Bundesliga · Matchday 8 
Our pick2–1Missed
Union Berlin and Köln seek a crucial edge in tight Bundesliga gap
Just two points separate 14th-placed Köln and 17th-placed Union Berlin after seven matches. Union’s home advantage meets Köln’s stronger recent defensive record in a contest where a small margin could matter.
📍 An der Alten Försterei
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Janik Haberer put Union Berlin ahead in the 10th minute, assisted by Tim Skarke. The visitors equalised in the 79th minute through Malek El Mala, with Alessio Castro-Montes providing the assist. Neither side scored again, and there were no red cards.
The statistics showed 1. FC Köln had more of the ball, with 63% possession to Union Berlin’s 37%, and registered 14 shots to the hosts’ five. Both teams had two shots on target, while Köln also led the expected-goals count, 1.22 to 0.91. M. El Mala was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.0. The 1-1 result differed from the pre-match model’s 2-1 prediction for Union Berlin, which had assigned the hosts a 42% win chance, a draw 25% and an away win 33%.
Goals
- 10'Janik Haberer · Tim Skarke · Union Berlin
- 79'Malek El Mala · Alessio Castro-Montes · 1. FC Köln
Cards
- 37'Zeno Van Den Bosch · Union Berlin
- 45+1'Jahmai Simpson-Pusey · 1. FC Köln
- 53'Paul Okon-Engstler · 1. FC Köln
- 54'Kastriot Imeri · Union Berlin
- 69'Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln
- 76'Aljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin
- 77'Derrick Köhn · Union Berlin
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: M. El Mala (1. FC Köln) 8
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Union Berlin · 4-2-3-1
- 1F. RønnowG
- 19J. HabererD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 5M. FriedrichD
- 17D. KöhnD
- 13A. SchäferM
- 8R. KhediraM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 30K. ImeriM
- 21T. SkarkeF
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
1. FC Köln · 4-4-2
- 1M. SchwäbeG
- 28S. SebulonsenD
- 2J. SchmiedD
- 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
- 3B. SosaD
- 37L. MainaM
- 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
- 5T. KraußM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 30M. BülterF
- 10S. El MalaF
Coach: René Wagner
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| 1. FC Köln | 1.1 | 1.6 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Last meetings
- 20261. FC Köln5-0Union Berlin
- 2026Union Berlin2-21. FC Köln
- 20251. FC Köln0-1Union Berlin
- 20241. FC Köln3-2Union Berlin
- 2023Union Berlin2-01. FC Köln
Absences
Union Berlin
- OutA. Ilic · Illness
- OutA. Markgraf · Knee Injury
- OutS. Nsoki · Muscle Injury
- OutR. Skov · Injury
- OutF. Uduokhai · Red Card
1. FC Köln
- OutR. Ache · Thigh Injury
- OutT. Dallinga · Knee Injury
- OutT. Hubers · Knee Injury
- OutI. Rondic · Injury
- OutE. Skhiri · Ankle Injury
- OutR. van den Berg · Muscle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.55 – 1.33
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 67% · X2 58%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 33%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Clean sheet
- 27% – 21%Union Berlin–1. FC Köln
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 33% · 2 27%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 25%2/2 19% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.25.9 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 56%
- Expected cards
- 4.32.3 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 63%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 2-19%
- 1-08%
- 1-28%
- 0-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A narrow gap with real stakes
Köln arrive in Berlin two points and three places above Union Berlin, with both sides having played seven Bundesliga matches. The visitors sit 14th on eight points; Union are 17th on six, with a markedly worse goal difference. With the table so tight between them, this meeting offers either side a chance to create some breathing room.
Union can draw encouragement from playing at An der Alten Försterei, where they have taken five of their six goals this season. Köln, however, have yet to win away in the league: their three road matches have all ended in defeat.
Recent signs point in different directions
Union’s last five matches have brought three goals scored and 11 conceded, a difficult defensive run that reflects their wider season total of 18 goals against in seven games. They have conceded six times in four home league fixtures.
Köln have been more restrained at the back lately, allowing five goals across their last five matches while scoring four. Their overall away record remains a concern, but the recent figures suggest they may be better equipped to keep this close than Union’s latest results imply.
The cup result changes the backdrop
The clubs met in the DFB Pokal on 27 October, when Köln won 5-0 at home. Their recent league meetings have been much tighter: the last two ended 2-2 and 1-0 to Union, respectively. That contrast gives Union a chance to respond, while Köln can carry confidence from a decisive cup result.
Absences could shape the contest
Union are without A. Ilic through illness, A. Markgraf and S. Nsoki with knee and muscle injuries, R. Skov through injury, and F. Uduokhai after a red card. Köln’s absentees include R. Ache, T. Dallinga and T. Hubers, alongside I. Rondic, E. Skhiri and R. van den Berg.
Home goals against Köln’s away test
Union have scored five goals at home in the league, compared with just one on the road. That home output offers a route to exploiting Köln’s record of seven goals conceded in three away matches. But Köln’s five goals allowed across their last five outings suggest Union may need to be more efficient than they have been recently.
Our prediction
Union’s home scoring record gives them a narrow edge, while Köln’s recent defensive improvement points towards a competitive match rather than another wide margin. The statistical model also favours the hosts, with a small advantage in expected attacking output.
Union Berlin 2-1 1. FC Köln
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Bundesliga table All previews that day
More Bundesliga previews
Bundesliga 
Eintracht Frankfurt 
Hamburger SV Our pick2–1Correct result
Hamburger SV are set to be without six players and have another doubtful as they return to Frankfurt days after a 3-1 cup defeat. The absences loom large in a Bundesliga meeting between two sides separated by one point.
Read preview Bundesliga 
Bayern München 
Borussia Dortmund Our pick2–1Missed
Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund both have 17 points after seven matches, with the top spot on the line at the Allianz Arena. Bayern’s prolific home scoring faces a Dortmund side that has conceded just twice in its last five games.
Read preview Bundesliga 
Bayer Leverkusen 
VfB Stuttgart Our pick2–1Missed
Bayer Leverkusen’s stronger start and home record make them favourites, but recent head-to-head results show VfB Stuttgart can unsettle them. A high-scoring contest could give the visitors a route into the game.
Read preview Bundesliga 
Borussia Mönchengladbach 
SC Paderborn 07 Our pick1–0Missed
Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost six of their first seven league matches and need a result to climb the standings. Paderborn arrive with the stronger recent form, but Gladbach’s attacking output offers a route to a narrow home win.
Read preview