while Blackburn made none. The top-rated player was A. Guðjohnsen, with a rating of 8.9. Before kickoff, PreviaXI's model had predicted a 1-0 home win, with probabilities of 38% home win, 29% draw and 33% away win. The result matched the home-win outcome, though the winning margin was wider than the predicted scoreline.
Goals
- 44'Andri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn
- 79'Andri Guðjohnsen · Todd Cantwell · Blackburn
Cards
- 16'Harry Pickering · Blackburn
- 27'Dominic Hyam · Wrexham
- 45'Matty James · Wrexham
- 65'Sam Morsy · Blackburn
- 80'Todd Cantwell · Blackburn
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) 8.9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Blackburn · 4-2-3-1
- 22B. TóthG
- 2R. AlebiosuD
- 17H. CarterD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 3H. PickeringD
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 11J. FevrierM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
Coach: Tony Mowbray
Wrexham · 3-4-2-1
- 22A. PattersonG
- 6J. WorrallD
- 5D. HyamD
- 2C. DoyleD
- 12I. KaboréM
- 37M. JamesM
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 3J. EkomiéM
- 28S. SmithM
- 17C. O'HareM
- 19K. MooreF
Coach: P. Parkinson
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Wrexham | 1.4 | 1.5 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | -1 | 14 |
Last meetings
- 2026Blackburn0-2Wrexham
- 2025Wrexham1-1Blackburn
- 2024Blackburn4-1Wrexham
Absences
Blackburn
- OutA. Forshaw · Hip Injury
- OutM. Litherland · Muscle Injury
- OutL. Miller · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutY. Ohashi · Hamstring Injury
- OutY. Ribeiro · Hamstring Injury
- DoubtfulS. Wharton · Achilles Tendon Injury
Wrexham
- OutN. Broadhead · Thigh Injury
- OutL. Cacace · Calf Injury
- OutM. Cleworth · Muscle Injury
- OutB. Sheaf · Injury
- OutG. Thomason · Thigh Injury
- OutJ. Windass · Ankle Injury
- DoubtfulS. Revan · Hamstring Injury
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.23 – 1.14
- Double chance
- 12 · 71%1X 67% · X2 62%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams score
- 49%
- Expected corners
- 10.26.0 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 56%
- Expected cards
- 3.62.0 – 1.6 · Over 3.5: 47%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Blackburn sit 10th in the Championship with 15 points from 11 games, while Wrexham are 14th on 14 points. With 24 clubs in the division, a single win could move either side noticeably up or down the table, which gives this Saturday fixture more weight than its mid-table position suggests.
Blackburn’s home form against Wrexham’s travelling struggles
Blackburn have won three of their five home league matches this season and have scored 9 goals at Ewood, although two home defeats have kept them from building momentum. Their last five games have brought 10 goals scored and 7 conceded, and their latest run reads LWWDW.
Wrexham have been less settled away from home. They have won once in five trips, drawn three and lost once, and their recent form of WLDWL shows the same inconsistency. Over their last five, they have scored 8 and conceded 11.
What the recent meetings tell us
The last three meetings between these sides suggest that margins are rarely wide. Wrexham’s 2-0 win at Ewood on 1 January was their most recent victory over Blackburn, and it came in a league game that broke a pattern of goals at both ends. Before that, the teams drew 1-1 at the Racecourse Ground in November.
The one heavier result was Blackburn’s 4-1 win in the FA Cup in January 2024, but that was a cup tie rather than a league fixture. The league history points towards a game where chances are scarce and one moment can decide it.
Team news
Blackburn will be without five players: A. Forshaw (hip injury), M. Litherland (muscle injury), L. Miller (Achilles tendon injury), Y. Ohashi and Y. Ribeiro (both hamstring injuries). S. Wharton is a doubt with an Achilles problem.
Wrexham also have a long list of absentees. N. Broadhead (thigh), L. Cacace (calf), M. Cleworth (muscle), B. Sheaf (injury), G. Thomason (thigh) and J. Windass (ankle) are all missing, and S. Revan is doubtful with a hamstring injury.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s statistical model favours Blackburn, and the football case supports that. They have the stronger home record and have created more of the chances in recent weeks, while Wrexham’s away form has been unreliable. Both sides have been missing key players, so the game could be tight and cagey, with a single goal likely to settle it.
Blackburn 1-0 Wrexham
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