UEFA Nations League · League C - 6 
Faroe Islands and Moldova separated by two points in League C
Moldova sit one place and two points above the Faroe Islands after five matches. The hosts’ run of five straight draws sets up a close contest, though the model gives them a cautious edge.
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Two points between them
Moldova are second in League C Group C with seven points, two ahead of the Faroe Islands after five matches each. This final group fixture decides second place and a League B/C play-off: a Faroe Islands win would take them above Moldova on eight points, while Moldova will finish second if they avoid defeat.
The Faroe Islands have drawn all five of their UEFA Nations League matches, including both at home. Moldova have two wins, a draw and two defeats in the competition; away, they have split two matches between a win and a loss.
Scoring against a leaky defence
Across their five UEFA Nations League matches, the Faroe Islands have scored seven goals and conceded seven. Moldova have scored five and conceded nine over the same competition sample, suggesting the hosts may find opportunities against a defence that has allowed more goals.
The home-away comparison is less one-sided: the Faroe Islands have scored two and conceded two across two home matches in this competition, while Moldova have scored two and conceded three in two away matches. A pattern to watch is whether the Faroe Islands can turn their home draws into a win; Moldova’s away record includes both a victory and a defeat.
Recent meetings have been tight
The latest meeting, in the UEFA Nations League in September, finished 1-1. Across the last five meetings in all competitions, each side has won once and three games have been drawn; four of those five had two goals or fewer.
Our prediction
The Faroe Islands have a cautious edge, with their scoring over five Nations League matches comparing favourably with Moldova’s goals-against record. But five straight draws for the hosts and Moldova’s mixed away results leave a draw or an away win plausible alternatives.
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Match facts
Recent form
Faroe Islands
- D A Slovakia 2-2
- D A Kazakhstan 2-2
- D H Slovakia 1-1
- D A Moldova 1-1
- D H Kazakhstan 1-1
Moldova
- W H Kazakhstan 2-1
- L H Slovakia 0-4
- W A Kazakhstan 2-1
- D H Faroe Islands 1-1
- L A Slovakia 0-2
Completed matches in our provider’s data, newest first. The listed team’s goals appear first in each score.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Moldova | 1.0 | 1.8 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moldova | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands
- 2023 Faroe Islands 0-1 Moldova
- 2023 Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands
- 2021 Faroe Islands 2-1 Moldova
- 2021 Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.59 – 1.14
- Double chance
- Home win or draw75%Either team wins 70% · Draw or away win 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%Over 1.5: 78% · Over 3.5: 29%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 20%Faroe Islands–Moldova
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 35% · 2 23%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 28%X/X 18% · X/1 15%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Faroe Islands
- Expected goals favour Faroe Islands: 1.59 – 1.14.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 55%, led by a draw at 30%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty.
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