Toulouse Look to Extend Their Unbeaten Run Over Troyes

Twelfth and seventeenth in an 18-team Ligue 1 table tell most of the story before a ball is kicked. Estac Troyes sit second from bottom with four points from seven matches and a goal difference of minus eleven, while Toulouse have nine points and are comfortably clear of the relegation fight. On Sunday at the Stadium Municipal, the home side have a chance to widen that gap, and a recent history against their visitors that they will be keen to keep intact.

A gap that could widen

Toulouse are not yet out of trouble, but they are moving in the right direction. Their last five league games have brought two wins, two draws and a defeat. Troyes, by contrast, have lost five in a row and have conceded 15 goals in their last five outings.

Toulouse’s steadier hand

Toulouse have scored 10 goals in their last five matches and conceded seven, and their attack has been the more reliable of the two sides’ recent work. Their home record is still uneven, with one win, no draws and two defeats from three games at the Stadium Municipal, so they will want to start stronger than they have often managed in front of their own supporters. Troyes have scored just three times in their last five and have struggled to create enough to trouble opponents.

Toulouse’s unbeaten run against Troyes

The head-to-head record is the storyline here. In the last five meetings, Toulouse have not lost, winning three and drawing two. They scored 14 goals and conceded only three, including a 4-1 home win in February 2023 and a 3-0 away win in August 2022. The 6-1 victory in a July 2022 friendly is not a competitive result, but it underlines how comfortably Toulouse have often controlled this fixture. The two draws, a 1-1 in Troyes in 2021 and a goalless game in Toulouse in 2020, came in Ligue 2 and show that the visitors have occasionally made it difficult.

Injuries on both sides

Toulouse have two players listed as doubtful: M. Niflore, who is struggling with an injury, and S. Oppong, who has a calf problem. Troyes will be without three players: Y. Kone and A. Ouzenadji, both sidelined by knee injuries, and Y. Titi, who is out with a leg injury. I. Boura is also doubtful with a hip problem.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Toulouse, and the football behind that view is clear. Toulouse have the better recent attacking output and the advantage of playing at home, while Troyes arrive on a five-match losing run with a depleted squad and a leaky defence away from home. The game may still be open enough for the visitors to find a goal, but Toulouse should have enough quality to make the difference and keep their record against Troyes intact.

Toulouse 2-1 Estac Troyes