Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: recent meetings point to a close contest
Toulouse and Strasbourg are level on 10 points in Ligue 1, with Toulouse one place higher. Their last five meetings have been evenly split, setting up another tight encounter.
📍 Stadium Municipal
Preview written:
Match report
Final result: Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 10–9; Shots on target: 5–4; Corners: 7–1; Expected goals: 1.08–0.57.
Goals
- 45+1' Santiago Hidalgo · Sion Oppong · Toulouse
- 56' Mark McKenzie · Cristian Casseres · Toulouse
- 67' Giovanni Reyna · Strasbourg
- 76' Thomas Jorgensen · Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse
Cards
- 27' Abdoul Karim Coulibaly · Strasbourg
- 38' Gessime Yassine · Strasbourg
- 38' Christ Tape · Toulouse
- 40' Thomas Jorgensen · Toulouse
- 60' Niko Sigur · Toulouse
- 88' Jacobo Ortega · Strasbourg
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: S. Hidalgo (Toulouse) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Toulouse · 4-4-2
- 16G. RestesG
- 94I. DialloD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 12C. TapéD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 14N. SigurM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 11S. OppongM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 20C. TengstedtF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
Strasbourg · 4-3-3
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 6I. DoukouréD
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 36OsoD
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 10G. ReynaM
- 80Gessime YassineF
- 40C. HarderF
- 20M. GodoF
Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Strasbourg | 1.9 | 2.1 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 9 | -2 | 10 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse
- 2025 Toulouse 1-0 Strasbourg
- 2025 Strasbourg 2-1 Toulouse
- 2025 Toulouse 1-2 Strasbourg
- 2024 Toulouse 0-0 Strasbourg
Absences
Toulouse
- Out A. Donnum · Yellow Cards
- Out R. Messali · Thigh Injury
- Doubtful M. Niflore · Knee Injury
Strasbourg
- Out J. Panichelli · Knee Injury
- Doubtful F. Balde · Leg Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.65 – 1.29
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 70% · X2 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 34%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- 27% – 19%Toulouse–Strasbourg
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 35% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 28%2/2 17% · X/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 8.24.5 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 32%
- Expected cards
- 3.92.0 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 54%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Level on points in Ligue 1
Toulouse sit 12th and Strasbourg 13th after nine matches, both on 10 points. Toulouse are one place higher on goal difference or other tie-breakers, so little separates the sides as they meet at Stadium Municipal on Friday.
Contrasting recent runs
Toulouse have taken two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five league matches, scoring eight goals and conceding six. Their latest result was a defeat. At home, they have won once, drawn once and lost twice in four league games.
Strasbourg’s last five have brought one win and four defeats, with eight goals scored and 11 conceded. Their most recent league match was a win, but their away record remains a concern: one victory and four defeats in five trips, with 13 goals conceded.
A finely balanced recent rivalry
The last five meetings are exactly level: two wins apiece and a draw. Their most recent encounter, in May, ended with Toulouse winning 2-1 away at Strasbourg. The previous meeting in Toulouse was also decided by a single goal, as the hosts won 1-0.
That pattern gives the home side a slight psychological edge, but the broader record offers little to separate them. Two of the five meetings featured no more than two goals, while the latest two both produced narrow victories.
Suspensions and fitness concerns
Toulouse will be without A. Donnum through suspension and R. Messali because of a thigh injury. M. Niflore is questionable with a knee injury. Strasbourg are missing J. Panichelli with a knee injury, while F. Balde is questionable with a leg injury.
Defensive gaps offer openings
Strasbourg have conceded 19 goals in nine league matches and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Their away fixtures have been particularly difficult, with 13 goals conceded in five matches. Toulouse have been more solid overall, conceding 13 in nine, though they have scored only three times at home.
The recent head-to-head record suggests a close game, but Toulouse’s stronger last-five return and Strasbourg’s defensive problems point towards the hosts having the edge.
Our prediction
Toulouse’s recent league form has been steadier, and their latest meeting with Strasbourg ended in an away win. Strasbourg can still threaten, but their away defensive record makes a narrow home victory the likelier outcome.
Toulouse 2-1 Strasbourg
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