Premier League · Matchday 8 Palace vs Newcastle: One Point Apart, One Edge to Find
Newcastle head to Selhurst Park just one point and three places ahead of Crystal Palace, with both sides searching for the advantage that has eluded them so far. A tight, open contest looks likely.
📍 Selhurst Park
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 2.0 |
PreviaXI model
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.65 – 1.40
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 68% · X2 58%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Expected corners
- 10.04.5 – 5.5 · Over 9.5: 54%
- Expected cards
- 4.12.0 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 59%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Crystal Palace
- Power ratings: Crystal Palace -0.11 goals per game (14th of 20 in Premier League), Newcastle -0.05 (12th).
- Crystal Palace's attack (1.41 goals per game) meets Newcastle's defence (1.50 conceded per game).
- Newcastle's attack (1.45) meets Crystal Palace's defence (1.52).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 22% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.65 – 1.40 goals: Crystal Palace 42%, draw 26%, Newcastle 32%.
Absences
Crystal Palace
- OutC. Riad · Knee Injury
- OutT. Tomiyasu · Calf Injury
- DoubtfulD. Henderson · Foot Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Larsen · Injury
- DoubtfulQ. Timber · Injury
Newcastle
- OutE. Jaouen · Muscle Injury
- OutV. Livramento · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulA. Elanga · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulJ. Ramsey · Thigh Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Crystal Palace
- Yeremy Pino4 goals in 11 games23%
- J. Strand Larsen4 goals in 11 games22%
- D. Kamada3 goals in 11 games18%
Newcastle
- H. Barnes3 goals in 9 games20%
- J. Willock3 goals in 9 games18%
- Y. Wissa1 goals in 9 games7%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Trends
- 7 of Crystal Palace’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Season stats
| · | Crystal Palace | Newcastle | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-4 | 1-0-2 | 2-2-3 | 1-0-2 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.29 | 2.00 | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.43 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| xG per game | 1.35 | 1.23 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| xG against per game | 2.11 | 2.41 | 1.75 | 1.56 |
| Scored in | 57% | 100% | 86% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | 14% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 100% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 100% | 86% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 100% | 71% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% | 100% | 57% | 67% |
| Shots per game | 10.1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Shots on target | 37% | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Possession | 43% | 39% | 51% | 53% |
| Passes per game | 404.4 | 355.0 | 434.1 | 451.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | – | 85% | – |
| Corners per game | 3.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 6.0 |
| Corners against per game | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Cards per game | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Fouls per game | 10.0 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 10.7 |
League matches this season (Premier League). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Crystal Palace
- 0-152 / 4
- 16-300 / 2
- 31-453 / 3
- 46-602 / 5
- 61-751 / 0
- 76-90+1 / 3
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Newcastle
- 0-153 / 2
- 16-300 / 0
- 31-453 / 3
- 46-601 / 3
- 61-753 / 1
- 76-90+2 / 3
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Newcastle | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Next matches
Crystal Palace
- Sat 31 OctTottenham – Crystal PalacePremier League
- Thu 5 NovCrystal Palace – 1899 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League
- Sun 8 NovCrystal Palace – LiverpoolPremier League
Newcastle
- Mon 2 NovNewcastle – EvertonPremier League
- Sat 7 NovFulham – NewcastlePremier League
- Sat 21 NovNewcastle – ArsenalPremier League
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Crystal Palace 2 wins · 4 draws · Newcastle 4 wins
- 12/04/2026Crystal Palace2-1NewcastlePremier League
- 04/01/2026Newcastle2-0Crystal PalacePremier League
- 16/04/2025Newcastle5-0Crystal PalacePremier League
- 30/11/2024Crystal Palace1-1NewcastlePremier League
- 24/04/2024Crystal Palace2-0NewcastlePremier League
- 21/10/2023Newcastle4-0Crystal PalacePremier League
- 21/01/2023Crystal Palace0-0NewcastlePremier League
- 09/11/2022Newcastle0-0Crystal PalaceLeague Cup
- 03/09/2022Newcastle0-0Crystal PalacePremier League
- 20/04/2022Newcastle1-0Crystal PalacePremier League
Newcastle arrive in south London with a narrow advantage and little room for error. They sit 11th on eight points from seven matches, a single point and three places above Crystal Palace, who are 14th. Neither side has built real momentum this season, which makes Sunday’s meeting a chance to find the edge both have been missing.
Eight points and a fragile lead
Palace’s clearer problem is their goal difference of minus eight, against Newcastle’s minus four. For two sides in the lower half, every result now carries weight, and whoever wins here could open daylight between them and the teams below.
Palace’s livelier run, Newcastle’s leaky defence
Palace have the slightly better recent record. Their last five league results read LWDLW, with two wins and a draw, and they have scored eight times in that span. At Selhurst Park, however, the picture is more mixed: one win and two defeats from three home matches, with six goals scored.
Newcastle have collected one win in their last five (LLWLD) and have scored just six goals in that run. Their defensive concerns are equally clear, having conceded twelve times, an average of 2.4 per game. Away from home they have won once from three, scoring four and conceding eight.
A rivalry that swings both ways
The recent history between these sides is finely balanced. Palace won 2-1 at home in April, while Newcastle replied with a 2-0 win in January. The most emphatic result came in April 2025, when Newcastle won 5-0 on Tyneside. Across the last five meetings, both clubs have won twice and drawn once.
Injury doubts on both sides
Palace will be without C. Riad (knee) and T. Tomiyasu (calf), while D. Henderson (foot), J. Larsen and Q. Timber are doubtful. Newcastle will miss E. Jaouen (muscle) and V. Livramento (knee), with A. Elanga (knee) and J. Ramsey (thigh) also in doubt. Those late fitness checks could shape both line-ups.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Crystal Palace, and we see the case for that lean. Palace’s home crowd and slightly sharper recent scoring give them the edge in a contest that looks tight but capable of producing goals at both ends. Newcastle have shown they can score on the road, yet their defensive record suggests Palace have a real chance to make the difference.
Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle
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