Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 Lille look to extend their grip on Monaco in Ligue 1 clash
Lille have won three of the last four meetings with Monaco, and the sides meet on Sunday level on 14 points at the Stade Louis II.
📍 Stade Louis II
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Lille | 1.4 | 0.7 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.40 – 1.28
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 66% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Expected corners
- 8.94.5 – 4.4 · Over 9.5: 40%
- Expected cards
- 4.22.1 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 61%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Monaco
- Power ratings: Monaco +0.26 goals per game (6th of 18 in Ligue 1), Lille +0.41 (3rd).
- Monaco's attack (1.64 goals per game) meets Lille's defence (1.13 conceded per game).
- Lille's attack (1.54) meets Monaco's defence (1.38).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 25% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.40 – 1.28 goals: Monaco 40%, draw 26%, Lille 34%.
Absences
Monaco
- OutE. Dier · Muscle Injury
- OutS. Idumbo · Groin Injury
Lille
- OutH. Igamane · Knee Injury
- OutT. Santos · Knee Injury
- OutA. Ueda · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulO. Sahraoui · Coach's decision
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Monaco
- Paris Josua Brunner8 goals in 9 games38%
- L. Camara2 goals in 11 games10%
- E. Diop1 goals in 5 games8%
Lille
- D. Bakwa2 goals in 9 games13%
- O. Giroud2 goals in 10 games11%
- E. Mbappé1 goals in 7 games8%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches.
- Lille are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings with Monaco.
Season stats
| · | Monaco | Lille | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-1 | 2-1-0 | 4-2-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| xG per game | 1.17 | 1.55 | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| xG against per game | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.55 | 2.32 |
| Scored in | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 33% | 57% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 67% | 43% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 100% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 67% | 29% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 33% | 14% | 0% |
| Shots per game | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 14.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 7.3 |
| Shots on target | 38% | 42% | 44% | 52% |
| Possession | 49% | 48% | 50% | 50% |
| Passes per game | 506.4 | 511.0 | 480.3 | 461.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88% | 87% | – |
| Corners per game | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 5.3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| Cards per game | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Fouls per game | 11.7 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 10.3 |
League matches this season (Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Monaco
- 0-152 / 0
- 16-301 / 0
- 31-452 / 1
- 46-603 / 3
- 61-752 / 1
- 76-90+0 / 1
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Lille
- 0-152 / 1
- 16-303 / 0
- 31-451 / 0
- 46-600 / 0
- 61-752 / 1
- 76-90+3 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 |
Next matches
Monaco
- Sun 1 NovParis FC – MonacoLigue 1
- Thu 5 NovMonaco – FC NordsjaellandUEFA Europa Conference League
- Sun 8 NovLe Mans – MonacoLigue 1
Lille
- Fri 30 OctLille – LensLigue 1
- Tue 3 NovBodo/Glimt – LilleUEFA Champions League
- Sun 8 NovRennes – LilleLigue 1
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Monaco 2 wins · 3 draws · Lille 5 wins
- 10/05/2026Monaco0-1LilleLigue 1
- 24/08/2025Lille1-0MonacoLigue 1
- 22/02/2025Lille2-1MonacoLigue 1
- 18/10/2024Monaco0-0LilleLigue 1
- 24/04/2024Monaco1-0LilleLigue 1
- 29/10/2023Lille2-0MonacoLigue 1
- 14/05/2023Monaco0-0LilleLigue 1
- 23/10/2022Lille4-3MonacoLigue 1
- 06/05/2022Lille1-2MonacoLigue 1
- 19/11/2021Monaco2-2LilleLigue 1
Lille arrive in the Principality with the better recent record in this fixture, having beaten Monaco in three of their last four meetings. It is a rivalry that has tilted one way for some time, and Sunday’s Ligue 1 meeting is a chance to see whether that run holds.
Level on points, separated by goal difference
Both sides have 14 points after seven rounds, with Lille fourth and Monaco fifth in an 18-team table. Lille’s goal difference of +5 against Monaco’s +4 is the only thing separating them, so this is a meeting between two teams with little margin for error.
Form: steady Lille, sharper Monaco at home
Lille have won four, drawn two and lost one of their seven league games, and they have conceded just three goals in their last five. Monaco share that season record, but they have been more prolific: seven goals in their last five, although they have also conceded six. At home they have won twice and drawn once without defeat, averaging two goals per game.
Head-to-head: Monaco’s long wait for a win
The last four meetings show a clear pattern. Lille won 2-1 in February 2025, 1-0 in August 2025 and 1-0 again in May 2026, with the only other result a goalless draw in October 2024. Monaco’s most recent win over Lille came in April 2024, and they have scored just once across the last three encounters. Lille have found the net in each of those games.
Team news: Lille’s longer list
Monaco are without E. Dier (muscle injury) and S. Idumbo (groin injury). Lille are missing H. Igamane and T. Santos (both knee injuries) and A. Ueda (foot injury), while O. Sahraoui is a doubt whose availability rests with the coach.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Monaco narrowly, and the numbers point to a tight, low-scoring game rather than a goal feast. Monaco’s home form and their scoring at the Stade Louis II tip the balance slightly, while Lille’s recent defensive solidity keeps the margin thin. Expect a cagey contest in which a single moment could decide it.
Monaco 1-0 Lille
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