Lorient seek a breakthrough against unbeaten Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Lorient. The hosts arrive higher in the Ligue 1 table, but Brest’s head-to-head record offers a clear counterpoint.
📍 Stade du Moustoir
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All Matchday 9 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.45 – 1.17
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 70% · X2 57%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 27%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 31% – 23%Lorient–Stade Brestois 29
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 33% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 26%2/2 17% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 8.74.5 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 38%
- Expected cards
- 3.61.5 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 49%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-010%
- 2-19%
- 0-18%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Lorient
- Power ratings: Lorient +0.04 goals per game (12th of 18 in Ligue 1), Stade Brestois 29 +0.05 (11th).
- Lorient's attack (1.31 goals per game) meets Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.47 conceded per game).
- Stade Brestois 29's attack (1.52) meets Lorient's defence (1.27).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 27% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.45 – 1.17 goals: Lorient 43%, draw 27%, Stade Brestois 29 30%.
Key trends
- Both teams scored in 7 of Stade Brestois 29’s last 8 matches.
- Lorient have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- 6 of Stade Brestois 29’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Stade Brestois 29 are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings with Lorient.
Absences
Lorient
- OutP. Katseris · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulB. Fadiga · Muscle Injury
Stade Brestois 29
- OutB. Chardonnet · Calf Injury
- OutR. Le Guen · Broken Leg
- DoubtfulG. Versini · Leg Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Lorient
- J. Makengo1 goals in 8 games14%
- N. Cadiou1 goals in 8 games14%
- I. Baldé1 goals in 6 games14%
Stade Brestois 29
- K. Doumbia4 goals in 8 games21%
- L. Ajorque3 goals in 8 games16%
- P. Mboup2 goals in 8 games11%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Lorient | Stade Brestois 29 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-2 | 2-1-1 | 2-3-3 | 1-2-1 |
| Goals scored per game | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG per game | 1.10 | 1.09 | 2.11 | 1.55 |
| xG against per game | 1.11 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.46 |
| Scored in | 75% | 100% | 88% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 62% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | 12% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 88% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 38% | 50% | 88% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 50% | 75% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 25% | 38% | 25% |
| Shots per game | 9.8 | 10.5 | 17.0 | 15.2 |
| Shots on target per game | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Shots on target | 32% | 40% | 35% | 33% |
| Possession | 47% | 48% | 47% | 44% |
| Passes per game | 492.0 | 517.2 | 416.0 | 369.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | – | 81% | 78% |
| Corners per game | 3.1 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Corners against per game | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Cards per game | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Fouls per game | 9.2 | 9.0 | 14.2 | 15.8 |
League matches this season (Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Lorient
- 0-150 / 1
- 16-300 / 1
- 31-452 / 1
- 46-602 / 2
- 61-752 / 1
- 76-90+1 / 0
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Stade Brestois 29
- 0-154 / 2
- 16-304 / 0
- 31-452 / 1
- 46-602 / 3
- 61-751 / 3
- 76-90+2 / 2
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +11 | 20 | |
| 2 | 9 | +6 | 18 | |
| 3 | 9 | +8 | 17 | |
| 4 | 9 | +6 | 17 | |
| 5 | 9 | +1 | 16 | |
| 6 | 9 | +7 | 15 | |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | 15 | |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | 14 | |
| 9 | 9 | +3 | 13 | |
| 10 | 8 | +1 | 12 | |
| 11 | 9 | -1 | 10 | |
| 12 | 9 | -2 | 10 | |
| 13 | 9 | -10 | 10 | |
| 14 | 8 | +2 | 9 | |
| 15 | 9 | -8 | 8 | |
| 16 | 9 | -9 | 8 | |
| 17 | 9 | -7 | 7 | |
| 18 | 9 | -11 | 2 |
Table as of
Next matches
Lorient
- Sun 8 NovLe Havre – LorientLigue 1
- Sun 22 NovLorient – RennesLigue 1
- Sat 28 NovParis Saint Germain – LorientLigue 1
Stade Brestois 29
- Sun 8 NovStade Brestois 29 – LyonLigue 1
- Sat 21 NovStrasbourg – Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- Fri 27 NovStade Brestois 29 – Paris FCLigue 1
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Lorient 3 wins · 2 draws · Stade Brestois 29 5 wins
- 07/02/2026Stade Brestois 292-0LorientLigue 1
- 19/10/2025Lorient3-3Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 20/07/2024Lorient1-1Stade Brestois 29Friendlies Clubs
- 31/03/2024Lorient0-1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 20/12/2023Stade Brestois 294-0LorientLigue 1
- 07/05/2023Lorient2-1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 09/10/2022Stade Brestois 291-2LorientLigue 1
- 16/07/2022Stade Brestois 291-0LorientFriendlies Clubs
- 16/07/2022Stade Brestois 291-0LorientFriendlies Clubs
- 27/02/2022Stade Brestois 290-1LorientLigue 1
Lorient have ground to make up
Stade Brestois 29 travel to Lorient on Monday with a five-match unbeaten run against their hosts to protect. Lorient sit 10th in Ligue 1 with 12 points from eight games, while Brest are 13th on nine. The standings favour the home side, but recent meetings have consistently proved difficult for Lorient.
A contrast in recent form
Lorient have won two, drawn one and lost one of their four home league matches, scoring five goals and conceding four. Across their last five games, they have scored five and let in four.
Brest have scored eight goals in their last five, but conceded seven. Their league record stands at two wins, three draws and three defeats, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in their eight matches. They have nevertheless shown more attacking output than Lorient overall, with 14 goals to Lorient’s seven.
Brest’s unbeaten run
Brest have won three and drawn two of the last five meetings with Lorient, including a 2-0 victory in February. The most recent league match at Lorient, in October 2025, finished 3-3; Brest also won 1-0 away in March 2024.
That record gives the visitors reason for confidence, though Lorient’s better league position and home results make this a different challenge.
Absences to manage
Lorient will be without P. Katseris because of a muscle injury, while B. Fadiga is questionable with the same issue. Brest are missing B. Chardonnet and R. Le Guen, with calf and broken-leg injuries respectively; G. Versini is a doubt with a leg injury.
Brest’s attack against Lorient’s solidity
Brest’s 14 goals in eight league games underline their greater scoring return, and they have been especially productive early in matches. Lorient, by contrast, have conceded only six goals in eight and have kept five clean sheets. Their defensive record at home could help contain Brest’s attack, even as the visitors draw on their favourable head-to-head history.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Lorient, whose defensive record and home results give them the edge in a close contest. Brest’s recent scoring and unbeaten run in this fixture point to a competitive match, but Lorient’s home advantage could prove decisive.
Lorient 1-0 Stade Brestois 29

