Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Lorient
Doha time
Stade Brestois 29

Lorient seek a breakthrough against unbeaten Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Lorient. The hosts arrive higher in the Ligue 1 table, but Brest’s head-to-head record offers a clear counterpoint.

📍 Stade du Moustoir

Preview written: · Updated after team news: · Team news checked:

Match facts

Recent form

LorientDLWWD
Stade Brestois 29LLWDL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·ScoredConceded
Lorient0.90.8
Stade Brestois 291.81.5

PreviaXI model

Lorient43%Draw27%Stade Brestois 2930%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score
1-0
Expected goals (model)
1.45 – 1.17
Double chance
12 · 73%1X 70% · X2 57%
Over 2.5 goals
49%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 27%
Both teams score
53%
Clean sheet
31% – 23%Lorient–Stade Brestois 29
Half-time result
X · 43%1 33% · 2 24%
Half-time / full-time
1/1 · 26%2/2 17% · X/X 16%
Expected corners
8.74.5 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 38%
Expected cards
3.61.5 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 49%
Most likely scores
  1. 1-113%
  2. 1-010%
  3. 2-19%
  4. 0-18%
  5. 0-08%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Why the model leans towards Lorient

  • Power ratings: Lorient +0.04 goals per game (12th of 18 in Ligue 1), Stade Brestois 29 +0.05 (11th).
  • Lorient's attack (1.31 goals per game) meets Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.47 conceded per game).
  • Stade Brestois 29's attack (1.52) meets Lorient's defence (1.27).
  • Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 27% more goals.
  • Put together, the model expects 1.45 – 1.17 goals: Lorient 43%, draw 27%, Stade Brestois 29 30%.

Power ratings: Ligue 1 →

Key trends

  • Both teams scored in 7 of Stade Brestois 29’s last 8 matches.
  • Lorient have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
  • 6 of Stade Brestois 29’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
  • Stade Brestois 29 are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings with Lorient.

Absences

Lorient

  • OutP. Katseris · Muscle Injury
  • DoubtfulB. Fadiga · Muscle Injury

Stade Brestois 29

  • OutB. Chardonnet · Calf Injury
  • OutR. Le Guen · Broken Leg
  • DoubtfulG. Versini · Leg Injury

Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.

Chance to score

Lorient

  • J. Makengo1 goals in 8 games14%
  • N. Cadiou1 goals in 8 games14%
  • I. Baldé1 goals in 6 games14%

Stade Brestois 29

  • K. Doumbia4 goals in 8 games21%
  • L. Ajorque3 goals in 8 games16%
  • P. Mboup2 goals in 8 games11%

Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.

Season stats

·LorientStade Brestois 29
·AllHomeAllAway
Won-drawn-lost3-3-22-1-12-3-31-2-1
Goals scored per game0.881.251.751.50
Goals conceded per game0.751.001.501.50
xG per game1.101.092.111.55
xG against per game1.111.331.251.46
Scored in75%100%88%100%
Clean sheets62%50%0%0%
Failed to score25%0%12%0%
Both teams scored38%50%88%100%
Over 1.5 goals38%50%88%100%
Over 2.5 goals38%50%75%75%
Over 3.5 goals12%25%38%25%
Shots per game9.810.517.015.2
Shots on target per game3.14.25.95.0
Shots on target32%40%35%33%
Possession47%48%47%44%
Passes per game492.0517.2416.0369.0
Pass accuracy84%–81%78%
Corners per game3.13.04.65.0
Corners against per game5.65.24.44.8
Cards per game1.11.01.51.2
Fouls per game9.29.014.215.8

League matches this season (Ligue 1). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.

When goals come

Lorient

  • 0-150 / 1
  • 16-300 / 1
  • 31-452 / 1
  • 46-602 / 2
  • 61-752 / 1
  • 76-90+1 / 0

Usual formation: 3-4-2-1

Stade Brestois 29

  • 0-154 / 2
  • 16-304 / 0
  • 31-452 / 1
  • 46-602 / 3
  • 61-751 / 3
  • 76-90+2 / 2

Usual formation: 4-2-3-1

Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsRecent form
1Paris Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2Lille953112:6+618WDDWL
3Lyon952215:7+817WLWLW
4Paris FC952216:10+617WLWLW
5Rennes951320:19+116LWLWL
6Marseille950420:13+715WWWWL
7Monaco943212:10+215LDLDW
8Nice942313:12+114WWLWW
9Lens941416:13+313LWWWL
10Lorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11Toulouse924312:13-110LDWDW
12Strasbourg931517:19-210WLLLL
13Auxerre931513:23-1010LDWLW
14Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
15Angers92259:17-88LDLLW
16Estac Troyes92257:16-98WDLLL
17Le Mans914411:18-77LDLLW
18Le Havre90279:20-112LLLLL

Table as of

Next matches

Lorient

  • Sun 8 NovLe Havre – LorientLigue 1
  • Sun 22 NovLorient – RennesLigue 1
  • Sat 28 NovParis Saint Germain – LorientLigue 1

Stade Brestois 29

  • Sun 8 NovStade Brestois 29 – LyonLigue 1
  • Sat 21 NovStrasbourg – Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • Fri 27 NovStade Brestois 29 – Paris FCLigue 1

Head-to-head: last 10 meetings

Lorient 3 wins · 2 draws · Stade Brestois 29 5 wins

  • 07/02/2026Stade Brestois 292-0LorientLigue 1
  • 19/10/2025Lorient3-3Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 20/07/2024Lorient1-1Stade Brestois 29Friendlies Clubs
  • 31/03/2024Lorient0-1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 20/12/2023Stade Brestois 294-0LorientLigue 1
  • 07/05/2023Lorient2-1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • 09/10/2022Stade Brestois 291-2LorientLigue 1
  • 16/07/2022Stade Brestois 291-0LorientFriendlies Clubs
  • 16/07/2022Stade Brestois 291-0LorientFriendlies Clubs
  • 27/02/2022Stade Brestois 290-1LorientLigue 1

Lorient have ground to make up

Stade Brestois 29 travel to Lorient on Monday with a five-match unbeaten run against their hosts to protect. Lorient sit 10th in Ligue 1 with 12 points from eight games, while Brest are 13th on nine. The standings favour the home side, but recent meetings have consistently proved difficult for Lorient.

A contrast in recent form

Lorient have won two, drawn one and lost one of their four home league matches, scoring five goals and conceding four. Across their last five games, they have scored five and let in four.

Brest have scored eight goals in their last five, but conceded seven. Their league record stands at two wins, three draws and three defeats, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in their eight matches. They have nevertheless shown more attacking output than Lorient overall, with 14 goals to Lorient’s seven.

Brest’s unbeaten run

Brest have won three and drawn two of the last five meetings with Lorient, including a 2-0 victory in February. The most recent league match at Lorient, in October 2025, finished 3-3; Brest also won 1-0 away in March 2024.

That record gives the visitors reason for confidence, though Lorient’s better league position and home results make this a different challenge.

Absences to manage

Lorient will be without P. Katseris because of a muscle injury, while B. Fadiga is questionable with the same issue. Brest are missing B. Chardonnet and R. Le Guen, with calf and broken-leg injuries respectively; G. Versini is a doubt with a leg injury.

Brest’s attack against Lorient’s solidity

Brest’s 14 goals in eight league games underline their greater scoring return, and they have been especially productive early in matches. Lorient, by contrast, have conceded only six goals in eight and have kept five clean sheets. Their defensive record at home could help contain Brest’s attack, even as the visitors draw on their favourable head-to-head history.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Lorient, whose defensive record and home results give them the edge in a close contest. Brest’s recent scoring and unbeaten run in this fixture point to a competitive match, but Lorient’s home advantage could prove decisive.

Lorient 1-0 Stade Brestois 29

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