Serie A · Matchday 33 
Our pick1–0Missed
Atletico-MG edged Cruzeiro in their last meeting — a top-four battle looms at Arena MRV
Atletico-MG beat Cruzeiro 2-1 in the Copa Do Brasil on 2 September; on Friday the sides meet again in Serie A with both chasing crucial points for the title and continental places. Cruzeiro sit third and Atletico are within touching distance on seven fewer points, so the result will matter for qualification places.
📍 Arena MRV
Preview written:
All Matchday 33 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Cruzeiro beat Atletico-MG 1-0, with the decisive goal arriving in the fourth minute. Kaio Jorge scored for the visitors, assisted by K. Arroyo, and the early strike remained the only goal of the match. There were no red cards.
The teams recorded 17 shots each, but Cruzeiro had the edge in shots on target, 6-2, and expected goals, 2.54 to 1.7. Atletico-MG led possession with 55% and won seven corners to Cruzeiro’s two. The top-rated player was Atletico-MG goalkeeper Gabriel Delfim, rated 7.9. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction for Atletico-MG, with the model assigning a 40% home win, 29% draw and 31% away win.
Goals
- 4'Kaio Jorge · K. Arroyo · Cruzeiro
Cards
- 24'Natanael · Atletico-MG
- 25'Ze Lucas · Cruzeiro
- 42'Matheus Pereira · Cruzeiro
- 69'Matheus Henrique · Cruzeiro
- 83'Jonathan Jesus · Cruzeiro
- 85'William Furtado · Cruzeiro
- 90+9'A. Minda · Atletico-MG
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Gabriel Delfim (Atletico-MG) 7.9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Atletico-MG · 4-2-3-1
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 21Alan FrancoM
- 15Kevin CastañoM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 19ReinierF
Cruzeiro · 4-2-3-1
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 12William FurtadoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 43João MarceloD
- 25Lucas VillalbaD
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 5Zé LucasM
- 99Keny ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Cruzeiro | 1.6 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | +5 | 54 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 32 | +6 | 50 |
Last meetings
- 2026Atletico-MG2-1Cruzeiro
- 2026Cruzeiro1-1Atletico-MG
- 2026Cruzeiro1-3Atletico-MG
- 2026Cruzeiro1-0Atletico-MG
- 2026Atletico-MG2-1Cruzeiro
Absences
Atletico-MG
- OutT. Borbas · Muscle Injury
- OutM. Cassierra · Muscle Injury
- OutCuello · Ribs Injury
- OutFred · Muscle Injury
- OutRuan Tressoldi · Muscle Injury
- OutVitor Hugo · Yellow Cards
- DoubtfulEverson · Foot Injury
Cruzeiro
- OutFelipe Morais · Muscle Injury
- OutGabriel Pec · Broken Leg
- OutL. Sinisterra · Muscle Injury
- DoubtfulK. Arroyo · Injury
- DoubtfulN. Villarreal · Inactive
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.30 – 1.10
- Double chance
- 12 · 71%1X 69% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 22%
- Both teams score
- 49%
- Clean sheet
- 33% – 27%Atletico-MG–Cruzeiro
- Half-time result
- X · 45%1 30% · 2 25%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 24%X/X 19% · 2/2 17%
- Expected corners
- 10.95.9 – 5.0 · Over 9.5: 63%
- Expected cards
- 4.82.1 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 71%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-011%
- 0-010%
- 0-19%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Copa Do Brasil result still fresh
The most recent meeting came on 2 September when Atletico-MG beat Cruzeiro 2-1 in the Copa Do Brasil. That victory gives Atletico confidence heading into a Serie A fixture that has meaningful implications for the race towards the top of the table.
Small margins, big stakes
Cruzeiro occupy third place with 54 points from 32 matches; Atletico-MG are seventh with 50 points from the same number of games. A win for Atletico would close the gap and strengthen their push back into the top positions, while Cruzeiro will want to hang onto or extend their advantage as they hunt direct qualification spots. With only eight league spots above and below contested, this is a clash with clear consequences for the qualification race.
Recent form tells two stories
Form over the last five shows Cruzeiro slightly sharper: Atletico’s last five give a 67% form indicator with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded, while Cruzeiro’s last five read 80% with 12 scored and 7 conceded. Atletico are strong at home this season — 10 wins from 16 home games — and have kept five clean sheets on their ground. Cruzeiro are prolific across the campaign with 51 goals in 32 matches and have built a run that includes more wins on the road than many rivals.
Recent head-to-head edge
Across the last five meetings, Atletico-MG have the upper hand, including wins on 25 January (2-1) and the Copa Do Brasil victory on 2 September. There has also been a 1-1 draw and Cruzeiro wins in May and March, but the recent trend favours the home side.
Selection concerns for both sides
Atletico-MG will be missing several attacking options to muscle injuries: T. Borbas, M. Cassierra, Cuello and Fred are all listed as missing fixtures; defenders Ruan Tressoldi and Vitor Hugo are also absent (Vitor Hugo due to yellow-card suspension). Goalkeeper Everson is questionable with a foot injury. Cruzeiro are without Felipe Morais, Gabriel Pec (broken leg) and L. Sinisterra; K. Arroyo and N. Villarreal are listed as questionable. Those absences shape both managers’ tactical thinking and could blunt attacking firepower.
Men who can decide it
With several forwards missing, decision-making and moments of quality will be key. Atletico rely on their home scoring rhythm — many goals come between 61–90 minutes — while Cruzeiro have shown an ability to score late as well. Individual names are reduced by injuries on both sides, increasing the importance of set pieces and defensive organisation.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model projects a tight, low-scoring game and favours the home side by a small margin; Atletico’s home record and marginally better expected control make a narrow victory plausible. Expect a tight opening and a decisive home goal from a set-piece or late pressure.
Atletico-MG 1-0 Cruzeiro
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