Already promoted Slovakia visit Kazakhstan in Astana

The points gap

Slovakia lead League C Group C with 11 points after five matches, four ahead of second-placed Moldova and nine above fourth-placed Kazakhstan. With one match remaining, Slovakia have already secured first place and promotion to League B. Kazakhstan will remain in League C.

Slovakia’s attack against Kazakhstan’s defence

In this competition, Slovakia have scored 11 goals and conceded four across five matches; Kazakhstan have scored six and conceded nine in the same number of games. The home-and-away split points in the same direction: Kazakhstan have conceded four goals in two home matches, while Slovakia have conceded one in two away matches.

That away record offers a counterweight to Kazakhstan’s home scoring: they have scored three goals in two matches at home in this competition, while Slovakia have scored five in two away. A pattern to watch is whether Kazakhstan can find the net early enough to test a Slovakia defence that has kept one clean sheet away from home.

A recent meeting in Slovakia’s favour

Slovakia won the most recent meeting, 2-1 in September in the Nations League. Across the last three meetings, Kazakhstan have two wins and Slovakia one, with no draws, so the longer head-to-head record gives the hosts some encouragement despite the latest result.

Our prediction

Slovakia have the edge: their unbeaten five-match run and stronger scoring record contrast with Kazakhstan’s run without a win in five. A home result remains possible, but the numbers favour an away win rather than a draw or Kazakhstan victory.