Eredivisie · Matchday 11 
Our pick2–1Missed
Groningen’s firepower meets Sparta’s defensive frailty
Groningen have scored freely but struggled to keep opponents out, while Sparta Rotterdam arrive on a run of heavy defensive concessions. The hosts’ stronger league position and attacking output offer a route to extend their recent advantage.
📍 Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Preview written:
All Matchday 11 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Groningen took the lead after one minute through Jacob Ondrejka, assisted by Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson. Sparta Rotterdam levelled in the 15th minute, with Cedric Hatenboer scoring from Marvin Young’s assist, then Milan Zonneveld put the visitors ahead ten minutes later. Thom Van Bergen made it 2-2 for Groningen in the 29th minute, assisted by Hans Hateboer. The match remained level until the 85th minute, when Andrej Kostić scored to give Sparta Rotterdam a 3-2 win. There were no red cards.
Groningen had 59% possession and led the shot count 20-8, including 10 shots on target to Sparta Rotterdam’s four. The visitors, however, had the higher expected-goals total, 2.48 to 2.18, and won seven corners to two. J. Ondrejka was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.2. The result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1 Groningen win, which gave the home side a 53% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance.
Goals
- 1'Jacob Ondrejka · Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · Groningen
- 15'Cedric Hatenboer · Marvin Young · Sparta Rotterdam
- 25'Milan Zonneveld · Sparta Rotterdam
- 29'Thom Van Bergen · Hans Hateboer · Groningen
- 85'Andrej Kostić · Sparta Rotterdam
Cards
- 5'Tika de Jonge · Groningen
- 36'Bruno Martins Indi · Sparta Rotterdam
- 61'Lushendry Martes · Sparta Rotterdam
- 75'Cedric Hatenboer · Sparta Rotterdam
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: J. Ondrejka (Groningen) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Groningen · 4-3-3
- 1E. VaessenG
- 33H. HateboerD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 24P. ClementM
- 14J. SchreudersF
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 11J. OndrejkaF
Coach: D. Lukkien
Sparta Rotterdam · 5-4-1
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 6N. VerschurenD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 7M. van BergenM
- 10J. ToornstraM
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 11I. BabadiM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
Coach: R. Meijer
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.7 | 2.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | -7 | 9 |
Last meetings
- 2026Sparta Rotterdam2-0Groningen
- 2025Sparta Rotterdam5-2Groningen
- 2025Groningen0-2Sparta Rotterdam
- 2025Sparta Rotterdam1-0Groningen
- 2024Groningen1-0Sparta Rotterdam
Absences
Groningen
- OutM. Jeng · Leg Injury
- OutT. Mercera · Injury
- DoubtfulE. van der Laan · Injury
Sparta Rotterdam
- OutS. Mito · Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.04 – 1.32
- Double chance
- 1X · 77%12 76% · X2 47%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%Over 1.5: 86% · Over 3.5: 43%
- Both teams score
- 65%
- Clean sheet
- 27% – 13%Groningen–Sparta Rotterdam
- Half-time result
- 1 · 41%X 36% · 2 23%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 34%X/1 16% · X/X 13%
- Expected corners
- 11.97.6 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 75%
- Expected cards
- 3.41.6 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 43%
- Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-110%
- 2-07%
- 3-16%
- 2-26%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Groningen’s chance to strengthen their position
Sparta Rotterdam travel to Groningen sitting 14th in the Eredivisie with nine points from 10 matches, seven places and six points behind their hosts. Groningen are eighth on 15 points, with a positive goal difference of three; Sparta’s stands at minus seven.
The contrast is clear: Groningen have the greater attacking output, scoring 24 league goals, while Sparta have conceded 24. Groningen’s own defence is far from secure, though, having allowed 21 goals, so Sparta may find opportunities even as they seek to arrest a difficult run.
Groningen score more, but both sides concede
Groningen have scored 13 goals across their last five matches, an average of 2.6, but have also conceded nine. Their season record is four wins, three draws and three defeats, and their latest five league results read draw, loss, win, win, draw.
Sparta have eight goals and 15 conceded in their last five, with a 3-0 average against. They have won only twice in 10 league games and their latest five results are loss, win, draw, loss, loss. Their defensive record makes Groningen’s productive attack an especially significant threat, although the hosts’ own concession rate leaves the door open.
Sparta have held the recent edge
Sparta won the latest meeting 2-0 in January. They have taken four victories from the last five encounters listed, including a 5-2 win in the KNVB Cup, while Groningen’s only win in that sequence was 1-0 in November 2024. The recent record gives the visitors a reason for confidence, despite the current gap in league form and position.
Injuries affect both squads
Groningen will be without M. Jeng and T. Mercera through injury, while E. van der Laan is questionable. Sparta are missing S. Mito.
Groningen’s attack is the key threat
Groningen’s 24 league goals and recent run of scoring provide the clearest route to victory. Sparta’s 24 goals conceded in 10 matches point to a vulnerability the home side can target, but Groningen’s 21 conceded and just one clean sheet mean a shutout looks far from certain.
Our prediction
Groningen’s stronger league campaign and higher scoring rate make them the more convincing choice, even with Sparta’s recent head-to-head advantage. PreviaXI’s model favours the hosts, and the visitors’ defensive record suggests Groningen can turn their attacking edge into a narrow win, while still conceding.
Groningen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Eredivisie table All previews that day
More Eredivisie previews
Eredivisie 
Excelsior 
Twente Our pick1–2Correct result
Excelsior have lost four of their last five league matches and conceded 14 goals in that run. Fourth-placed Twente arrive with a stronger recent record and a clear opportunity to exploit the hosts’ defensive struggles.
Read preview Eredivisie 
Telstar 
Utrecht Our pick1–2Missed
Utrecht arrive with five players ruled out and goalkeeper Vasilis Barkas listed as questionable. Telstar’s home struggles offer the visitors an opening, but their own defensive record suggests this may be an unsettled contest.
Read preview Eredivisie 
PEC Zwolle 
ADO Den Haag Our pick2–1Correct result
Both sides arrive near the foot of the Eredivisie, with leaky defences and limited wins. PEC Zwolle’s home record is a concern, but ADO Den Haag have yet to win on the road.
Read preview Eredivisie 
Ajax 
AZ Alkmaar Our pick2–1Correct result
Second-placed Ajax have scored 15 goals across their last five matches, but AZ Alkmaar have won four of the last five meetings between the sides. With only one point separating them, the Amsterdam clash could shape the early title race.
Read preview