Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Knockout stakes in Reus as fourth-tier Reddis face third-tier Barakaldo
Reddis sit ninth in Segunda División RFEF Group 2 with 11 points from eight games; a Cup win would be a statement against higher-tier Barakaldo, who sit 15th in Primera División RFEF Group 1.
📍 Estadi Municipal de Reus
Preview written:
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Reddis | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Barakaldo | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.21 – 1.05
- Double chance
- 12 · 70%1X 69% · X2 61%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%Over 1.5: 67% · Over 3.5: 19%
- Both teams score
- 46%
- Clean sheet
- 35% – 30%Reddis–Barakaldo
- Half-time result
- X · 46%1 29% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%X/X 20% · 2/2 18%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-012%
- 0-011%
- 0-110%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
What this tie delivers for each club
Reddis (Segunda División RFEF, fourth tier) come into the Copa del Rey clash knowing progression would be both a morale boost and a measurable scalp against Barakaldo, a club playing one tier above them in the Primera División RFEF. For Barakaldo, surviving the Round of 128 would be about avoiding an upset and conserving momentum while juggling league expectations — they sit 15th with 10 points from nine matches.
How recent league form frames the cup night
Both sides show mixed league form. Reddis have collected 11 points from eight games and their recent run reads DDWLW, suggesting resilience at home in bursts. Barakaldo have 10 points from nine and a sequence of DWLDD, a quieter pattern that points to tight margins in their results. The different competitive levels — fourth-tier Reddis versus third-tier Barakaldo — give the hosts a clear opportunity to exploit local confidence, while the visitors will aim for professional discipline to avoid a cup scare.
Tactical tilt and what to expect
PreviaXI’s model projects a low-scoring, tight affair with slightly more chances for the home side. Expect cautious approaches early on, with set-pieces and transitional moments likely to decide the match rather than open, end-to-end football. Home advantage at Estadi Municipal de Reus and Reddis’s sharper expected goal number suggest the hosts could edge a narrow win.
Our prediction
A tight cup tie that edges in favour of the hosts thanks to home momentum and a compact defensive display from Reddis. The model’s most likely score reflects a single decisive moment rather than a high-scoring game.
Reddis 1-0 Barakaldo
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