2–1 Full time Sunday 1 November

Our pick1–0Correct result

Lazio’s surge puts Cagliari’s losing run under pressure

Second-placed Lazio meet Cagliari, who sit 11th after three straight defeats. Lazio’s form and recent scoring record make the visitors’ task especially difficult.

📍 Stadio Olimpico

Preview written: Sat 31 Oct 00:36 · Updated after team news: Sat 31 Oct 23:33

All Matchday 10 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Lazio came from behind to beat Cagliari 2-1. M’Bala Nzola put Cagliari ahead in the 20th minute, assisted by Alieu Fadera. Lazio levelled in the 36th minute through Gustav Isaksen, with Tijjani Noslin providing the assist. Andrea Pinamonti scored the winner in the 83rd minute, assisted by Alfonso Pedraza. Cagliari’s Adam Obert was sent off in stoppage time, at 90+1.

Lazio had 74% possession and led the shots count 11-9, while shots on target were 4-3 in their favour. The sides recorded similar expected goals, with Lazio at 1.03 and Cagliari at 1.1. G. Isaksen was the top-rated player, with a rating of 7.8. The result was more favourable to Lazio than the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction, which gave them a 52% chance of winning, compared with 25% for a draw and 23% for a Cagliari win.

Goals

20'M'Bala Nzola · Alieu Fadera · Cagliari
36'Gustav Isaksen · Tijjani Noslin · Lazio
83'Andrea Pinamonti · Alfonso Pedraza · Lazio

Cards

59'Jacopo Fazzini · Cagliari
66'Juan Rodriguez · Cagliari
76'Adam Obert · Cagliari
84'Andrea Pinamonti · Lazio
90+1'Adam Obert · Cagliari

Match stats

LazioCagliari

74%Possession26%

11Shots9

4Shots on target3

1.03Expected goals (xG)1.10

2Corners2

7Fouls18

3Offsides2

2Saves2

⭐ Top-rated player: G. Isaksen (Lazio) 7.8

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Lazio · 4-3-3

35C. MandasG
15R. Floriani MussoliniD
37J. ŠutaloD
25O. ProvstgaardD
17Nuno TavaresD
16D. FrattesiM
21R. BelahyaneM
24K. TaylorM
11G. IsaksenF
14T. NoslinF
10M. ZaccagniF

Coach: G. Gattuso

Cagliari · 4-2-3-1

1E. CaprileG
2Zé PedroD
14A. DeiolaD
15J. RodríguezD
33A. ObertD
8M. AdopoM
4A. RomanoM
39A. FaderaM
70D. MaldiniM
10J. FazziniM
18M'Bala NzolaF

Coach: F. Pisacane

Match facts

Recent form

LazioWWWWW

CagliariWDLLL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Lazio	2.4	0.8
Cagliari	0.9	1.4

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
2	Lazio	9	+15	25
11	Cagliari	9	-5	13

Last meetings

2026Cagliari0-0Lazio
2025Lazio2-0Cagliari
2025Cagliari1-2Lazio
2024Lazio2-1Cagliari
2024Cagliari1-3Lazio

Absences

Lazio

OutA. Furlanetto · Knee Injury
OutA. Gudmundsson · Shoulder Injury
DoubtfulA. Marusic · Muscle Injury
DoubtfulN. Rovella · Calf Injury

Cagliari

OutM. Felici · Knee Injury
OutR. Idrissi · Knee Injury
DoubtfulH. Winks · Back Injury

PreviaXI model

Lazio52%Draw25%Cagliari23%

Model confidence: Medium

Predicted score: 1-0
Expected goals (model): 1.56 – 0.93
Double chance: 1X · 77%12 75% · X2 48%
Over 2.5 goals: 45%Over 1.5: 71% · Over 3.5: 24%
Both teams score: 48%
Clean sheet: 39% – 21%Lazio–Cagliari
Half-time result: X · 43%1 38% · 2 19%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 32%X/1 18% · X/X 16%
Expected corners: 8.85.3 – 3.5 · Over 9.5: 39%
Expected cards: 4.31.7 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 62%
Most likely scores: 1-013%
1-112%
2-010%
2-19%
0-18%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

A sharp contrast in the table

Lazio are second in Serie A with 25 points from nine matches, while Cagliari are 11th on 13. The gap is reflected in their goal difference: Lazio are 15 goals up, and Cagliari are five down. For the visitors, the trip to Rome comes with pressure to halt a run of three consecutive losses.

Lazio, by contrast, have won their last five league matches and remain unbeaten after nine rounds. The stakes are clear: Cagliari need a response, but they face one of the division’s strongest current sides.

Lazio’s momentum, Cagliari’s slide

Lazio have scored 16 goals across their last five matches and conceded four. Their season total stands at 22 goals, including eight in four home games. That attacking output gives them a strong platform at the Stadio Olimpico.

Cagliari’s recent numbers point the other way. They have scored four and conceded 11 across their last five matches, while their league record shows four wins, one draw and four defeats. Their form sequence ends with three losses, and they have scored only eight goals in nine games overall.

Lazio have held the edge

The last five Serie A meetings have produced four Lazio wins and one draw. Lazio won 2-0 in the most recent match at this venue, in November 2025, while the latest meeting finished 0-0 in Cagliari in February 2026.

That history offers Cagliari little comfort, although the goalless draw is a reminder that Lazio did not find a breakthrough in the sides’ most recent encounter.

Injuries to monitor

Lazio will be without A. Furlanetto and A. Gudmundsson, while A. Marusic and N. Rovella are questionable. Cagliari are without M. Felici and R. Idrissi; H. Winks is also questionable.

A narrow home advantage

Lazio’s five-match winning streak and their 16 goals in the last five point to a side with confidence and attacking threat. Cagliari’s recent struggles in front of goal, alongside the 11 they have conceded in that spell, leave little margin for error.

The challenge for the visitors is to make the game more resistant than their recent results suggest. But Lazio’s home record and stronger overall form give them the clearer route to control.

Our prediction

Lazio’s greater attacking production and strong run of results make them favourites, while Cagliari’s recent scoring record suggests they may struggle to respond. PreviaXI’s model also leans towards a home win, with a tight scoreline.

Lazio 1-0 Cagliari

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