Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 Auxerre's injury crisis meets a struggling Le Mans
Auxerre and Le Mans are separated by just three points in the lower half of Ligue 1, but Auxerre's long injury list will shape how they approach this Sunday meeting.
📍 Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Le Mans | 1.4 | 2.1 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.73 – 1.42
- Double chance
- 12 · 76%1X 69% · X2 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Expected corners
- 9.35.8 – 3.5 · Over 9.5: 45%
- Expected cards
- 4.61.9 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 66%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Auxerre
- Power ratings: Auxerre -0.28 goals per game (13th of 18 in Ligue 1), Le Mans -0.30 (14th).
- Auxerre's attack (1.24 goals per game) meets Le Mans's defence (1.85 conceded per game).
- Le Mans's attack (1.55) meets Auxerre's defence (1.52).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.73 – 1.42 goals: Auxerre 45%, draw 24%, Le Mans 31%.
Absences
Auxerre
- OutA. Diousse · Knee Injury
- OutS. Fofana · Groin Injury
- OutR. Labeau Lascary · Injury
- OutB. Okoh · Knee Injury
- OutM. Senaya · Hamstring Injury
- OutT. Siwe · Muscle Injury
Le Mans
- OutA. Bourabaa · Ankle Injury
- OutE. Colas · Injury
- OutY. Larouci · Groin Injury
- OutH. Voyer · Thigh Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Auxerre
- C. Archer4 goals in 5 games45%
- D. Namaso3 goals in 7 games30%
- L. Sy1 goals in 7 games11%
Le Mans
- L. Mafouta4 goals in 7 games32%
- D. Guèye1 goals in 7 games8%
- L. Calodat1 goals in 7 games8%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Auxerre have scored in each of their last 12 matches.
- 6 of Auxerre’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 6 of Le Mans’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Auxerre’s last 8 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Le Mans’s last 8 matches.
- Auxerre are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings with Le Mans.
Season stats
| · | Auxerre | Le Mans | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-4 | 2-0-1 | 1-3-3 | 0-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.57 | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.43 | 1.33 | 2.14 | 2.33 |
| xG per game | 1.65 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 1.92 |
| xG against per game | 2.03 | 0.99 | 2.23 | 2.83 |
| Scored in | 100% | 100% | 86% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 67% | 86% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 67% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 67% | 86% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% | 33% | 57% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 12.1 | 14.0 | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.1 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Shots on target | 42% | 43% | 39% | 36% |
| Possession | 45% | 47% | 45% | 35% |
| Passes per game | 385.7 | 403.0 | 409.1 | 308.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 79% | 80% | – |
| Corners per game | 5.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 7.6 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Cards per game | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Fouls per game | 15.1 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 14.3 |
League matches this season (Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Auxerre
- 0-150 / 3
- 16-301 / 2
- 31-453 / 1
- 46-601 / 4
- 61-754 / 3
- 76-90+1 / 5
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Le Mans
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-301 / 2
- 31-453 / 3
- 46-604 / 3
- 61-750 / 3
- 76-90+1 / 3
Usual formation: 3-1-4-2
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 |
Next matches
Auxerre
- Sun 1 NovStrasbourg – AuxerreLigue 1
- Sat 7 NovAuxerre – Paris FCLigue 1
- Sat 21 NovMonaco – AuxerreLigue 1
Le Mans
- Sat 31 OctEstac Troyes – Le MansLigue 1
- Sun 8 NovLe Mans – MonacoLigue 1
- Sun 22 NovMarseille – Le MansLigue 1
Head-to-head: last 5 meetings
Auxerre 3 wins · 1 draws · Le Mans 1 wins
- 01/08/2020Auxerre3-2Le MansFriendlies Clubs
- 10/01/2020Le Mans0-1AuxerreLigue 2
- 02/08/2019Auxerre2-0Le MansLigue 2
- 25/01/2013Auxerre1-1Le MansLigue 2
- 20/08/2012Le Mans3-1AuxerreLigue 2
Only three points separate Auxerre from Le Mans in the lower half of Ligue 1, yet the bigger gap at the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps this Sunday may be the one in the treatment room. Auxerre are 13th of 18 with nine points from seven matches, while Le Mans sit 16th on six. Both clubs need to start climbing before the season hardens.
Auxerre’s home edge against Le Mans’ away problems
Auxerre have been the steadier side on their own patch. They have won two of their three home league games, scoring four times and conceding four. Their last five matches have brought eight goals and nine conceded, which points to a team that is still finding its shape.
Le Mans have struggled on the road. They have yet to win away this season, managing one draw and two defeats in three trips, and they have scored just four away goals while conceding seven.
Five meetings, mostly Auxerre’s way
The recent history favours the home side. Auxerre have won three of the last five meetings, including a 2-0 victory in August 2019 and a 1-0 win in January 2020 in Ligue 2. Their other win came in a 3-2 friendly in 2020, and the only draw was a 1-1 in 2013. Le Mans’ sole victory in that stretch was a 3-1 win in August 2012.
Auxerre’s injury list
Auxerre are missing six players: A. Diousse and B. Okoh (both knee problems), S. Fofana (groin), M. Senaya (hamstring), T. Siwe (muscle) and R. Labeau Lascary. That is a significant loss of depth for a side already conceding regularly, and it leaves the coaching staff with fewer options for rotation and for balancing the team.
Le Mans are not without worries either. A. Bourabaa is out with an ankle injury, while E. Colas and H. Voyer are doubtful, with Voyer carrying a thigh problem.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Auxerre, and the numbers point to a tight, open game rather than a one-sided contest. Auxerre’s home record and their advantage in head-to-head history give them the edge, and they should carry more threat in attack. Their depleted squad, though, means they are unlikely to dominate, and Le Mans have shown enough to make it a competitive afternoon.
Auxerre 2-1 Le Mans
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