Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Marseille’s winning run faces a Toulouse test
Marseille have climbed to ninth after three straight league wins and will look to keep the momentum going against Toulouse. The visitors arrive with a steadier, draw-heavy run of form.
📍 Orange Vélodrome
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 9 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Marseille beat Toulouse 2-0, scoring both goals in the first 25 minutes. Amine Harit opened the scoring in the first minute, assisted by Amine Gouiri. Gouiri then added Marseille’s second in the 25th minute, with Igor Paixão providing the assist. There were no red cards.
Toulouse had more possession, with 57% to Marseille’s 43%, and also led 7-3 in shots on target. The expected-goals figures were 1.6 for Toulouse and 1.12 for Marseille, while total shots were close at 14-13 to the visitors. A. Gouiri was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.6. The result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1 Marseille win, which came with a 48% home-win, 23% draw and 29% away-win assessment.
Goals
- 1'Amine Harit · Amine Gouiri · Marseille
- 25'Amine Gouiri · Igor Paixão · Marseille
Cards
- 44'Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille
- 78'CJ Egan-Riley · Marseille
- 86'Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: A. Gouiri (Marseille) 8.6
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Marseille · 4-2-3-1
- 1J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 6T. NnadiM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 9A. GouiriF
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Toulouse · 4-4-2
- 16G. RestesG
- 94I. DialloD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 12C. TapéD
- 15A. DønnumM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 14N. SigurM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 20C. TengstedtF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Toulouse | 1.5 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Marseille | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | +1 | 10 |
Last meetings
- 2026Toulouse0-1Marseille
- 2026Marseille2-2Toulouse
- 2025Marseille2-2Toulouse
- 2025Marseille3-2Toulouse
- 2024Toulouse1-3Marseille
Absences
Marseille
- OutD. Cornelius · Hip Injury
Toulouse
- OutR. Messali · Thigh Injury
- OutM. Niflore · Knee Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.86 – 1.41
- Double chance
- 12 · 77%1X 71% · X2 52%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%Over 1.5: 84% · Over 3.5: 41%
- Both teams score
- 64%
- Clean sheet
- 24% – 16%Marseille–Toulouse
- Half-time result
- 1 · 37%X 37% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 30%2/2 17% · X/1 15%
- Expected corners
- 8.75.4 – 3.3 · Over 9.5: 38%
- Expected cards
- 4.41.9 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 65%
- Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-19%
- 1-27%
- 1-07%
- 2-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A climb within reach
Marseille sit ninth in Ligue 1 with 12 points from eight matches, two places and two points ahead of Toulouse. Their three consecutive league victories have lifted them into the top half, and another win at the Orange Vélodrome would strengthen that progress. Toulouse, 11th on 10 points, have a chance to close the gap, but their recent pattern has brought more draws than wins.
Marseille’s run gathers pace
Marseille’s latest five matches have produced 12 goals for and eight against. Their league form reads three wins after two defeats, a sharp contrast with Toulouse’s run of two draws, a win, another draw and a further win across their last five. Toulouse have scored 10 and conceded six in that spell, so they have been harder to break down, even if their results have offered less momentum.
Marseille have scored 18 goals in eight league games, including 11 at home. Toulouse have been more productive away than at home, scoring nine of their 12 goals on the road, making their threat in Marseille worth watching.
Recent meetings offer goals
The last five meetings have included three Ligue 1 fixtures and one French Cup tie. Marseille won the most recent league encounter 1-0 away, while the previous league meeting in Marseille ended 2-2. The sides have also played out a 2-2 cup draw and exchanged wins in earlier league meetings, including Marseille’s 3-2 home victory in April 2025.
Absences to manage
Marseille will be without D. Cornelius because of a hip injury. Toulouse are missing R. Messali with a thigh injury and M. Niflore with a knee injury.
Toulouse’s away threat
Toulouse’s nine away goals in eight league matches are a notable counterpoint to their modest 12-goal total overall. Marseille, meanwhile, have scored 11 times at home but also conceded eight there, leaving room for the visitors to make an impact. Marseille’s stronger recent results and home scoring give them the edge, though Toulouse’s recent defensive record suggests the hosts may have to work for it.
Our prediction
Marseille’s three-match winning run and greater attacking output at home point towards another victory, but Toulouse have shown they can score away and have conceded fewer goals across their last five. PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts, with a narrow margin between the teams.
Marseille 2-1 Toulouse
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