Estonia’s defensive record gives them the edge against Bulgaria

Five points between them

The sides drew 0-0 in Bulgaria in September, and Estonia now have the chance to extend their advantage over a team they lead by five points in League C Group D. Estonia are second on nine points after five matches, while Bulgaria sit third on four. The gap can close or widen, but Estonia are not yet level with the group leaders on the information available here.

Estonia’s defence against Bulgaria’s away record

In five UEFA Nations League matches in this competition, Estonia have scored three goals and conceded one, keeping four clean sheets. Bulgaria have also scored three in five, but have conceded ten. That contrast gives Estonia a clear defensive advantage, although Bulgaria’s away record offers some counterweight: in two Nations League away matches, they have scored twice, conceded three, and won once.

The home split also favours Estonia: in two matches in this competition at home, they have one win and one draw, with one goal scored and none conceded. A concrete pattern to watch is whether Estonia can keep Bulgaria’s scoring to a minimum again; Bulgaria’s two away goals in the competition suggest they can still pose a threat.

A goalless recent meeting

The September meeting ended 0-0, the only head-to-head listed. Neither side has won that meeting, which offers a recent example of how a close contest between them could unfold.

Our prediction

The model favours an Estonia win, with the hosts’ defensive record providing the clearest reason for that lean. Bulgaria’s away scoring means a draw remains a plausible alternative, particularly if Estonia cannot turn their home control into more goals.