Can Union Berlin trouble Freiburg’s top-three charge?

Freiburg have the stronger position

SC Freiburg can strengthen their place in the Bundesliga’s top three on Sunday, while Union Berlin need points to move away from the bottom end of the table. After eight matches, Freiburg are third on 16 points; Union sit 16th on seven, a gap of 13 places and nine points.

The contrast is sharp, but the visitors have a recent head-to-head record that gives them reason to believe they can make this awkward for the home side.

Freiburg’s home edge, Union’s resilience

Freiburg have won five, drawn one and lost two of their eight league games, scoring 18 goals and conceding 10. At home, they have taken three wins from four, with 12 goals scored and five conceded. Their most recent league match ended in victory.

Union’s overall numbers are less convincing: one win, four draws and three defeats, with seven goals scored and 19 conceded. Yet they are unbeaten in four, having drawn their last three. Their latest league match also ended level.

The problem is their away record. Union have drawn once and lost twice in three league trips, scoring only once and conceding 12 goals. Freiburg, by contrast, have been much more productive at home.

Union have had the better of recent meetings

The last five meetings have brought three Union wins and two draws, with Freiburg failing to win any of them. The most recent came in March, when Union won 1-0 at Freiburg. Three of those five encounters had two goals or fewer, suggesting the visitors have often kept this matchup tight.

That history offers Union a route to trouble the favourites, but repeating it will require a major improvement on their away performances.

The key is Union’s attacking threat

Union have scored only three goals across their last five league matches, while conceding nine. Freiburg have also let in nine over their last five, so their defence has not been flawless, but they have scored eight in that spell.

The home side’s stronger scoring output and record at Europa-Park-Stadion give them the clearest route to control. Union’s recent run of draws may help them stay competitive, but their lack of away goals is a significant obstacle.

Our prediction

Union’s unbeaten sequence and head-to-head record make them capable of frustrating Freiburg, but the hosts have the stronger league position and a far better home scoring record. PreviaXI’s model leans towards Freiburg, with a narrow win the likeliest outcome.

SC Freiburg 1-0 Union Berlin