1–2 Full time Saturday 24 October

Our pick0–1Correct result

Valencia vs Villarreal preview: Villarreal's unbeaten record over Valencia

Valencia have won just once in their last five league games and are still looking for a home win this season. Villarreal arrive with a run of five unbeaten meetings against their neighbours to protect.

📍 Estadio de Mestalla

All Matchday 10 matches

Match report

Villarreal came from behind to beat Valencia 2-1 in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Valencia took the lead in the 38th minute through a penalty by José Luis García Vayá. Alex Freeman equalised for Villarreal in the 69th minute, assisted by Sergi Cardona Bermúdez, and Georges Mikautadze scored the winner in the 90+6th minute, assisted by Alberto Moleiro. Pape Gueye of Villarreal was sent off in the 79th minute, and Harvey Elliott of Valencia was dismissed in the 89th.

Villarreal had 62% of the possession against Valencia's 38%, and they took 19 shots to Valencia's 9. Their expected goals total of 1.52 was also higher than Valencia's 1.17, although Valencia had more shots on target, with 5 to Villarreal's 3. G. Mikautadze was the top-rated player of the match with a rating of 7.8. Before kick-off, the PreviaXI model had Villarreal as the most likely winner at 40%, with Valencia at 32% and a draw at 28%, and it predicted a 0-1 scoreline. The result was a Villarreal win, but the final margin differed from that projection.

Goals

38'José Luis García Vayá (pen.) · Valencia
69'Alex Freeman · Sergi Cardona Bermúdez · Villarreal
90+6'Georges Mikautadze · Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal

Cards

34'Daniel Raba Antolín · Valencia
37'Renato Veiga · Villarreal
43'Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal
59'Tajon Buchanan · Villarreal
60'Pablo Maffeo · Valencia
62'Guido Rodríguez · Valencia
79'Pape Gueye · Villarreal
89'Harvey Elliott · Valencia
89'Harvey Elliott · Valencia

Match stats

ValenciaVillarreal

38%Possession62%

9Shots19

5Shots on target3

1.17Expected goals (xG)1.52

6Corners9

18Fouls9

2Offsides2

1Saves4

⭐ Top-rated player: G. Mikautadze (Villarreal) 7.8

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Valencia · 4-4-2

1S. DimitrievskiG
24Pablo MaffeoD
5César TárregaD
12J. de HaasD
14José GayàD
27David OtorbiM
2G. RodríguezM
18PepeluM
11Luis RiojaM
8Javi GuerraF
7A. DanjumaF

Coach: J. Aguirre

Villarreal · 4-4-2

25P. GulácsiG
15S. MouriñoD
8J. FoythD
12Renato VeigaD
3A. FreemanD
11Ilias AkhomachM
16C. MaciaM
18P. GueyeM
17T. BuchananM
7Gerard MorenoF
22Ayoze PérezF

Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Match facts

Recent form

ValenciaLWLDD

VillarrealLWWLD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Valencia	0.7	1.7
Villarreal	1.4	1.4

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
12	Villarreal	9	0	9
19	Valencia	9	-9	6

Last meetings

2026Villarreal2-1Valencia
2025Valencia0-2Villarreal
2025Villarreal1-1Valencia
2024Valencia1-1Villarreal
2024Villarreal1-0Valencia

Absences

Valencia

OutS. Canos · Knee Injury
OutD. Lopez · Knee Injury
OutU. Sadiq · Muscle Injury
DoubtfulJ. Copete · Knee Injury
DoubtfulD. Foulquier · Knee Injury

Villarreal

DoubtfulN. Pepe · Eye injury

PreviaXI model

Valencia32%Draw28%Villarreal40%

Predicted score: 0-1
Expected goals (model): 1.23 – 1.40
Double chance: 12 · 72%1X 60% · X2 68%
Over 2.5 goals: 49%
Both teams score: 54%
Expected corners: 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 47%
Expected cards: 4.42.0 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 63%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Valencia have won just once in their last five league matches, and their struggles at home are the sharpest worry as they prepare to face Villarreal at Mestalla on Saturday.

Valencia’s slide and the pressure at Mestalla

Valencia sit 19th in the 20-team table with six points from nine games, and their goal difference of -9 reflects a side that has been leaking goals, conceding 15 in nine matches. Most concerning is that they have yet to win in front of their own supporters this season. Villarreal, in 12th with nine points and a goal difference of zero, are not in a comfortable position either, but they have the more stable base to build on.

Villarreal’s steadier spell

Villarreal have scored seven goals in their last five games and conceded five, while Valencia have scored five and conceded six over the same period. Villarreal’s away form has also been productive, with seven goals in five road trips and a single defeat in their last five away outings.

Villarreal’s unbeaten run over Valencia

Villarreal have not lost to Valencia in any of their last five meetings. They have won three and drawn two, conceding only three goals across the five games. The most recent meeting at Mestalla ended 2-0 to Villarreal in October 2025, while the clash in February 2026 was won 2-1 by the visitors’ hosts-in-waiting at El Madrigal. For Valencia, the sequence is a painful reminder that they have not beaten their rivals in this recent run.

Valencia’s injury problems

Valencia are dealing with a long list of absences. Sergio Canos, D. Lopez and U. Sadiq are all set to miss the match, with knee and muscle problems. J. Copete and D. Foulquier are doubtful, both with knee injuries. Villarreal face only one fitness concern, with N. Pepe a doubt because of an eye injury.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Villarreal, and we see the same picture on the pitch. Villarreal’s better away record, their unbeaten run against Valencia and Valencia’s struggles to score and keep clean sheets all point to a tight, cagey game. Valencia’s list of absences makes a home win harder to imagine, so expect the visitors to edge it narrowly.

Valencia 0-1 Villarreal

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