DFB Pokal · Round of 32 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Freiburg and Wolfsburg meet again with recent results tilting the balance
A place in the DFB Pokal last 16 is at stake, and recent meetings suggest Freiburg head into this tie with the psychological edge.
📍 Europa-Park-Stadion
Preview written:
Match report
SC Freiburg won 3-2 in a game that went back and forth early and was decided late. Igor Matanović opened the scoring in the 6' with an assist from Christian Günter, Kento Shiogai equalised for VfL Wolfsburg in the 8' (assist Timon Wellenreuther) and put Wolfsburg ahead in the 43' (assist Muhammed Damar). Keisuke Goto levelled for Freiburg in the 75' (assist Vincenzo Grifo) and then scored the winner in the 90+2' with an assist from Philipp Lienhart. There were no red cards.
The stats favour Freiburg: 61% possession, 17 total shots to Wolfsburg's 6 and xG 1.72–1.48. K. Goto was the top-rated player (9.4). The PreviaXI model had predicted a 2-1 win for the home side with probabilities of home 55%, draw 22% and away 23%.
Goals
- 6'Igor Matanović · Christian Günter · SC Freiburg
- 8'Kento Shiogai · Timon Wellenreuther · VfL Wolfsburg
- 43'Kento Shiogai · Muhammed Damar · VfL Wolfsburg
- 75'Keisuke Goto · Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg
- 90+2'Keisuke Goto · Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg
Cards
- 36'Yuito Suzuki · SC Freiburg
- 55'Saël Kumbedi Nseke · VfL Wolfsburg
- 57'Alexander Bernhardsson · VfL Wolfsburg
- 60'Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg
- 68'Kento Shiogai · VfL Wolfsburg
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: K. Goto (SC Freiburg) 9.4
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
SC Freiburg · 4-2-3-1
- 21F. MüllerG
- 29P. TreuD
- 28M. GinterD
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 30C. GünterD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 32V. GrifoM
- 31I. MatanovićF
Coach: J. Schuster
VfL Wolfsburg · 4-4-2
- 1T. WellenreutherG
- 26S. KumbediD
- 6H. WahlD
- 33CleitonD
- 21J. MæhleD
- 37E. RexhbeçajM
- 27M. ArnoldM
- 5Vinicius SouzaM
- 20M. DamarM
- 17A. BernhardssonF
- 7K. ShiogaiF
Coach: Tobias Strobl
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026SC Freiburg1-1VfL Wolfsburg
- 2025VfL Wolfsburg3-4SC Freiburg
- 2025VfL Wolfsburg0-1SC Freiburg
- 2024SC Freiburg3-2VfL Wolfsburg
- 2024SC Freiburg1-2VfL Wolfsburg
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.06 – 1.27
- Double chance
- 12 · 78%1X 77% · X2 45%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%Over 1.5: 85% · Over 3.5: 43%
- Both teams score
- 63%
- Clean sheet
- 28% – 13%SC Freiburg–VfL Wolfsburg
- Half-time result
- 1 · 42%X 36% · 2 22%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 35%X/1 16% · 2/2 13%
- Expected corners
- 11.07.4 – 3.6 · Over 9.5: 64%
- Expected cards
- 3.91.4 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 55%
- Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-110%
- 2-08%
- 1-07%
- 3-17%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Cup pressure and what’s at stake
Round of 32 football in the DFB Pokal carries the simple prize of survival: win and progress, lose and your cup run is over. For Freiburg, who also carry early-season UEFA competition commitments, a home knockout tie is a chance to assert control; for Wolfsburg, this is an opportunity to upset a side that has had the upper hand lately.
Recent form snapshots
Freiburg arrive with an encouraging start to their season: one away fixture produced a 5-0 tally and their last recorded result was a win. Wolfsburg’s opening matches have been mixed — a draw featured prominently and their scoring and concession pattern shows both threat and vulnerability. Defensive numbers in the opening fixtures hint that Freiburg have been harder to breach at times, while Wolfsburg have been involved in higher-scoring encounters.
What past meetings tell us
The last five meetings between these teams favour Freiburg. Since April 2024 the pair have met five times in the Bundesliga: Freiburg won three (including a 4-3 away win and narrow 1-0 and 3-2 victories), Wolfsburg won once, and there was one draw. Several of those games were high on goals and late drama, but overall Freiburg have had the clearer edge in results and momentum from these direct meetings.
Squad news
There are no reported absences listed for either side ahead of the tie.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model prefers Freiburg and the recent head-to-head pattern — a home side used to getting the better of Wolfsburg in recent seasons — supports a narrow home win. Freiburg look likelier to control the match and create more chances from open play, while Wolfsburg retain enough attacking potency to make this tight. Expect a competitive tie decided by a single goal.
SC Freiburg 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg
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