Championship · Matchday 12 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Cardiff vs Birmingham: Can Birmingham's winning run survive the trip to Wales?
Birmingham have conceded just three goals in their last five matches and arrive at Cardiff City Stadium as one of the division's form teams. Cardiff, meanwhile, are looking to climb out of the relegation zone.
📍 Cardiff City Stadium
Match report
Cardiff beat Birmingham 1-0 in round 12 of the Championship. The only goal came in the 31st minute, scored by Yousef Salech with an assist from Ollie·Tanner. No red cards were shown in the match.
The numbers favoured Cardiff, who had 16 total shots to Birmingham's 7 and recorded 2.4 expected goals against 0.91. Their shots on target were 4 to 2, while possession was close at 52% to 48%. Yousef Salech was the top-rated player with a 7.7 rating. Before kickoff, the model gave Cardiff a 39% chance of winning and predicted a 2-1 score, so the home win matched the most likely outcome, though the final scoreline differed.
Goals
- 31'Yousef Salech · Ollie·Tanner · Cardiff
Cards
- 50'Jhon Elmer Solís Romero · Birmingham
- 81'Christoph·Klarer · Birmingham
- 82'Joel Bagan · Cardiff
- 90+5'Chris Davies · Birmingham
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Y. Salech (Cardiff) 7.7
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Cardiff · 4-2-3-1
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 2W. FishD
- 3J. BaganD
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 11O. TannerM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 9Y. SalechF
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
Birmingham · 4-2-3-1
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 32L. VázquezF
Coach: C. Davies
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Birmingham | 1.8 | 1.0 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | +1 | 11 |
Last meetings
- 2024Birmingham0-1Cardiff
- 2023Cardiff0-1Birmingham
- 2023Birmingham1-3Cardiff
- 2023Birmingham0-2Cardiff
- 2022Cardiff1-0Birmingham
Absences
Cardiff
- OutC. Chambers · Knee Injury
- OutR. Colwill · Ankle Injury
- OutD. Lawlor · Hamstring Injury
- OutG. Osho · Red Card
- DoubtfulY. Salech · Inactive
Birmingham
- OutM. Leonard · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutPaik Seung-Ho · Health problems
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.59 – 1.54
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 64% · X2 61%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams score
- 63%
- Expected corners
- 11.36.3 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 68%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.7 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 57%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Birmingham have conceded just three goals in their last five matches, and that solidity is the reason they travel to Cardiff on Saturday with real momentum behind them.
Fourth against nineteenth
The gulf between the two sides is stark. Birmingham sit fourth in the 24-team Championship with 20 points from 11 games and a goal difference of +9. Cardiff are 19th on 11 points, with a goal difference of +1. For the visitors, this is a chance to keep pushing towards the top of the table. For Cardiff, it is a chance to close the gap on the teams above them.
Birmingham’s winning streak
Birmingham’s recent results read WWWDW, and they have been almost impossible to beat away from home. They have won five of their 11 league matches on the road, drawn five and lost only once. Their five-game run has also produced 12 goals, an average of 2.4 per match.
Cardiff have been hard to beat at home but struggle to win. They have taken two wins and three draws from their home games this season without a single defeat, yet their away form tells a different story, with four defeats in six trips. Their last five league matches have produced 11 goals scored and seven conceded.
Head-to-head
Cardiff have dominated recent meetings, winning four of the last five. Birmingham’s only victory in that spell came in December 2023, when they won 1-0 at Cardiff. Cardiff’s most recent win was a 1-0 success at Birmingham in April 2024.
Team news
Cardiff will be without C. Chambers (knee injury), R. Colwill (ankle injury), D. Lawlor (hamstring injury) and G. Osho, who is suspended after a red card. Y. Salech is a doubt. Birmingham are missing M. Leonard, who is out with an Achilles tendon injury, and Paik Seung-Ho, who is unavailable because of health problems.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model narrowly favours Cardiff, and this looks like a tight, competitive match rather than a one-sided contest. Cardiff’s home record and their ability to score in front of their own supporters should give them the edge, even with several first-team absences. Birmingham’s defence is their greatest asset and could keep the game close, but a late chance or two in a contest between two evenly matched sides is likely to decide it.
Cardiff 2-1 Birmingham
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