DFB Pokal · Round of 32 
Our pick2–0Correct result
Leverkusen's dominance in focus ahead of DFB Pokal tie with Nürnberg
Bayer Leverkusen arrive at this Round of 32 DFB Pokal tie as the clear favourites on paper, while 1. FC Nürnberg bring solid second-division form. Recent meetings, however, have been one-way affairs in Leverkusen's favour.
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Match report
Bayer Leverkusen won 5-2 after a match that saw early Nürnberg goals before a Leverkusen comeback. At 13' Rafael Lubach (assist William Bøving) put 1. FC Nürnberg ahead, and at 30' Sigurd Haugen (assist William Bøving) made it 0-2. Edmond Tapsoba pulled one back for Bayer Leverkusen at 41' (assist Aleix García) and added a second for Leverkusen at 49'. Patrik Schick converted a penalty at 70', Jonas Hofmann scored at 78' (assist Aleix García) and Lucas Vázquez completed the scoring at 89'.
The stats favour Leverkusen: 60% possession, 25 total shots to Nürnberg's 5 and 10 shots on target to 3; xG 3.11–1.02 and 13 corners to 3. Top-rated player was Aleix García (8.6). PreviaXI predicted 2-0 with home-win 68%, draw 18%, away 14%.
Goals
- 13'Rafael Lubach · William Bøving · 1. FC Nürnberg
- 30'Sigurd Haugen · William Bøving · 1. FC Nürnberg
- 41'Edmond Tapsoba · Aleix García · Bayer Leverkusen
- 49'Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen
- 70'Patrik Schick (pen.) · Bayer Leverkusen
- 78'Jonas Hofmann · Aleix García · Bayer Leverkusen
- 89'Lucas Vázquez · Bayer Leverkusen
Cards
- 73'Equi Fernández · Bayer Leverkusen
- 81'Giannis Masouras · 1. FC Nürnberg
- 86'Lucas Vázquez · Bayer Leverkusen
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Aleix García (Bayer Leverkusen) 8.6
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Bayer Leverkusen · 4-2-3-1
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 8R. AndrichM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 23N. TellaF
Coach: Carles Martínez
1. FC Nürnberg · 4-2-3-1
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 20F. OttoD
- 14Andrea CeresoliD
- 6A. MarhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 11W. BøvingM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 18Rafael LubachM
- 9S. HaugenF
Coach: M. Klose
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Last meetings
- 2019Bayer Leverkusen2-0FC Nurnberg
- 2018FC Nurnberg1-1Bayer Leverkusen
- 2014FC Nurnberg1-4Bayer Leverkusen
- 2013Bayer Leverkusen3-0FC Nurnberg
- 2013FC Nurnberg0-2Bayer Leverkusen
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Strong
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.41 – 1.00
- Double chance
- 1X · 86%12 82% · X2 32%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%Over 1.5: 86% · Over 3.5: 44%
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Clean sheet
- 37% – 9%Bayer Leverkusen–1. FC Nürnberg
- Half-time result
- 1 · 51%X 34% · 2 15%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 46%X/1 19% · X/X 10%
- Expected corners
- 10.16.8 – 3.3 · Over 9.5: 54%
- Expected cards
- 4.31.8 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 60%
- Most likely scores
- 2-010%
- 2-110%
- 1-18%
- 3-08%
- 3-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
League positions set the scene
Bayer Leverkusen come into the DFB Pokal Round of 32 while listed second in their continental competition table (UEFA Europa League, rank 2 with nine points from three games and a winning streak noted). 1. FC Nürnberg sit second in the 2. Bundesliga with 18 points from nine matches and a mixed run of results domestically.
A match with different stakes
For Leverkusen this is an opportunity to assert domestic cup credentials on top of their European form. For Nürnberg, a second-division side placed high in their league, the tie is a chance to test themselves against top-level opposition and continue momentum from their league performances.
Leverkusen’s recent hoodoo over Nürnberg
The recent head-to-head record heavily favours Bayer Leverkusen. In five meetings stretching back to 2013, Leverkusen have avoided defeat: wins include 3-0 (2013), 1-4 (2014), 2-0 (2019) and 0-2 away in 2013, with only a 1-1 draw in Nürnberg in December 2018. That sequence underlines Leverkusen’s control in these fixtures.
Form under the microscope
Leverkusen’s early-season numbers show an emphatic attacking start: four goals in their only away fixture so far and a clean sheet record to their name. Their last-five form reads strongly; attacking and defensive indicators sit well above Nürnberg’s. Nürnberg have been steadier at home in the 2. Bundesliga and arrive with a draw-heavy opening in the domestic campaign, scoring and conceding once in their solitary away outing recorded here.
Tactical edge and model view
PreviaXI’s model points to Leverkusen creating more chances and carrying the greater expected goals edge, so the tie looks like Leverkusen controlling possession and opportunities while Nürnberg may be compact and look to hit on transitions. That statistical view aligns with the historical head-to-head dominance.
Our prediction
Given Leverkusen’s recent superiority in these fixtures, their early-season attacking form and PreviaXI’s model favouring the hosts, a tight but controlled home win looks most likely. Bayer Leverkusen should have enough to see off the challenge.
Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg
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