Copa del Rey Round of 128: lower-league Cieza set up a David vs Goliath test with Granada CF

What progression means for both clubs

Cieza arrive as a fourth-placed side in Segunda División RFEF Group 3 (14 points from seven matches, form WWWDL). Granada CF are operating two tiers higher in Spain’s Segunda División, fifth in their table with 20 points from 11 and a run of four wins in five. For Cieza, moving into the next round would be a landmark cup scalp — national exposure, a morale boost for a side punching above its division and a reward for a positive league start. For Granada, passage is about avoiding an upset, protecting squad confidence and maintaining momentum during a busy league campaign.

Recent runs that set the tone

The two teams head into the tie with winning sequences in domestic play: Cieza’s early-season run shows league form defined by wins mixed with draws and a defeat, while Granada’s streak of mostly victories underlines why they’re favourites on paper. Both sides have yet to record competitive cup minutes reflected in season aggregates, so freshness and match rhythm will be key.

Tactical edge and model backing

PreviaXI’s model gives Cieza the narrow edge and projects a low-scoring contest — expected goals read 1.64 for Cieza and 0.99 for Granada, a sign that the home side could create slightly better chances in a compact tie. The model’s most likely outcome is a slender home victory; this aligns with the idea of a disciplined lower-league side making the most of set pieces and brief attacking moments against a higher-ranked opponent.

Our prediction

This is a tight, knockout encounter where a single Cieza moment could decide the tie and Granada will need to break down a deep block while managing the risk of the upset. Expect a scrappy, close game with the home side nicking it late.
Cieza 1-0 Granada CF