Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 Le Havre's losing run piles on the pressure as Marseille look to cash in
Le Havre head to the Orange Vélodrome bottom of Ligue 1 and still without a league win this season, with pressure mounting after a run of defeats.
📍 Orange Vélodrome
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Le Havre | 0.7 | 1.6 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.03 – 1.06
- Double chance
- 1X · 81%12 79% · X2 40%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Expected corners
- 8.95.5 – 3.4 · Over 9.5: 41%
- Expected cards
- 4.22.1 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 62%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Marseille
- Power ratings: Marseille +0.31 goals per game (5th of 18 in Ligue 1), Le Havre -0.32 (16th).
- Marseille's attack (1.81 goals per game) meets Le Havre's defence (1.49 conceded per game).
- Le Havre's attack (1.17) meets Marseille's defence (1.50).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 2.03 – 1.06 goals: Marseille 60%, draw 21%, Le Havre 19%.
Absences
Marseille
- OutD. Cornelius · Hip Injury
Le Havre
- OutE. Jelert · Thigh Injury
- OutF. Mambimbi · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutL. Mpasi-Nzau · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutT. Pembele · Muscle Injury
- OutA. Toure · Knee Injury
- OutS. Zagadou · Knee Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Marseille
- A. Gouiri5 goals in 10 games41%
- A. Harit2 goals in 9 games20%
- H. Abdelli2 goals in 10 games19%
Le Havre
- M. Samatta2 goals in 7 games25%
- J. Maja1 goals in 7 games12%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Marseille are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with Le Havre.
- 6 of the last 7 meetings between the two sides had over 2.5 goals.
- Le Havre have lost their last 3 matches.
Season stats
| · | Marseille | Le Havre | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-4 | 1-0-2 | 0-2-5 | 0-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 2.33 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.67 |
| xG per game | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| xG against per game | 2.10 | 2.60 | 1.72 | 1.65 |
| Scored in | 71% | 100% | 57% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 33% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | 43% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 67% | 57% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 100% | 57% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 100% | 43% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 67% | 29% | 33% |
| Shots per game | 13.1 | 13.3 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Shots on target | 37% | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Possession | 58% | 56% | 50% | 48% |
| Passes per game | 587.7 | 577.7 | 408.6 | 399.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | – | 84% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 4.4 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per game | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Cards per game | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Fouls per game | 10.7 | 8.3 | 14.6 | 14.3 |
League matches this season (Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Marseille
- 0-151 / 3
- 16-300 / 1
- 31-452 / 0
- 46-604 / 2
- 61-752 / 3
- 76-90+5 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Le Havre
- 0-150 / 3
- 16-300 / 0
- 31-450 / 1
- 46-600 / 3
- 61-753 / 1
- 76-90+2 / 3
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 |
Next matches
Marseille
- Sun 1 NovMarseille – ToulouseLigue 1
- Thu 5 NovBayer Leverkusen – MarseilleUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovLens – MarseilleLigue 1
Le Havre
- Fri 30 OctLe Havre – Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- Sun 8 NovLe Havre – LorientLigue 1
- Fri 20 NovEstac Troyes – Le HavreLigue 1
Head-to-head: last 7 meetings
Marseille 7 wins · 0 draws · Le Havre 0 wins
- 10/05/2026Le Havre0-1MarseilleLigue 1
- 18/10/2025Marseille6-2Le HavreLigue 1
- 10/05/2025Le Havre1-3MarseilleLigue 1
- 05/01/2025Marseille5-1Le HavreLigue 1
- 19/05/2024Le Havre1-2MarseilleLigue 1
- 08/10/2023Marseille3-0Le HavreLigue 1
- 22/01/2012Marseille3-1Le HavreCoupe de France
The most recent meeting between these two sides ended 1-0 to Marseille in May, a narrow away win in Le Havre. It sums up where both clubs stand: Marseille grinding out results, while Le Havre are still searching for their first league win of the season.
Le Havre’s search for a first win
Le Havre sit bottom of Ligue 1 on two points from seven matches, and they have yet to win a league game this season. Their goal difference of -6 says a lot: five goals scored and eleven conceded. Across their last five matches they have managed just four goals and conceded nine, with four defeats in that run. Every game now carries extra weight, and a trip to the Orange Vélodrome offers little comfort.
Marseille’s momentum
Marseille are 10th with nine points and a goal difference of +4. Their attack has been the driver, scoring ten times in their last five league matches, an average of two a game, while conceding eight. Over the season they have three wins and four defeats, and they arrive keen to turn their recent scoring into another three points at home.
Marseille’s grip on this fixture
The head-to-head record is one-sided. Marseille have won each of the last five meetings, scoring 17 goals to Le Havre’s five, including a 6-2 win at the Vélodrome in October 2025 and a 5-1 win in January 2025. Le Havre have not taken a point from any of them.
Absences at both ends
Le Havre are missing a significant group of players: E. Jelert (thigh), F. Mambimbi and L. Mpasi-Nzau (both Achilles), T. Pembele (muscle), and A. Toure and S. Zagadou (both knee) are all out. Marseille are without D. Cornelius because of a hip injury, while A. Koum Mbondo is a doubt with illness.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Marseille, and the football reasons follow. They create more and have the stronger home record, while Le Havre have scored only five times all season and are missing six players. Marseille have shipped goals recently, so Le Havre may find a consolation, but the pressure on the visitors should tell.
Marseille 2-1 Le Havre
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