Serie A · Matchday 33 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Sao Paulo's crisis of availability could decide trip to Bahia
A raft of absences leaves São Paulo light across the pitch as they travel to Arena Fonte Nova; Bahia arrive with home form and league position that could punish their visitors.
📍 Arena Fonte Nova
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Bahia beat Sao Paulo 3-2 in a match that opened early and stayed tense. Rodrigo put Bahia ahead in the 6th minute, assisted by Jean Lucas, and Erick Pulga doubled the lead in the 10th with an assist from Marcos Victor. Sao Paulo pulled one back through Lucas Moura in the 43rd, assisted by Jonathan Calleri, and D. Bobadilla levelled in first-half stoppage (45+5). Marcos Victor restored Bahia’s lead in the 81st, assisted by Erick, which proved decisive. No red cards were shown.
The numbers show Bahia had 47% possession to Sao Paulo’s 53%, and a narrow shot margin, 13 to 14 with 4 and 6 shots on target respectively; xG was 1.13 for Bahia and 0.89 for Sao Paulo. Marcos Victor was the match top-rated player (9.3). PreviaXI had predicted a 1-0 win for the home side, giving Bahia a 51% chance to win, 26% for a draw and 23% for an away win.
Goals
- 6'Rodrigo · Jean Lucas · Bahia
- 10'Erick Pulga · Marcos Victor · Bahia
- 43'Lucas Moura · Jonathan Calleri · Sao Paulo
- 45+5'D. Bobadilla · Sao Paulo
- 81'Marcos Victor · Erick · Bahia
Cards
- 69'Marcos Victor · Bahia
- 70'Sabino · Sao Paulo
- 90+1'G. Santana · Sao Paulo
- 90+2'Lucas Moura · Sao Paulo
- 90+3'Dorival Junior · Sao Paulo
- 90+6'David Duarte · Bahia
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Marcos Victor (Bahia) 9.3
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Bahia · 5-3-2
- 1Ronaldo StradaG
- 99C. OliveraD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 33David DuarteD
- 3M. MorenoD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 5Nicolas AcevedoM
- 11RodrigoM
- 9A. VelizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
Coach: Ceni Rogerio
Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 18WendellM
- 10LucianoF
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 9Jonathan CalleriF
Coach: Junior Dorival
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.2 | 1.1 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | +5 | 50 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | +1 | 43 |
Last meetings
- 2026Sao Paulo2-2Bahia
- 2025Sao Paulo2-0Bahia
- 2025Bahia2-1Sao Paulo
- 2024Bahia0-3Sao Paulo
- 2024Sao Paulo3-1Bahia
Absences
Bahia
- OutKanu · Yellow Cards
- OutLeo Vieira · Knee Injury
Sao Paulo
- OutArtur · Inactive
- OutN. Bosshardt · Inactive
- OutButa · Knee Injury
- OutCauly · Inactive
- OutD. Duarte · Knee Injury
- OutIago Borduchi · Yellow Cards
- OutJonathan Calleri · Inactive
- DoubtfulFerreira · Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.61 – 0.98
- Double chance
- 1X · 77%12 74% · X2 49%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 26%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 37% – 20%Bahia–Sao Paulo
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 38% · 2 20%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 31%X/1 17% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 11.35.9 – 5.4 · Over 9.5: 67%
- Expected cards
- 5.02.3 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 74%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-011%
- 2-010%
- 2-110%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Sao Paulo’s selection headache sets the tone
São Paulo head to Salvador hamstrung by availability issues. The squad list lists several key players missing or inactive — including Artur, N. Bosshardt, Cauly and Jonathan Calleri — plus knee injuries to Buta and D. Duarte and a yellow-card suspension for Iago Borduchi. Ferreira is also listed as questionable with an injury. That level of absenteeism clouds tactical options and weakens São Paulo’s depth ahead of this Serie A round 33 clash.
What’s at stake for both sides
Bahia sit seventh with 50 points from 32 games and a +5 goal difference, still aiming to consolidate a top-half finish. São Paulo are ninth with 43 points and a slim +1 goal difference; they need results to keep pressure on teams above them. For Bahia, a win would strengthen their position; for São Paulo, operating without multiple regulars makes points much harder to secure on the road.
Recent trends that matter
Bahia’s season shows a strong home record: 7 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats from 16 home matches, with 23 goals scored at Arena Fonte Nova and 17 conceded. Their last five results give a mixed picture but the campaign home form has been consistent. São Paulo are better at home than away this season — 10 wins at home versus just 2 on the road — and their away goal return (12, averaging 0.8) suggests they struggle to score when not at their stadium.
Recent head-to-head
The pair have met frequently in recent seasons. In five meetings back to 2024, São Paulo have three wins, Bahia one and a 2-2 draw in May 2026. Those results underline that while São Paulo have had the edge historically, this fixture can produce tight scorelines.
Team news: names and absences
Bahia will be without Kanu (suspended by yellow cards) and Leo Vieira (knee injury). São Paulo’s list of unavailable players is far longer: Artur, N. Bosshardt, Cauly and Jonathan Calleri are listed as inactive; Buta and D. Duarte are ruled out with knee injuries; Iago Borduchi is suspended by yellow cards; Ferreira is questionable with an injury. The numerical disadvantage in personnel and the number of absences across positions are the defining story for the visitors.
Who could decide the game
With São Paulo depleted, attention turns to Bahia’s ability to exploit gaps. Bahia’s home scoring is shared across the season and they have a record of scoring in the opening and late phases of matches. From São Paulo, Ferreira — if fit — would be a player who could alter the visitors’ fortunes; otherwise the side must rely on the remaining forwards and organization without Calleri and Cauly.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours the home side in a low-scoring game given São Paulo’s injuries and Bahia’s home stability. Expect Bahia to control much of the match and for São Paulo to struggle to create consistent chances with so many regulars unavailable.
Bahia 1-0 Sao Paulo
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