2–0 Full time Friday 30 October

Our pick1–2Missed

Can Gremio trouble Atletico Paranaense? Recent stalemate sets the tone

Their most recent meeting finished 0-0 in May; Atletico Paranaense arrive as the league favourite while Gremio must chase points to climb out of danger. Absences on both sides and contrasting home/away records shape this Serie A clash.

📍 Arena do Grêmio

Preview written: Thu 29 Oct 18:01

All Matchday 33 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 in Serie A’s 33rd regular-season round. Marlon put the hosts ahead in the 39th minute, and Fabian Balbuena added a second in the 52nd. Both goals came without a listed assist, and there were no red cards.

Atletico Paranaense had 70% possession and eight corners to Gremio’s 30% and six, but Gremio led shots on target 5-4. The visitors recorded 16 total shots to the hosts’ 19, while expected goals were close at 1.37 to 1.47. Gremio goalkeeper Weverton was the top-rated player, with an 8.5 rating. The 2-0 result differed from the pre-match model’s 1-2 prediction; its win probabilities were 36% for Gremio, 27% for a draw and 37% for Atletico Paranaense.

Goals

39'Marlon · Gremio
52'Fabian Balbuena · Gremio

Cards

23'J. Portilla · Atletico Paranaense
29'J. Enamorado · Gremio
37'Leo Derik · Atletico Paranaense
66'Carlos Vinicius · Gremio
69'E. Noriega · Gremio
88'B. Zapelli · Atletico Paranaense
90+2'Weverton · Gremio

Match stats

GremioAtletico Paranaense

30%Possession70%

19Shots16

5Shots on target4

1.47Expected goals (xG)1.37

6Corners8

13Fouls17

2Offsides0

4Saves3

⭐ Top-rated player: Weverton (Gremio) 8.5

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Gremio · 3-4-3

1WevertonG
6Gustavo MartinsD
2Fabián BalbuenaD
82WallaceD
18João PedroM
8Erick NoriegaM
20Mathias VillasantiM
23MarlonM
99José EnamoradoF
95Carlos ViníciusF
9Francis AmuzuF

Atletico Paranaense · 3-4-2-1

1MycaelG
4Arthur DiasD
33Juan Felipe AguirreD
37Lucas EsquivelD
7Steven MendozaM
27Juan PortillaM
14Luiz GustavoM
6Leonardo DerikM
21LeozinhoF
8João CruzF
9Kevin ViverosF

Match facts

Recent form

GremioDDDLW

Atletico ParanaenseWDWLD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Gremio	1.1	1.4
Atletico Paranaense	1.6	1.2

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
17	Gremio	32	-9	34

Last meetings

2026Atletico Paranaense0-0Gremio
2024Atletico Paranaense0-2Gremio
2024Gremio2-0Atletico Paranaense
2023Gremio1-2Atletico Paranaense
2023Atletico Paranaense1-2Gremio

Absences

Gremio

OutJ. Cabral · Muscle Injury
OutDanilo Barbosa · Injury
OutDiego Caito · Muscle Injury
OutJ. Nardoni · Inactive
OutC. Pavon · Muscle Injury

Atletico Paranaense

OutClaudinho · Knee Injury
OutGilberto · Yellow Cards
OutJadson · Yellow Cards
OutC. Teran · Inactive
DoubtfulBruno Baldini · Injury
DoubtfulK. Viveros · Inactive

PreviaXI model

Gremio36%Draw27%Atletico Paranaense37%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 1-2
Expected goals (model): 1.37 – 1.41
Double chance: 12 · 73%1X 63% · X2 64%
Over 2.5 goals: 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
Both teams score: 57%
Clean sheet: 25% – 25%Gremio–Atletico Paranaense
Half-time result: X · 41%1 29% · 2 30%
Half-time / full-time: 2/2 · 22%1/1 21% · X/X 16%
Expected corners: 9.95.1 – 4.8 · Over 9.5: 53%
Expected cards: 5.32.7 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 76%
Most likely scores: 1-113%
1-28%
2-18%
0-18%
1-08%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Stalemate in Curitiba still fresh

The sides last met on 2 May, a goalless draw in Curitiba, and that clean sheet underlines how cagey recent encounters have been. That 0-0 is the baseline for a game where Atletico Paranaense head in as the better-placed team but cannot be guaranteed goals.

What’s on the line in Porto Alegre

This is round 33 of Brazil’s Serie A. Atletico Paranaense sit fourth with 54 points and a +12 goal difference; Gremio are 17th on 34 points and a -9 goal difference. For Gremio, points at Arena do Grêmio are urgently needed to move away from the relegation zone; Atletico are aiming to consolidate a top-four position.

Momentum and recent form

Atletico’s season form shows more consistency (recent five-match form included a DLWDW), while Gremio’s recent sequence is patchier. Over the last five league matches, Atletico have averaged 1.8 goals, compared with Gremio’s 1.0. Gremio are stronger at home historically (7 home wins this season) but have conceded at a rate of about 1.3 goals per home match.

Direct history suggests defensive battles

The last five meetings include two 2-0 wins for Gremio and two narrow away wins for Atletico, plus the recent 0-0 — a mixed picture but one that shows this fixture often produces tight scorelines.

Missing pieces that matter

Gremio will be without a clutch of options: J. Cabral, Danilo Barbosa, Diego Caito and C. Pavon are listed out with muscle injuries or other issues; J. Nardoni is inactive. Atletico Paranaense miss Claudinho through a knee injury, while Gilberto and Jadson are suspended by yellow-card absences; Bruno Baldini is questionable.

Players likely to swing the game

With Claudinho absent, Atletico will need others to step up in attack; their away scoring this season (23 goals) shows they can still test Gremio. Gremio’s home goals come largely in the first hour, so early pressure will be important if they are to unsettle the visitors.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model points to a narrow win for the visitors: Atletico create slightly more and arrive in better league form, while Gremio’s absences weaken their midfield and attacking options. Expect a tight, open game with both sides finding chances late.
Gremio 1-2 Atletico Paranaense

⚑ Report a mistake Editorial policy

Serie A table All previews that day