Premier League · Matchday 8 Manchester United vs Bournemouth: Level on Points, Separated by Small Margins
Manchester United have drawn four of their seven league games this season. Now they face a Bournemouth side just one point behind them, with both teams hunting a decisive edge at Old Trafford.
📍 Old Trafford
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Bournemouth | 1.3 | 1.9 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.87 – 1.36
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 73% · X2 52%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams score
- 64%
- Expected corners
- 10.25.5 – 4.7 · Over 9.5: 56%
- Expected cards
- 4.41.6 – 2.8 · Over 3.5: 64%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Manchester United
- Power ratings: Manchester United +0.40 goals per game (4th of 20 in Premier League), Bournemouth +0.23 (7th).
- Manchester United's attack (1.71 goals per game) meets Bournemouth's defence (1.40 conceded per game).
- Bournemouth's attack (1.63) meets Manchester United's defence (1.31).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.87 – 1.36 goals: Manchester United 48%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 27%.
Absences
Manchester United
- OutP. Dorgu · Hamstring Injury
- OutK. Mainoo · Injury
- OutB. Sesko · Leg Injury
- OutL. Shaw · Injury
- OutM. Ugarte · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulT. Heaton · Abdominal strain
- DoubtfulA. Heaven · Illness
- DoubtfulL. Martinez · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulM. Rashford · Hip Injury
Bournemouth
- OutJ. Araujo · Thigh Injury
- OutA. Scott · Thigh Injury
- OutA. Toth · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulE. J. Kroupi · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulV. Milosavljevic · Lacking Match Fitness
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes4 goals in 11 games30%
- B. Mbeumo4 goals in 11 games30%
- Matheus Cunha2 goals in 11 games15%
Bournemouth
- M. Tavernier5 goals in 11 games23%
- J. Kluivert3 goals in 9 games16%
- Evanilson3 goals in 10 games16%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- Manchester United have not won in their last 6 matches.
- Bournemouth have won their last 3 matches.
- Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- 6 of Bournemouth’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Manchester United are unbeaten in the last 4 meetings with Bournemouth.
Season stats
| · | Manchester United | Bournemouth | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-2 | 1-1-1 | 1-3-3 | 0-1-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.86 | 3.00 |
| xG per game | 1.63 | 2.12 | 1.79 | 1.13 |
| xG against per game | 1.41 | 1.58 | 1.17 | 1.35 |
| Scored in | 71% | 67% | 86% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 29% | 33% | 14% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 67% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 67% | 86% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 33% | 57% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 33% | 43% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 19.7 | 20.3 | 15.1 | 10.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Shots on target | 25% | 30% | 34% | 42% |
| Possession | 55% | 55% | 50% | 42% |
| Passes per game | 524.4 | 505.0 | 436.7 | 383.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | – | 80% | 79% |
| Corners per game | 6.1 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per game | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Cards per game | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fouls per game | 9.6 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 14.3 |
League matches this season (Premier League). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Manchester United
- 0-150 / 0
- 16-300 / 2
- 31-452 / 1
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-754 / 0
- 76-90+3 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Bournemouth
- 0-152 / 2
- 16-301 / 0
- 31-452 / 3
- 46-603 / 3
- 61-750 / 2
- 76-90+0 / 4
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Newcastle | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Next matches
Manchester United
- Sat 31 OctChelsea – Manchester UnitedPremier League
- Tue 3 NovManchester United – AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- Sun 8 NovManchester United – Aston VillaPremier League
Bournemouth
- Sat 31 OctBournemouth – LeedsPremier League
- Thu 5 NovSparta Praha – BournemouthUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovIpswich – BournemouthPremier League
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Manchester United 4 wins · 4 draws · Bournemouth 2 wins
- 20/03/2026Bournemouth2-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 15/12/2025Manchester United4-4BournemouthPremier League
- 31/07/2025Manchester United4-1BournemouthPremier League - Summer Series
- 27/04/2025Bournemouth1-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 22/12/2024Manchester United0-3BournemouthPremier League
- 13/04/2024Bournemouth2-2Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 09/12/2023Manchester United0-3BournemouthPremier League
- 20/05/2023Bournemouth0-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 03/01/2023Manchester United3-0BournemouthPremier League
- 04/07/2020Manchester United5-2BournemouthPremier League
Manchester United have drawn four of their seven league games this season, and that habit sits at the heart of a Sunday meeting with Bournemouth that could hardly be tighter. United are 13th on seven points, while Bournemouth are 15th on six, one point adrift in a 20-team table.
Level on points, separated by goal difference
The gap between the sides is a single point and four goals of goal difference. United are level at zero, while Bournemouth sit on minus four. Both have scored roughly the same amount, with United on 10 goals and Bournemouth on 9, and both have leaked plenty. United have conceded 10, Bournemouth 13. In a crowded middle of the table, a win at Old Trafford would open a gap that matters.
Form: draws and not much else
Both sides’ recent records are dominated by stalemates. United have four draws and one defeat in their last five league games. Bournemouth have two draws, two defeats and one win in theirs. Each side has won just once in seven league matches this season, so neither has yet built the kind of run that would settle the argument.
Head-to-head: goals galore
The last five meetings have produced 22 goals, an average of 4.4 per game. The sequence reads 2-2, 4-4, 4-1, 1-1 and 0-3, so three of the five have reached four goals or more. The December 4-4 draw is the standout, and Bournemouth’s 3-0 win in December 2024 is the only clear result in the run.
Team news: a long list for United
United will be without P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw and M. Ugarte. T. Heaton, A. Heaven, L. Martinez and M. Rashford are all doubtful. Bournemouth are missing J. Araujo, A. Scott and A. Toth, with E. J. Kroupi and V. Milosavljevic also doubtful.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model narrowly favours United, and the football behind that lean is easy to see. United have the stronger attacking record at home, and Bournemouth have conceded nine goals in their three away league games. Expect a open contest in which the home side edges the chances, though a repeat of this fixture’s recent goal-heavy form would not be a surprise.
Manchester United 2-1 Bournemouth
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Premier League table All previews that day
More Premier League previews
Premier League Crystal Palace Newcastle Our pick2–1
Newcastle head to Selhurst Park just one point and three places ahead of Crystal Palace, with both sides searching for the advantage that has eluded them so far. A tight, open contest looks likely.
Read preview Premier League Hull City Brentford Our pick0–1
Hull City have won none of their last five Premier League games, and a long injury list leaves them short of options as Brentford visit the MKM Stadium on Sunday.
Read preview Premier League Liverpool Brighton Our pick2–1
Brighton travel to Anfield on Sunday hoping to extend a run that has lifted them into the top three, against a Liverpool side still searching for consistency. Both teams are missing several key players.
Read preview Premier League Sunderland Leeds Our pick0–1
Sunderland face a Leeds side they beat only in March, with the hosts searching for a first win of the run. Leeds arrive seventh and in far better shape.
Read preview