DFB Pokal · Round of 32 
Our pick2–1
Hoffenheim's hoodoo over Kiel shapes DFB Pokal tie in Kiel
Holstein Kiel arrive off a bright start at home, but recent meetings have belonged exclusively to 1899 Hoffenheim — a trend that will hang over this Round of 32 DFB Pokal tie.
📍 Holstein-Stadion
Preview written:
Match report
Holstein Kiel 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim (after 90 minutes, Hoffenheim won 4-3 on penalties). Adam Hložek opened the scoring in the 11th minute for 1899 Hoffenheim. Adrian Kapralik equalised in the 23rd minute for Holstein Kiel, assisted by Hiroki Sekine. The match went to a penalty shootout which 1899 Hoffenheim won 4-3. No red cards were shown.
The stats show 1899 Hoffenheim had more possession (56% to 44%) and more corners (10 to 6), while Holstein Kiel had slightly more total shots (16 to 13) and a higher xG (1.11 to 0.86); shots on target were 5 for Holstein Kiel and 4 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Top-rated player: A. Hložek (7.5). PreviaXI predicted 0-1 with 26% home win, 26% draw, 48% away win.
Goals
- 11'Adam Hložek · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 23'Adrian Kapralik · Hiroki Sekine · Holstein Kiel
Cards
- 41'Adam Hložek · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 42'Ivan Nekić · Holstein Kiel
- 45+7'Wouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 68'Leon Avdullahu · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 74'Tim Walter · Holstein Kiel
- 76'Oliver Baumann · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 105+2'Koki Machida · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 106'Adrian Kapralik · Holstein Kiel
- 117'Giorgi Kvilitaia · Holstein Kiel
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: A. Hložek (1899 Hoffenheim) 7.5
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Holstein Kiel · 4-1-4-1
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 32H. SekineD
- 5N. MadsenD
- 13I. NekićD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 28J. MeffertM
- 20A. KaprálikM
- 27I. UgohM
- 15K. DavidsenM
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 19P. HarresF
Coach: T. Walter
1899 Hoffenheim · 4-2-3-1
- 37L. PhilippG
- 15V. GendreyD
- 2R. HranáčD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 13BernardoD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 27A. KramarićM
- 10A. HložekM
- 22A. PrassM
- 19T. LemperleF
Coach: C. Ilzer
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 4.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 20261899 Hoffenheim3-1Holstein Kiel
- 2025Holstein Kiel1-31899 Hoffenheim
- 20241899 Hoffenheim3-2Holstein Kiel
- 20211899 Hoffenheim5-1Holstein Kiel
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.13 – 1.63
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 52% · X2 74%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Clean sheet
- 20% – 32%Holstein Kiel–1899 Hoffenheim
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 22% · 2 37%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 30%X/2 16% · 1/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.64.9 – 5.7 · Over 9.5: 60%
- Expected cards
- 4.21.7 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 0-110%
- 1-29%
- 0-28%
- 0-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Holstein’s sharp start at the Holstein-Stadion
Holstein Kiel have begun their campaign with a win in the only match counted in recent form: one game, two goals scored and a clean sheet. That positive opening underlines home confidence ahead of the DFB Pokal Round of 32 fixture at Holstein-Stadion.
A cup tie with different league backgrounds
This is a cross-competition tie: Holstein Kiel are competing in the 2. Bundesliga (sitting 13th with eight points from nine games), while 1899 Hoffenheim are listed under UEFA Europa League in the provided domestic-league context. The cup setting gives Holstein a chance to test themselves against an opponent who has been carving out wins against them in recent meetings.
Hoffenheim’s dominance in recent meetings
The most striking narrative is Hoffenheim’s unbeaten run against Holstein in their last five encounters. Those results include friendly and competitive wins: 3-1 (July 29, 2026), 3-1 (Jan 18, 2025, Bundesliga), 3-2 (Aug 24, 2024, Bundesliga) and 5-1 (Oct 26, 2021, DFB Pokal). Across those matches Hoffenheim have been the side more often finding the net and controlling the outcomes.
Form snapshot
Both teams come into the tie on winning starts in the current season records provided: Holstein with 2 goals and a shutout in their fixture; Hoffenheim with four goals and no goals conceded in theirs. Recent scoring trends favour Hoffenheim for productivity, while Holstein will rely on home support and defensive organisation.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours a narrow away win, seeing a low-scoring game with Hoffenheim edging it: Holstein Kiel 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim’s recent head-to-head superiority and greater goal output in the opening fixtures suggest they will be the more dangerous side, but this will be tight at the Holstein-Stadion and decided by one moment of quality.
Pick recorded at publication (differs from the model, listed as unverified): Holstein Kiel 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim
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