Serie A · Matchday 10 
Our pick0–1Correct result
Lecce and Genoa seek the edge in a tight Serie A battle
Only one point separates Lecce and Genoa after nine matches, with both looking to turn a narrow standings gap into a valuable advantage. Genoa arrive in better recent defensive form, but Lecce have won the most recent meeting.
📍 Stadio Via del Mare
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 10 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Genoa beat Lecce 2-1. Milutin Osmajić opened the scoring in the 11th minute, assisted by Junior Messias, before Messias made it 2-0 in the 28th minute with Stephan El Shaarawy providing the assist. Lecce pulled a goal back in the 40th minute through Youssef Maleh, with no assist recorded, but Genoa held on for the win. There were no red cards.
Lecce had more possession, 53% to 47%, and registered 18 shots to Genoa’s 13. The hosts also led shots on target 7-3, while Genoa had the higher xG, 1.30 to 0.98. Junior Messias was the top-rated player, with a rating of 9.0. The result matched the model’s predicted Genoa win, though its predicted score was 1-0 and it assigned Genoa a 41% chance of victory.
Goals
- 11'Milutin Osmajić · Junior Messias · Genoa
- 28'Junior Messias · Stephan El Shaarawy · Genoa
- 40'Youssef Maleh · Lecce
Cards
- 59'Mohamed Kaba · Lecce
- 62'Hamed Junior Traorè · Genoa
- 70'Jamil Siebert · Lecce
- 87'E. Di Francesco · Lecce
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Junior Messias (Genoa) 9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Lecce · 4-3-3
- 30W. FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 5J. SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 25A. GalloD
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 79O. NgomM
- 14Y. MalehM
- 11K. N’DriF
- 9N. ŠtulićF
- 99Joël MonteiroF
Coach: E. Di Francesco
Genoa · 3-4-2-1
- 1J. BijlowG
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 22J. VásquezD
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 71S. WiafeM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 25H. TraorèM
- 18M. OsmajićF
Coach: D. De Rossi
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Genoa | 0.9 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Lecce | 9 | -9 | 9 |
Last meetings
- 2026Lecce1-0Genoa
- 2025Genoa0-0Lecce
- 2025Genoa2-1Lecce
- 2025Lecce0-0Genoa
- 2024Genoa2-1Lecce
Absences
Lecce
- OutM. Berisha · Thigh Injury
- OutL. Coulibaly · Thigh Injury
- OutK. Gaspar · Red Card
- OutW. Geubbels · Muscle Injury
- OutI. Ilic · Thigh Injury
- OutS. Pierotti · Ankle Injury
Genoa
- OutE. Havel · Ankle Injury
- OutL. Venturino · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulM. E. Ellertsson · Ankle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.02 – 1.23
- Double chance
- 12 · 72%1X 59% · X2 69%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%Over 1.5: 65% · Over 3.5: 19%
- Both teams score
- 45%
- Clean sheet
- 29% – 36%Lecce–Genoa
- Half-time result
- X · 46%1 24% · 2 30%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 24%X/X 18% · 1/1 17%
- Expected corners
- 9.15.2 – 3.9 · Over 9.5: 43%
- Expected cards
- 3.72.1 – 1.6 · Over 3.5: 51%
- Most likely scores
- 0-113%
- 1-113%
- 1-011%
- 0-010%
- 1-28%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
One point, plenty at stake
Lecce and Genoa are separated by a single point in Serie A, making their meeting at the Stadio Via del Mare a chance for either side to create breathing room in a tightly packed part of the table. Genoa sit 13th on 10 points, one place and one point ahead of 14th-placed Lecce, with both having played nine matches.
The margins are slim, but their goal differences underline the work still to do: Genoa are at -5 and Lecce at -9. A win would give either side a meaningful lift and a decisive edge over a close rival.
Lecce’s defensive test
Lecce have won three and lost six of their opening nine league matches, while Genoa have three wins, one draw and five defeats. Their recent sequences offer different signals: Lecce’s last five league results read LLWLL, whereas Genoa’s are WWLWL.
The contrast is sharper in their latest five matches. Lecce scored five goals but conceded 12; Genoa scored six and let in five. Lecce have conceded 19 goals overall, including 10 in four home games, while Genoa have shipped 13 across their nine matches. The visitors’ more secure recent defending could matter in a contest where one goal may decide the standings swing.
Genoa’s away scoring has been limited, however: they have scored once in three league trips. Lecce have netted four times in four home matches, so the hosts will look to make their own ground count.
Recent meetings favour close margins
The last five Serie A meetings have produced two Lecce wins, two draws and one Genoa victory. Lecce took the latest encounter 1-0 in May, while the previous meeting ended 0-0. Three of the five finished level or were settled by a single goal, pointing to a rivalry with little room between the sides.
Absences could shape the options
Lecce are without M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic and S. Pierotti. Genoa are missing E. Havel and L. Venturino, while M. E. Ellertsson is questionable with an ankle injury.
A narrow call in Genoa’s favour
PreviaXI’s model leans towards Genoa, with the visitors’ stronger recent defensive record offering a footballing basis for that edge. Lecce’s home scoring and their latest head-to-head win keep the contest finely balanced, but Genoa’s greater resistance points to a narrow away success.
Our prediction
Genoa have conceded fewer goals across the season and arrive after allowing just five in their last five matches, compared with Lecce’s 12. Lecce can threaten at home, but Genoa look better placed to find the decisive moment.
Lecce 0-1 Genoa
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